Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of April includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

  The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of April includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Book - April 2021 - Lucror Analytics

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

China Huarong Asset Management / Equity Bottom-Up

The irony.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-huarong-asset-management" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:968:1" rel="noopener">China Huarong Asset Management (2799 HK)</a> was originally set up in 1999 by Beijing, in response to the Asian financial crisis,  to bail out a State-owned bank - ICBC - before listing. Rumours abound the State may resort to bailing out Huarong or risk a domino effect of losses at other (state-owned) entities which have lent to Huarong.
The bailer becomes the bailee?
Huarong's woes are not new. Its chairman, Lai Xiaomin was placed under investigation for graft in April 2018, following which he resigned for "<a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2018/0420/ltn20180420033.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">personal reasons</a>". 
Shortly after, Hong Kong's SFC froze HK$10.17bn of assets in three brokers - this amount is the loss incurred by Huarong. In the SFC's words, a certain person "orchestrated fraudulent schemes by colluding with certain personnel of the management of a listed company [Huarong] or its subsidiaries in 2 suspicious transactions stemming from a loan facility indirectly granted to the Person by the listed company".
Fast forward to the 29 January this year wherein Lai Xiaomin was <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-huarong-lai/former-china-huarong-chairman-executed-after-bribery-conviction-idUSKBN29Y1P2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">executed</a> in what Bloomberg (perhaps) sardonically concluded was an unusually harsh sentence for a bribery conviction. 
Huarong has been <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0401/2021033101720.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">suspended</a> since the 1 April 2021 after failing to despatch its 2020 annual report. In Hong Kong, companies are afforded three months from year-end to do so.
Huarong is not alone - at least 50 Hong Kong-listed companies have failed to report earnings on the March 31 deadline. Last year, 384 Hong Kong companies did not publish annual results by March 31, but were able to continue trading after the exchange and markets regulator relaxed the rules due to the pandemic. This year there was no such arrangement.
But Huarong has come under pressure following a commentary from Caixin Media of a possible bankruptcy. In a commentary dated on Monday, Ling Huawei, managing editor of Caixin Media and Caixin Weekly, discussed the possibility of a China Huarong bankruptcy. “As of mid-2020, Huarong had 160 billion yuan [$20 billion] in net assets, and more than 30 billion yuan in loan-loss provisions,” she wrote “Huarong needs to be thoroughly recapitalised and have the value of its nonperforming assets correctly recalculated. It needs to take a big bath."
The yield on Huarong's US$300mn 3.375% bond due May 2022 has blown out to 23%. 
This has all the hallmarks of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-evergrande-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:479:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK)</a> situation in September last year covered by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> in <a href="https://skr.ma/UvXgU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Evergrande May Be Facing a Funding Squeeze</a>.
The equity here, as might be expected, is the riskier option if the company goes bust. Yet a systematic restructuring process is a more likely outcome here.
Creditors are also often protected but this situation will test both state support of an SOE and how keepwell agreements are treated. The offshore bonds at ~70c look interesting.

The irony.
China Huarong Asset Management (2799 HK) was originally set up in 1999 by Beijing, in response to the Asian financial crisis,  to bail out a State-owned bank - ICBC - before listing. Rumours abound the State may resort to bailing out Huarong or risk a domino effect of losses at other (state-owned) entities which have lent to Huarong.
The bailer becomes the bailee?
Huarong's woes are not new. Its chairman, Lai Xiaomin was placed under investigation for graft in April 2018, following which he resigned for "personal reasons". 
Shortly after, Hong Kong's SFC froze HK$10.17bn of assets in three brokers - this amount is the loss incurred by Huarong. In the SFC's words, a certain person "orchestrated fraudulent schemes by colluding with certain personnel of the management of a listed company [Huarong] or its subsidiaries in 2 suspicious transactions stemming from a loan facility indirectly granted to the Person by the listed company".
Fast forward to the 29 January this year wherein Lai Xiaomin was executed in what Bloomberg (perhaps) sardonically concluded was an unusually harsh sentence for a bribery conviction. 
Huarong has been suspended since the 1 April 2021 after failing to despatch its 2020 annual report. In Hong Kong, companies are afforded three months from year-end to do so.
Huarong is not alone - at least 50 Hong Kong-listed companies have failed to report earnings on the March 31 deadline. Last year, 384 Hong Kong companies did not publish annual results by March 31, but were able to continue trading after the exchange and markets regulator relaxed the rules due to the pandemic. This year there was no such arrangement.
But Huarong has come under pressure following a commentary from Caixin Media of a possible bankruptcy. In a commentary dated on Monday, Ling Huawei, managing editor of Caixin Media and Caixin Weekly, discussed the possibility of a China Huarong bankruptcy. “As of mid-2020, Huarong had 160 billion yuan [$20 billion] in net assets, and more than 30 billion yuan in loan-loss provisions,” she wrote “Huarong needs to be thoroughly recapitalised and have the value of its nonperforming assets correctly recalculated. It needs to take a big bath."
The yield on Huarong's US$300mn 3.375% bond due May 2022 has blown out to 23%. 
This has all the hallmarks of the Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK) situation in September last year covered by Travis Lundy in Evergrande May Be Facing a Funding Squeeze.
The equity here, as might be expected, is the riskier option if the company goes bust. Yet a systematic restructuring process is a more likely outcome here.
Creditors are also often protected but this situation will test both state support of an SOE and how keepwell agreements are treated. The offshore bonds at ~70c look interesting.

China Huarong Asset Management (2799 HK): This Is Manageable

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-479'>Evergrande Real Estate Group</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-21047'>Ronshine China Holdings</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-14882'>Seazen (Formerly Future Land)</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-4153'>Shui On Land</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-8898'>Sino Ocean Land</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-5519'>Suzhou Boamax Tech Group</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Evergrande Real Estate GroupRonshine China HoldingsSeazen (Formerly Future Land)Shui On LandSino Ocean LandSuzhou Boamax Tech Group

Morning Views Asia: Evergrande Real Estate Group, Ronshine China Holdings

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Chinese property sector, including operational trends and regulatory developments, as well as an overview of the FY 2020 results of most developers under our full coverage. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Chinese property sector, including operational trends and regulatory developments, as well as an overview of the FY 2020 results of most developers under our full coverage.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - Chinese Property Update (2021) - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-479'>Evergrande Real Estate Group</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-20934'>Tata Steel Ltd</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Evergrande Real Estate GroupTata Steel Ltd

Morning Views Asia: Evergrande Real Estate Group, Tata Steel Ltd

China

China Evergrande Group is an integrated residential property developer. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in property development, investment, management, finance, internet, health, culture, and tourism markets.

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Evergrande (3333 HK)

Asia HY Trade Book - April 2021 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of April includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also...

Lucror Analytics

China Huarong Asset Management (2799 HK): This Is Manageable

With the benefit of the restructuring of Boashang, Anbang, and Evergrown Bank, China has developed a mature process to address a situation such as...

David Blennerhassett

Morning Views Asia: Evergrande Real Estate Group, Ronshine China Holdings

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Monthly - Chinese Property Update (2021) - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Chinese property sector, including operational trends and regulatory...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: Evergrande Real Estate Group, Tata Steel Ltd

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

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