Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>On Monday evening in the US, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> reported Q422 results that beat low expectations, but shares in the US traded down about 3% in Tuesday's session</li>
<li>As for guidance, management offered few specifics but noted a sharp improvement in booking activity early in 2023, but also highlighted an outbound capacity bottleneck at the airlines</li>
<li>Just as Covid's negative impacts papered over the secular challenges facing Trip.com, the dramatic near-term recovery in travel activity also obscures longstanding threats</li>
</ul>


On Monday evening in the US, Trip.com (TCOM US) reported Q422 results that beat low expectations, but shares in the US traded down about 3% in Tuesday's session
As for guidance, management offered few specifics but noted a sharp improvement in booking activity early in 2023, but also highlighted an outbound capacity bottleneck at the airlines
Just as Covid's negative impacts papered over the secular challenges facing Trip.com, the dramatic near-term recovery in travel activity also obscures longstanding threats


Trip.com Q4/2022 Results: Back to Reality?

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>September's growth in activity still solid for domestic &amp; international traffic</li>
<li>Golden Week anecdotes suggests Chinese tourists remain active, but frugal</li>
<li>Trip.com has shown stellar YTD performance, but airlines offer more upside</li>
</ul>


September's growth in activity still solid for domestic &amp; international traffic
Golden Week anecdotes suggests Chinese tourists remain active, but frugal
Trip.com has shown stellar YTD performance, but airlines offer more upside


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Still-Solid Growth in September | Consider Airlines (October 2024)

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern Airlines (1055 HK) </a>will suffer from a higher USD rate as Trump's massive deportation plan raises inflation.  High-cash companies will better position, however.</li>
<li>The surge in tariffs on US imports of goods from China will further accelerate supply chain diversification, boosting intra-Asia trade and driving <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC International (1308 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC (883 HK)</a> may gain from a slowdown in the green transition in the US as oil prices are supported. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meitu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23573:1" rel="noopener">Meitu Inc (1357 HK)</a>, given its crypto investments, will benefit. </li>
</ul>



China Southern Airlines (1055 HK) will suffer from a higher USD rate as Trump's massive deportation plan raises inflation.  High-cash companies will better position, however.
The surge in tariffs on US imports of goods from China will further accelerate supply chain diversification, boosting intra-Asia trade and driving SITC International (1308 HK). 

CNOOC (883 HK) may gain from a slowdown in the green transition in the US as oil prices are supported. Meitu Inc (1357 HK), given its crypto investments, will benefit. 


China & HK Strategy: Some Stocks for Trump Trade

<ul>
<li>By many metrics, Chinese airlines' recent performance exceeds pre-Covid levels</li>
<li>Medium-Term, ongoing int'l recovery and benign fuel prices can boost margins</li>
<li>We believe the airlines could recoup weak relative performance vs Trip.com</li>
</ul>


By many metrics, Chinese airlines' recent performance exceeds pre-Covid levels
Medium-Term, ongoing int'l recovery and benign fuel prices can boost margins
We believe the airlines could recoup weak relative performance vs Trip.com


Rebound in Int'l Demand & Benign Fuel Prices Could Support Recovery in Chinese Airlines' Share Perf

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 148 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 108.9% as of Sep 27th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -1.5ppt week-on-week, led by real estate, consumer discretionary, information technology and offset by consumer staples, communication services, energy.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Eastern, China Southern Airlines, Tsingtao, HPI, RemeGen.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 148 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 108.9% as of Sep 27th.
The average A-H premium changed by -1.5ppt week-on-week, led by real estate, consumer discretionary, information technology and offset by consumer staples, communication services, energy.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Eastern, China Southern Airlines, Tsingtao, HPI, RemeGen.


A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 27th):China Eastern, China Southern Airlines, Tsingtao, HPI, RemeGen

China

China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates in the civil aviation industry. It offers passenger, cargo, mail delivery, ground, cargo handling, and other extended transportation services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Eastern Airlines (670 HK)

Trip.com Q4/2022 Results: Back to Reality?

As China emerges from Covid, old challenges remain for Trip.com. After posting solid Q422 results and pointing to signs of a strong recovery, these...

Daniel Hellberg

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Still-Solid Growth in September | Consider Airlines (October 2024)

Chinese domestic and outbound air travel continued to show solid growth in September and Q3. The airlines have managed capacity restoration well...

Tracking Traffic

China & HK Strategy: Some Stocks for Trump Trade

A higher USD rate due to Trump's deportation plan will impact CSA. Tariff surge on US imports from China will boost SITC. CNOOC may benefit from...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 27th):China Eastern, China Southern Airlines, Tsingtao, HPI, RemeGen

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China Eastern, China Southern Airlines, Tsingtao, HPI, RemeGen.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Trip.com Q4/2022 Results: Back to Reality?

As China emerges from Covid, old challenges remain for Trip.com. After posting solid Q422 results and pointing to signs of a strong recovery, these...

Daniel Hellberg

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Still-Solid Growth in September | Consider Airlines (October 2024)

Chinese domestic and outbound air travel continued to show solid growth in September and Q3. The airlines have managed capacity restoration well...

Tracking Traffic

China & HK Strategy: Some Stocks for Trump Trade

​A higher USD rate due to Trump's deportation plan will impact CSA. Tariff surge on US imports from China will boost SITC. CNOOC may benefit from...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Rebound in Int'l Demand & Benign Fuel Prices Could Support Recovery in Chinese Airlines' Share Perf

We believe improvement in Chinese outbound demand combined with benign fuel prices could lift shares of China's large state-owned airlines,...

Tracking Traffic

A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 27th):China Eastern, China Southern Airlines, Tsingtao, HPI, RemeGen

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China Eastern, China Southern Airlines, Tsingtao, HPI, RemeGen.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A higher USD rate due to Trump's deportation plan will impact CSA. Tariff surge on US imports from China will boost SITC. CNOOC may benefit from...