HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (753 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-eastern-airlines-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1079:1" rel="noopener">China Eastern Airlines (670 HK) </a>issued profit warnings for FY21, guiding for Rmb36.8-43.3bn aggregate losses, worse than FY20. </li>
<li>On QoQ basis, CSA's bottom line is significantly weaker as losses enlarged 3.1x in 4Q21, versus 38.4% for CEA and 54% for Air China, based on the mid-point of guidances.</li>
<li>We expect Air China to outperform CSA (YTD: 1.6pp), backed by more international traffic, border opening of China, favourable cargo demand and pricing, and improvement at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific (293 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>



Air China Ltd (753 HK), China Southern Airlines (1055 HK) and China Eastern Airlines (670 HK) issued profit warnings for FY21, guiding for Rmb36.8-43.3bn aggregate losses, worse than FY20. 
On QoQ basis, CSA's bottom line is significantly weaker as losses enlarged 3.1x in 4Q21, versus 38.4% for CEA and 54% for Air China, based on the mid-point of guidances.
We expect Air China to outperform CSA (YTD: 1.6pp), backed by more international traffic, border opening of China, favourable cargo demand and pricing, and improvement at Cathay Pacific (293 HK). 


Chinese Airlines: A Tale of Three Loss-Making, but Outperforming, Companies

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 135 stocks over the last week.</li>
<li>We highlight three sectors that contributed to the A/H premium decline: consumer staple, consumer discretionary, and information technology.</li>
<li>We highlight A/H premium increase of China Communication Construction (1800 HK), and China Eastern Air (670 HK). </li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 135 stocks over the last week.
We highlight three sectors that contributed to the A/H premium decline: consumer staple, consumer discretionary, and information technology.
We highlight A/H premium increase of China Communication Construction (1800 HK), and China Eastern Air (670 HK). 


A/H Premium Weekly: China Comm Construction, China Eastern Air

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 135 stocks over the last week. </li>
<li>Top three sectors in terms of A/H premium increase were consumer stable, utilities and industrials.</li>
<li>Six industrial names appeared in the top 10 stocks with week-on-week A/H increases. </li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 135 stocks over the last week. 
Top three sectors in terms of A/H premium increase were consumer stable, utilities and industrials.
Six industrial names appeared in the top 10 stocks with week-on-week A/H increases. 


A/H Premium Weekly: Industrials Led Premium Increase

Equity Bottom-Up

Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA) / Equity Bottom-Up

Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA)

<ul>
<li>We think there should not be much positive effect on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-capital-international-airport-bcia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10626:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA) (694 HK)</a> from Winter Olympics and Paralympics. We expect near-term downside pressure on share price.</li>
<li>Higher operating costs, revenue waivers and tighter traffic control are likely to impair the profitability in next year, as evidenced by the precedent case in the 2008 Beijing Olympics. </li>
<li>While share price has been weak YTD, BCIA is likely to sustain losses into FY22, meaning further book value erosion. That said, even at 0.83x P/B, there is minimal upside.</li>
</ul>


We think there should not be much positive effect on Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA) (694 HK) from Winter Olympics and Paralympics. We expect near-term downside pressure on share price.
Higher operating costs, revenue waivers and tighter traffic control are likely to impair the profitability in next year, as evidenced by the precedent case in the 2008 Beijing Olympics. 
While share price has been weak YTD, BCIA is likely to sustain losses into FY22, meaning further book value erosion. That said, even at 0.83x P/B, there is minimal upside.


Beijing Capital Intl Airport (694 HK): Don't Bet on the Winter Olympics

Shanghai International Airport / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We consider the acquisitions of Hongqiao and related assets at a price tag of Rmb19.1bn as both financially fair for and strategically beneficial to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-international-airport-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6511:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH)</a>.</li>
<li>The 12.13pp increase in stake by the parent company is a vote of support and confidence, and the acquisitions trimmed its 1H21 loss by 29.8% and lowered LPS by 42.1%.</li>
<li>Profit guarantee for Logistics Company and Advertising Segment by the parent for FY22-24 is very welcomed and translated into undemanding acquisition PERs of 12.8x and 10.2x for FY24F.</li>
</ul>


We consider the acquisitions of Hongqiao and related assets at a price tag of Rmb19.1bn as both financially fair for and strategically beneficial to Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH).
The 12.13pp increase in stake by the parent company is a vote of support and confidence, and the acquisitions trimmed its 1H21 loss by 29.8% and lowered LPS by 42.1%.
Profit guarantee for Logistics Company and Advertising Segment by the parent for FY22-24 is very welcomed and translated into undemanding acquisition PERs of 12.8x and 10.2x for FY24F.


Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH): Hongqiao Acquisitions Are Fair Deals

China

China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates in the civil aviation industry. It offers passenger, cargo, mail delivery, ground, cargo handling, and other extended transportation services.

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China Eastern Airlines (670 HK)

Chinese Airlines: A Tale of Three Loss-Making, but Outperforming, Companies

Chinese airlines have issued profit warnings for FY21 with record losses in the year, and CSA looks to have the weakest QoQ performance in 4Q21. We...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A/H Premium Weekly: China Comm Construction, China Eastern Air

We highlight three sectors that contributed to the WOW A/H premium decline: consumer staple, consumer discretionary, and information technology,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A/H Premium Weekly: Industrials Led Premium Increase

Top three sectors in terms of A/H premium increase were consumer stable, utilities and industrials. Six industrial names appeared in the top 10 A/H...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Beijing Capital Intl Airport (694 HK): Don't Bet on the Winter Olympics

We expect BCIA's traffic and cost to be negatively, rather than positively, affected by the Winter Olympics and Paralympics to be held in Feb and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH): Hongqiao Acquisitions Are Fair Deals

The acquisitions of Hongqiao and related assets will enhance bottom line in next two years. The parent's profit guarantees and increase in stake...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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