China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

The last two quarters failed to produce sustained positive growth in the regulated highly leveraged Chinese economy with continued RMB depreciation. Still some sectors such as real estate and the manufacturing showed some promising positive results, implying that the Chinese economy will not face a hard landing.  The ongoing rapid expansion of credit driving activity though remains worrying especially given the stressed finances of Chinese industrials. Since last year PBOC started to diminish…

The last two quarters failed to produce sustained positive growth in the regulated highly leveraged Chinese economy with continued RMB depreciation. Still some sectors such as real estate and the manufacturing showed some promising positive results, implying that the Chinese economy will not face a hard landing.  The ongoing rapid expansion of credit driving activity though remains worrying especially given the stressed finances of Chinese industrials. Since last year PBOC started to diminish…

Chinese Industrial Revenue Up 1% YTD from 2015

July Pre PMI ReportAfter a hot start this year the Chinese economy has plateaued and appeared to enter a slow downward trend with no sign of returning to strong growth. The start of the third quarter can be termed as disappointing as the key industries have also stated to show the effects of broader slowdown.  Key industries linked to real estate that showed a bullish trend in previous months seem to be reverting to uncertainty or non-existent growth. The steel industry of China, which also…

July Pre PMI ReportAfter a hot start this year the Chinese economy has plateaued and appeared to enter a slow downward trend with no sign of returning to strong growth. The start of the third quarter can be termed as disappointing as the key industries have also stated to show the effects of broader slowdown.  Key industries linked to real estate that showed a bullish trend in previous months seem to be reverting to uncertainty or non-existent growth. The steel industry of China, which also…

Early Chinese July Data Shows Economic Activity Slowdown

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Due to its enormous importance to the Chinese economy and the drivers of the 2008 global financial crisis, many analysts focus on the real estate sector as a potential harbinger of the overall economy.  Like many other sectors of the Chinese economy real estate is heavily government regulated by the state acting as a major source of revenue for local governments which thrive from land sales to builders. Real estate supports local government finances and large number of upstream industries like…

Due to its enormous importance to the Chinese economy and the drivers of the 2008 global financial crisis, many analysts focus on the real estate sector as a potential harbinger of the overall economy.  Like many other sectors of the Chinese economy real estate is heavily government regulated by the state acting as a major source of revenue for local governments which thrive from land sales to builders. Real estate supports local government finances and large number of upstream industries like…

Chinese Real Estate Pricing in 21% Price Increase

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

In May 2016 (latest complete data), on YTD y/y basis, residential (incl. mixed-use) land GFA acquired by 20 major developers we track based on underlying data from SouFun-CREIS, increased by 40%, compared to 16.9% in April. Overall land sales of residential (incl. mixed use) land GFA in 40 major cities (Tier-1 and Tier-2) increased by 6% in May YTD y/y, compared to 6.8% in April, a more muted growth compared to the activity by major developers. Acquisitions of pure commercial land grew by 136%…

In May 2016 (latest complete data), on YTD y/y basis, residential (incl. mixed-use) land GFA acquired by 20 major developers we track based on underlying data from SouFun-CREIS, increased by 40%, compared to 16.9% in April. Overall land sales of residential (incl. mixed use) land GFA in 40 major cities (Tier-1 and Tier-2) increased by 6% in May YTD y/y, compared to 6.8% in April, a more muted growth compared to the activity by major developers. Acquisitions of pure commercial land grew by 136%…

China: Slower Land Sales Growth In 40 Major Cities But Acquisitions By Major Developers Rise 40%

Outlook on China’s PMI  The month of June furthered the case that the Chinese economy has plateaued and potentially started declining again. With last month’s PMI at 50.1, there was reason to believe we would see real economy expansion but this failed to materialize. Throughout June, most industries showed a downward trend in production output generating a PMI of 50.0, .1 lower than the last month. The slowdown in output and manager expectation does not provide a positive outlook on a leverage…

Outlook on China’s PMI  The month of June furthered the case that the Chinese economy has plateaued and potentially started declining again. With last month’s PMI at 50.1, there was reason to believe we would see real economy expansion but this failed to materialize. Throughout June, most industries showed a downward trend in production output generating a PMI of 50.0, .1 lower than the last month. The slowdown in output and manager expectation does not provide a positive outlook on a leverage…

China

China CSSC Holdings Ltd. offers shipbuilding, ship components, ship repairing and diesel engines manufacturing. The Company distributes its products within the domestic market and to overseas markets.

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China CSSC Holdings Ltd A (600150 CH)

Chinese Industrial Revenue Up 1% YTD from 2015

The last two quarters failed to produce sustained positive growth in the regulated highly leveraged Chinese economy with continued RMB...

Christopher Balding

Early Chinese July Data Shows Economic Activity Slowdown

July Pre PMI ReportAfter a hot start this year the Chinese economy has plateaued and appeared to enter a slow downward trend with no sign of...

Christopher Balding

Chinese Real Estate Pricing in 21% Price Increase

Due to its enormous importance to the Chinese economy and the drivers of the 2008 global financial crisis, many analysts focus on the real estate...

Christopher Balding

China: Slower Land Sales Growth In 40 Major Cities But Acquisitions By Major Developers Rise 40%

In May 2016 (latest complete data), on YTD y/y basis, residential (incl. mixed-use) land GFA acquired by 20 major developers we track based on...

Robert Ciemniak

China Economic Recap for June

Outlook on China’s PMI The month of June furthered the case that the Chinese economy has plateaued and potentially started declining again. With...

Christopher Balding

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