HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China may bring ahead quota for special purpose bond issuance in 2023 to 2H22. This may potentially at Rmb1.5trn (US$220bn), which will provide big boost to the economy.</li>
<li>For 5M22, the three most important areas of spending of local government bond proceeds are urban construction and industrial park, social services and transport infrastructure.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-state-construction-int-l-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10038:1" rel="noopener">China State Construction Int'l (3311 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-conch-cement-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:159:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-railway-group-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:264:1" rel="noopener">China Railway Group (390 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-conch-venture-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19943:1" rel="noopener">China Conch Venture (586 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports (2020 HK)</a> are the top picks.</li>
</ul>


China may bring ahead quota for special purpose bond issuance in 2023 to 2H22. This may potentially at Rmb1.5trn (US$220bn), which will provide big boost to the economy.
For 5M22, the three most important areas of spending of local government bond proceeds are urban construction and industrial park, social services and transport infrastructure.

China State Construction Int'l (3311 HK), Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK), China Railway Group (390 HK), China Conch Venture (586 HK) and Anta Sports (2020 HK) are the top picks.


China Stimulus: These Are the Key Beneficiaries

Equity Bottom-Up

China Conch Venture Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Following listing of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-conch-environment-protection-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4827:1" rel="noopener">China Conch Environment (587 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-conch-venture-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19943:1" rel="noopener">China Conch Venture (586 HK)</a> is seeking a spin-off of CV Green Energy in A-share market and we view this move positively.</li>
<li>Limited details are currently available, but we think CV Green Energy, which operates WTE businesses, will trade at significantly higher multiples than its Hong Kong peers. </li>
<li>Assuming CV Green Energy to hold all Conch Venture's WTE businesses, we estimate the IPO will boost the latter's sum-of-the-parts value by 8% or HK$2.14 per share.</li>
</ul>


Following listing of China Conch Environment (587 HK), China Conch Venture (586 HK) is seeking a spin-off of CV Green Energy in A-share market and we view this move positively.
Limited details are currently available, but we think CV Green Energy, which operates WTE businesses, will trade at significantly higher multiples than its Hong Kong peers. 
Assuming CV Green Energy to hold all Conch Venture's WTE businesses, we estimate the IPO will boost the latter's sum-of-the-parts value by 8% or HK$2.14 per share.


Conch Venture (586 HK): Another Spin-Off in the Pipeline

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-conch-venture-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19943:1" rel="noopener">China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK)</a> is sitting on a steep discount of 59% to its NAV. Its holding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-conch-cement-co-ltd-094855ab-abec-4b71-956b-5bfc85e22fdd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:389:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Conch Cement (600585 CH)</a> is already valued at HK$13.3/share.</li>
<li>Its waste-to-energy business has a value of Rmb4.4bn by assuming 5x PER, but this business has a net book value of Rmb10bn. Pipeline capacity equals 21.7% of operational capacity.</li>
<li>The new energy segment, including lithium battery recycling and the manufacture of positive and negative electrode materials, has solid prospects but is overlooked by the market.</li>
</ul>



China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK) is sitting on a steep discount of 59% to its NAV. Its holding in Anhui Conch Cement (600585 CH) is already valued at HK$13.3/share.
Its waste-to-energy business has a value of Rmb4.4bn by assuming 5x PER, but this business has a net book value of Rmb10bn. Pipeline capacity equals 21.7% of operational capacity.
The new energy segment, including lithium battery recycling and the manufacture of positive and negative electrode materials, has solid prospects but is overlooked by the market.


Conch Venture (586 HK): Interesting Angles, yet Undervalued

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

AAC Technologies Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> upcoming inclusion in the Southbound Stock Connect  (SSC) platform could provide a tailwind to its share price and the Hong Kong market.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tuhu-car-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36012:1" rel="noopener">Tuhu Car (9690 HK)</a> reported good 1H 2024 results with an increase of 23% in new store openings.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aac-technologies-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6544:1" rel="noopener">AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK)</a> target price was increased after 1H2024 earnings.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK)</a> ratings were cut after reporting lower 1H24 earnings.  The company omitted its interim dividend.
</li>
</ul>



Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) upcoming inclusion in the Southbound Stock Connect  (SSC) platform could provide a tailwind to its share price and the Hong Kong market.


