Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

China Huarong Asset Management / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We see seven new listings as potential inclusions to the HSCI in June. One is already a part of Connect while five will be added to Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
<li>We see 19 potential changes to the HSCI in September. Seven of the deletions are on market cap, four on liquidity, and eight due to prolonged trading suspension.</li>
<li>Some of the potential deletions have large Southbound holdings and some of these could be trimmed over the next couple of months.</li>
</ul>


We see seven new listings as potential inclusions to the HSCI in June. One is already a part of Connect while five will be added to Southbound Stock Connect.
We see 19 potential changes to the HSCI in September. Seven of the deletions are on market cap, four on liquidity, and eight due to prolonged trading suspension.
Some of the potential deletions have large Southbound holdings and some of these could be trimmed over the next couple of months.


HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in June and September

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China Energy Engineering / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We believe strong orders and backlog, increase in installed capacity and development of new business initiatives are the key drivers for brighter outlook of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-energy-engineering-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21017:1" rel="noopener">China Energy Engineering (3996 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Its new orders grew 51% YoY in FY21, with its backlog is enough to cover the revenue more than the next three years mean solid earnings security and visibility.</li>
<li>Development of hydrogen energy and pumped storage businesses may take longer to contribute, but they also represent significant upside when enter into commercial launch. </li>
</ul>


We believe strong orders and backlog, increase in installed capacity and development of new business initiatives are the key drivers for brighter outlook of China Energy Engineering (3996 HK). 
Its new orders grew 51% YoY in FY21, with its backlog is enough to cover the revenue more than the next three years mean solid earnings security and visibility.
Development of hydrogen energy and pumped storage businesses may take longer to contribute, but they also represent significant upside when enter into commercial launch. 


Energy China (3996 HK): Multiple Drivers for Bright Prospects

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-enric-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:47:1" rel="noopener">Cimc Enric Holdings (3899 HK)</a> posted a set of encouraging result for FY21. It achieved a 37.4% YoY growth in 2H21 even after a 77.5% growth in 1H21. </li>
<li>Management suggests that gross margin will improve in this year as measures have been taken to cope with the factors that lead to the 2.3pp contraction in FY21.</li>
<li>Hydrogen energy is a bright spot - though contribution is still small, it expects to at least double its revenue in FY22, and remains bullish on the long term prospects.</li>
</ul>



Cimc Enric Holdings (3899 HK) posted a set of encouraging result for FY21. It achieved a 37.4% YoY growth in 2H21 even after a 77.5% growth in 1H21. 
Management suggests that gross margin will improve in this year as measures have been taken to cope with the factors that lead to the 2.3pp contraction in FY21.
Hydrogen energy is a bright spot - though contribution is still small, it expects to at least double its revenue in FY22, and remains bullish on the long term prospects.


CIMC Enric (3899 HK): Still Running on the Fast Lane

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-press-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9952:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP)</a>'s comments and answers about the SPH REIT Chain Offer may be misleading. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu (2319 HK)</a> is in discussions regarding its holdings in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili (1230 HK)</a> which may result in a number of "Potential Transactions", and may include a pre-conditional privatisation offer.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wh-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13200:1" rel="noopener">WH Group (288 HK)</a> is two businesses - a US pork processor and a Chinese one - and both businesses are suffering lower margins than they'd like.</li>
</ul>



Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP)'s comments and answers about the SPH REIT Chain Offer may be misleading. 

China Mengniu (2319 HK) is in discussions regarding its holdings in Yashili (1230 HK) which may result in a number of "Potential Transactions", and may include a pre-conditional privatisation offer.

WH Group (288 HK) is two businesses - a US pork processor and a Chinese one - and both businesses are suffering lower margins than they'd like.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Singapore Press, Yashili, WH Group, Uniti Group, Toshiba, China Conch

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Russia-Ukraine war has raised commodity prices which are negative towards commodity users in short term. However, we see silver linings for Chinese utilities and energy companies in the longer term.</li>
<li>The conflict is expected to accelerate the progress of renewable projects currently under development, lead to a faster diversification away from fossils and increase gas supply from Russia to China. </li>
<li>Key beneficiaries include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-goldwind-science-technology-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10112:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Goldwind (2208 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfang-electric-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1251:1" rel="noopener">Dongfang Electric (1072 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-longyuan-power-group-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14215:1" rel="noopener">China Longyuan Power (916 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-energy-engineering-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21017:1" rel="noopener">Energy China (3996 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/power-construction-corporation-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24220:1" rel="noopener">Power China (601669 CH)</a> and the gas utilities.</li>
</ul>


Russia-Ukraine war has raised commodity prices which are negative towards commodity users in short term. However, we see silver linings for Chinese utilities and energy companies in the longer term.
The conflict is expected to accelerate the progress of renewable projects currently under development, lead to a faster diversification away from fossils and increase gas supply from Russia to China. 
Key beneficiaries include Xinjiang Goldwind (2208 HK), Dongfang Electric (1072 HK), China Longyuan Power (916 HK), Energy China (3996 HK), Power China (601669 CH) and the gas utilities.


Russia-Ukraine War: Longer Term Implications for China Utilities and Energy

Hong Kong

China Energy Engineering Group Co. Ltd. (CEEC) provides infrastructure construction and investment for hydroelectrical works. The Company also offers power engineering, electric power equipment, technology, and human resources. CEEC provides its services in China and internationally.

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China Energy Engineering (3996 HK)

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in June and September

We forecast 7 adds to the HSCI in June. For the September rebalance, we forecast 19 adds & 19 deletes (7 on mkt cap, 4 on liquidity, 8 on long...

Brian Freitas

Energy China (3996 HK): Multiple Drivers for Bright Prospects

Strong orders and backlog, increase in installed capacity and new business initiatives are key drivers for brighter outlook of Energy China. Its...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CIMC Enric (3899 HK): Still Running on the Fast Lane

Management expects gross margin to recover in FY22 and it should ride on positive natural gas, chemical & environmental and liquid food demand....

Osbert Tang, CFA

Last Week in Event SPACE: Singapore Press, Yashili, WH Group, Uniti Group, Toshiba, China Conch

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Russia-Ukraine War: Longer Term Implications for China Utilities and Energy

We should not overlook the potential long term impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the Chinese utilities and energy companies as we find some...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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