Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSCEI index rebal event in June 2024.</li>
<li>Based on the current data, I see two low-conviction ADDs and two low-conviction DELs.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSCEI index rebal event in June 2024.
Based on the current data, I see two low-conviction ADDs and two low-conviction DELs.


Quiddity HSCEI Jun 24 Flow Expectations: Many Reasons to Follow the Developments Closely

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows for Bank of China, Tencent, China Mobile, CNOOC, ZTO, Anta.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight inflows for Bank of China, Tencent, China Mobile, CNOOC, ZTO, Anta.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar): 12 Month High of $9.8bn Inflows

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 15th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Bank Of China, Tencent, CNOOC, Zto Express, Kuaishou Technology, Anta Sports Products.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 15th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Bank Of China, Tencent, CNOOC, Zto Express, Kuaishou Technology, Anta Sports Products.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar 15th): BOC, Tencent, CNOOC, Zto Express, Kuaishou, Anta Sports

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND a net buyer <em>every day</em> since the end of Chinese New Year. NORTHBOUND a huge net buyer this week, now net buyers in size (RMB +93bn) over 7 weeks.</li>
<li>For the first time in a while, AH premia among liquid stocks fell convincingly. Narrow AH premia pairs saw Hs outperform more than wide AH premia Hs (vs As).</li>
</ul>


The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND a net buyer every day since the end of Chinese New Year. NORTHBOUND a huge net buyer this week, now net buyers in size (RMB +93bn) over 7 weeks.
For the first time in a while, AH premia among liquid stocks fell convincingly. Narrow AH premia pairs saw Hs outperform more than wide AH premia Hs (vs As).


A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Mar 2024):  Liquid AH Premia Starting to Narrow

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Bank Of Ningbo Co Ltd A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Bank of Ningbo saw its margins decline dramatically from 1.79% to 1.55% from 3Q22 to 3Q23. This is of concern for earnings power in coming quarters. </li>
<li>The bank's loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) is now down to 73% from 78% YoY which tends to act as a dampener on NIM and core income. </li>
<li>Credit metrics are worsening with NPLs up from RMB7.9bn to RMB9.3bn YoY in 3Q23. This rise is not easily visible in the NPL ratio due to rising total loans. </li>
</ul>


Bank of Ningbo saw its margins decline dramatically from 1.79% to 1.55% from 3Q22 to 3Q23. This is of concern for earnings power in coming quarters. 
The bank's loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) is now down to 73% from 78% YoY which tends to act as a dampener on NIM and core income. 
Credit metrics are worsening with NPLs up from RMB7.9bn to RMB9.3bn YoY in 3Q23. This rise is not easily visible in the NPL ratio due to rising total loans. 


Bank of Ningbo - 24bps NIM Decline, Lower LDR, 18% Higher NPLs

China

China Construction Bank Corporation provides a comprehensive range of commercial banking products and services to individuals and corporate customers. The Bank's business consists of three principal business segments: corporate banking, personal banking, and treasury operations. China Construction Bank also services infrastructure loans, residential mortgage, and bank cards.

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China Construction Bank H (939 HK)

Quiddity HSCEI Jun 24 Flow Expectations: Many Reasons to Follow the Developments Closely

The reference period for HSCEI June 2024 review ended on 31st March 2024 and my expectations for index changes remain unchanged since I published...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar): 12 Month High of $9.8bn Inflows

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for March and highlight flows for Bank of China, Tencent, China Mobile, CNOOC, ZTO, Anta.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar 15th): BOC, Tencent, CNOOC, Zto Express, Kuaishou, Anta Sports

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Bank Of China, Tencent, CNOOC, Zto Express, Kuaishou, Anta...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Mar 2024): Liquid AH Premia Starting to Narrow

AH Premia narrowed more on liquid narrow premia than on less liquid and wide premia. This is a new development. Energy and Utilities saw Hs rebound...

Travis Lundy

Bank of Ningbo - 24bps NIM Decline, Lower LDR, 18% Higher NPLs

Bank of Ningbo shows sharply lower NIM YoY with a declining LDR ratio, that can both means worsening core earnings power. High real estate loan...

Daniel Tabbush

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