Tuhu Car (9690 HK) reported good 1H 2024 results with an increase of 23% in new store openings.  AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK) target price was increased after 1H2024 earnings.


Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK) ratings were cut after reporting lower 1H24 earnings.  The company omitted its interim dividend.



BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (August 28)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Canvest Environmental Protection Group / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK)</a> disclosed a pre-conditional Cayman scheme privatisation from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grandblue-environment-co-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17887:1" rel="noopener">Grandblue Environment Co A (600323 CH)</a> at HK$4.90 per share, an 11.6% premium to the last close price.</li>
<li>The precondition relates to the completion of capital injection into the offeror, Grandblue shareholder, and regulatory approvals. The heavy presence of SOE entities makes this a formality.</li>
<li>While not a knockout bid, the offer (which is final) is reasonable. Shareholders with blocking stakes will be supportive. Timing is the key risk as the offer is long-dated.</li>
</ul>



Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK) disclosed a pre-conditional Cayman scheme privatisation from Grandblue Environment Co A (600323 CH) at HK$4.90 per share, an 11.6% premium to the last close price.
The precondition relates to the completion of capital injection into the offeror, Grandblue shareholder, and regulatory approvals. The heavy presence of SOE entities makes this a formality.
While not a knockout bid, the offer (which is final) is reasonable. Shareholders with blocking stakes will be supportive. Timing is the key risk as the offer is long-dated.


Canvest Environmental (1381 HK): Grandblue’s Pre-Condition Privatisation at HK$4.90

Hong Kong

China Everbright International Limited provides environmental protection project management and consultancy services. The Company's operations are broken up into environmental energy, environmental water, environmental construction and environmental technology.

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China Everbright Environment (257 HK)

China Stimulus: These Are the Key Beneficiaries

Potential massive special purpose bond issuance by local governments in 2H22 (brought forward from 2023) will provide a much-needed boost to the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Conch Venture (586 HK): Another Spin-Off in the Pipeline

The proposed spin-off of CV Green Energy in Shanghai should benefit Conch Venture's valuations given the higher multiples for waste-to-energy...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Conch Venture (586 HK): Interesting Angles, yet Undervalued

Conch Venture is undervalued at a 59% NAV discount, with a valuable holding in Anhui Conch Cement and promising new energy segments. It also...

Osbert Tang, CFA

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (August 28)

Alibaba inclusion in the SB connect platform could be a positive market catalyst. Tuhu reported a large increase in new stores in 1H2024. AAC saw...

David Mudd

Canvest Environmental (1381 HK): Grandblue’s Pre-Condition Privatisation at HK$4.90

While not a knockout bid, the offer (which is final) is reasonable. Shareholders with blocking stakes will be supportive. Timing is the key risk as...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Stimulus: These Are the Key Beneficiaries

Potential massive special purpose bond issuance by local governments in 2H22 (brought forward from 2023) will provide a much-needed boost to the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Conch Venture (586 HK): Another Spin-Off in the Pipeline

The proposed spin-off of CV Green Energy in Shanghai should benefit Conch Venture's valuations given the higher multiples for waste-to-energy...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Conch Venture (586 HK): Interesting Angles, yet Undervalued

​Conch Venture is undervalued at a 59% NAV discount, with a valuable holding in Anhui Conch Cement and promising new energy segments. It also...

Osbert Tang, CFA

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (August 28)

Alibaba inclusion in the SB connect platform could be a positive market catalyst. Tuhu reported a large increase in new stores in 1H2024. AAC saw...

David Mudd

Canvest Environmental (1381 HK): Grandblue’s Pre-Condition Privatisation at HK$4.90

While not a knockout bid, the offer (which is final) is reasonable. Shareholders with blocking stakes will be supportive. Timing is the key risk as...

Arun George

Conch Venture is undervalued at a 59% NAV discount, with a valuable holding in Anhui Conch Cement and promising new energy segments. It also...