Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies, BBSP Asia

Federico D'Inca

Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies

BBSP Asia

Technical Analysis

China Construction Bank H / Technical Analysis

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/026/814/original/China%20Cons%20Bank%20939%20HK.JPG?1496014915" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="26814"></figure>PREFERRED CASE Bullish above 6.00, surpassing 6.50 confirms rise to 7.25.Holding above bullish trendline RSI support reaction expected on ascending line Bullish Elliott Wave structure.Access to this document is restricted to the use of the intended recipient designated by BBSP and may not be shared with others. Any unauthorised use, dissemination, distribution or copying of this document, in whole orin part, is strictly prohibited. This document is provided solely for information purposes. Under no…

PREFERRED CASE Bullish above 6.00, surpassing 6.50 confirms rise to 7.25.Holding above bullish trendline RSI support reaction expected on ascending line Bullish Elliott Wave structure.Access to this document is restricted to the use of the intended recipient designated by BBSP and may not be shared with others. Any unauthorised use, dissemination, distribution or copying of this document, in whole orin part, is strictly prohibited. This document is provided solely for information purposes. Under no…

939 HK China Construction Bank - Target 7.25

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
Up-to-date investment decision advice (buy, hold, sell)
Monthly regional and global conference calls
Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>For the past 7 years Riedel Research has been issuing company-specific Corporate Governance scores on companies in the Emerging Markets.  This service is now being widely used by risk managers, fundamental investors and quant funds.</li>
<li>Our proprietary Corporate Governance (CG) scoring system now covers 1,629 stocks.</li>
<li>RRG CG scores have a proven ability to highlight the risk of frauds and misstatements by EM companies and a track record of adding alpha.  Over the past 5 years a basket of companies with…</li>
</ul>


For the past 7 years Riedel Research has been issuing company-specific Corporate Governance scores on companies in the Emerging Markets.  This service is now being widely used by risk managers, fundamental investors and quant funds.
Our proprietary Corporate Governance (CG) scoring system now covers 1,629 stocks.
RRG CG scores have a proven ability to highlight the risk of frauds and misstatements by EM companies and a track record of adding alpha.  Over the past 5 years a basket of companies with…


RRG Corporate Governance Scoring System Adds Coverage of 60 HKG Names - Who Are the Likely Frauds?

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

The China bank numbers show us once again that quarterly figures during the year are hardly reliable. This is because it is in the final quarter when banks top up their impairment costs, showing that previous periods are highly inflated.  At the same time, where stated NPL figures are increasingly held in question, for some banks, special mention loans are soaring. This is yet another way to limit impairment costs and inflate profit.Profit growth of selected China banks (% ch QoQ)<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td> </td>
<td style="text-align: right;">2Q16</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">3Q16</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">4Q16</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>…</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>

The China bank numbers show us once again that quarterly figures during the year are hardly reliable. This is because it is in the final quarter when banks top up their impairment costs, showing that previous periods are highly inflated.  At the same time, where stated NPL figures are increasingly held in question, for some banks, special mention loans are soaring. This is yet another way to limit impairment costs and inflate profit.Profit growth of selected China banks (% ch QoQ)

 
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16


…



Sequential Profit Is Telling for China Banks

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Major Chinese banks have released their 2016 annual results and you could be forgiven for believing that the Chinese economy was on firmer footing and banks had addressed their non-performing loan (NPL) problem.  With two of the major banks reporting small declines in NPLs and all banks reporting small increases in net profit, many were nearly exuberant at the state of Chinese banks.  However, you would be well advised to remain very cautious on the state of Chinese banks.

Major Chinese banks have released their 2016 annual results and you could be forgiven for believing that the Chinese economy was on firmer footing and banks had addressed their non-performing loan (NPL) problem.  With two of the major banks reporting small declines in NPLs and all banks reporting small increases in net profit, many were nearly exuberant at the state of Chinese banks.  However, you would be well advised to remain very cautious on the state of Chinese banks.

China Banks: Headline Positive, Fundamental Deterioration

Head of Research at Fusion Wealth Management Ltd

Michael McGaughy

In my research and investing I stress three things: people, structure, and value.  I look for companies that are controlled and managed by quality people, have corporate structures that align minority and majority shareholder interests and trade at valuations that are below fair value if not outright cheap. This note is actually not about any of that and instead just a quick one about bitcoin and how my initial skepticism may have been wrong.  I usually don’t write “macro” or ‘thought pieces’…

In my research and investing I stress three things: people, structure, and value.  I look for companies that are controlled and managed by quality people, have corporate structures that align minority and majority shareholder interests and trade at valuations that are below fair value if not outright cheap. This note is actually not about any of that and instead just a quick one about bitcoin and how my initial skepticism may have been wrong.  I usually don’t write “macro” or ‘thought pieces’…

China

China Construction Bank Corporation provides a comprehensive range of commercial banking products and services to individuals and corporate customers. The Bank's business consists of three principal business segments: corporate banking, personal banking, and treasury operations. China Construction Bank also services infrastructure loans, residential mortgage, and bank cards.

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China Construction Bank H (939 HK)

939 HK China Construction Bank - Target 7.25

PREFERRED CASEBullish above 6.00, surpassing 6.50 confirms rise to 7.25.Holding above bullish trendlineRSI support reaction expected on ascending...

BBSP Asia

RRG Corporate Governance Scoring System Adds Coverage of 60 HKG Names - Who Are the Likely Frauds?

For the past 7 years Riedel Research has been issuing company-specific Corporate Governance scores on companies in the Emerging Markets. This...

David Riedel

Sequential Profit Is Telling for China Banks

The China bank numbers show us once again that quarterly figures during the year are hardly reliable. This is because it is in the final quarter...

Daniel Tabbush

China Banks: Headline Positive, Fundamental Deterioration

Major Chinese banks have released their 2016 annual results and you could be forgiven for believing that the Chinese economy was on firmer footing...

Christopher Balding

Bitcoin - The View From Lagos

In my research and investing I stress three things: people, structure, and value. I look for companies that are controlled and managed by quality...

Michael McGaughy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)