Financials Credit Analyst

Hank Calenti, CFA

CreditContinuum

Credit

Executive Summary: A Goldilocks scenario outcome whereby President Trump loses the election, but Joe Biden does not win a mandate led to material US High Yield (HY) index spread tightening, driven by Caa-rated entities.Markets were overpricing a Blue Democratic Party sweep prior to the US election, as we predicted. Now they are overpricing an inhibited tax and regulatory agenda under a Biden Presidency and Republican Senate. The run-off for two Senate seats in Georgia could see Republicans’ lose the Senate. As such, the amount of potential fiscal stimulus under the new administration remains difficult to handicap. Plus, regulatory changes are now largely driven by Executive Orders.In Asia, despite improving Purchasing Managers Index results and an unexpected acceleration in China’s October exports, Asia’s HY market underperformed the US on global economic growth concerns. Increasing Coronavirus cases in Europe and a pre-Christmas lock-down are a headwind for Asia’s export growth and tourism over the near term. Concurrently, Biden’s Coronavirus plan also adds to uncertainty. Furthermore, expectations that Joe Biden may be less confrontational than President Trump with China may prove wrong as the new President would focus on mid-term elections and the need to prove himself where he won narrowly. However, despite these potential negatives, Asia’s HY index looks oversold particularly relative to US Caa-rated index levels.The suspension of Ant Financial’s (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-financial-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Group (6688 HK)</a> )initial public offering (IPO) in China and Hong Kong also negatively affected Asia’s risk sentiment and raised serious questions on China’s regulatory due process. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc-a723bd63-0890-486f-aaa0-3bb9ad2b95ce" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21976:1" rel="noopener">HSBC's (HSBA LN)</a> shares sold-off following the Ant Financial announcement despite the firm not waiving interest charges on margin borrowing for the suspended IPO. With a China-centric growth strategy, HSBC’s business model is increasingly caught in the middle of a developing bi-polar world.Nonetheless, never missing an opportunity to test the market, HSBC Holdings was the only financial institution to issue debt in the global capital markets this week. We assess the attractiveness of these Euro-denominated bonds within. In Asia, primary US$-bond sales plunged to just US$0.9b from US$6.8 billion in the prior week as borrowers awaited the U.S presidential election outcome. With interest rates diving lower, we anticipate additional issuance over the next few weeks as issuers fill 2021 borrowing needs early.Against this background, Asia’s lower duration Senior Unsecured bonds outperformed Tier 2 and Additional Tier 1 securities, in concert with concerns surrounding global economic growth potential over the near term. The top performing and underperforming bonds were short- and long-duration in nature, respectively.  Market Outlook: A less expansionary US fiscal policy should reduce upward pressure on U.S. rates and is likely to support yield-seeking, including Emerging Markets (EM) fixed income securities over time. In the near term, risk asset and bank valuations may remain volatile through the year-end as large levels of cash remain on the sidelines.

Executive Summary: A Goldilocks scenario outcome whereby President Trump loses the election, but Joe Biden does not win a mandate led to material US High Yield (HY) index spread tightening, driven by Caa-rated entities.Markets were overpricing a Blue Democratic Party sweep prior to the US election, as we predicted. Now they are overpricing an inhibited tax and regulatory agenda under a Biden Presidency and Republican Senate. The run-off for two Senate seats in Georgia could see Republicans’ lose the Senate. As such, the amount of potential fiscal stimulus under the new administration remains difficult to handicap. Plus, regulatory changes are now largely driven by Executive Orders.In Asia, despite improving Purchasing Managers Index results and an unexpected acceleration in China’s October exports, Asia’s HY market underperformed the US on global economic growth concerns. Increasing Coronavirus cases in Europe and a pre-Christmas lock-down are a headwind for Asia’s export growth and tourism over the near term. Concurrently, Biden’s Coronavirus plan also adds to uncertainty. Furthermore, expectations that Joe Biden may be less confrontational than President Trump with China may prove wrong as the new President would focus on mid-term elections and the need to prove himself where he won narrowly. However, despite these potential negatives, Asia’s HY index looks oversold particularly relative to US Caa-rated index levels.The suspension of Ant Financial’s (Ant Group (6688 HK) )initial public offering (IPO) in China and Hong Kong also negatively affected Asia’s risk sentiment and raised serious questions on China’s regulatory due process. HSBC's (HSBA LN) shares sold-off following the Ant Financial announcement despite the firm not waiving interest charges on margin borrowing for the suspended IPO. With a China-centric growth strategy, HSBC’s business model is increasingly caught in the middle of a developing bi-polar world.Nonetheless, never missing an opportunity to test the market, HSBC Holdings was the only financial institution to issue debt in the global capital markets this week. We assess the attractiveness of these Euro-denominated bonds within. In Asia, primary US$-bond sales plunged to just US$0.9b from US$6.8 billion in the prior week as borrowers awaited the U.S presidential election outcome. With interest rates diving lower, we anticipate additional issuance over the next few weeks as issuers fill 2021 borrowing needs early.Against this background, Asia’s lower duration Senior Unsecured bonds outperformed Tier 2 and Additional Tier 1 securities, in concert with concerns surrounding global economic growth potential over the near term. The top performing and underperforming bonds were short- and long-duration in nature, respectively.  Market Outlook: A less expansionary US fiscal policy should reduce upward pressure on U.S. rates and is likely to support yield-seeking, including Emerging Markets (EM) fixed income securities over time. In the near term, risk asset and bank valuations may remain volatile through the year-end as large levels of cash remain on the sidelines.

Bank Credit Weekly: Election Goldilocks Priced-In as Growth Concerns Increase

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-financial-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Group (6688 HK)</a> almost raised US$35bn in the largest IPO in history. While the IPO may eventually proceed, we are unsure of the valuations the company could demand the next time around.Following the suspension of listing on the STAR Market by the Shanghai Stock Exchange due to a 'major event', <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-financial-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Group (6688 HK)</a> announced the suspension of the H-share listing too. The company also said that the refund of the application monies will be made as soon as possible to Hong Kong retail investors.This 'major event' will have knock-on implications for a host of other trades/strategies as well. In this Insight, we take a look at some of them.

Ant Group (6688 HK) almost raised US$35bn in the largest IPO in history. While the IPO may eventually proceed, we are unsure of the valuations the company could demand the next time around.Following the suspension of listing on the STAR Market by the Shanghai Stock Exchange due to a 'major event', Ant Group (6688 HK) announced the suspension of the H-share listing too. The company also said that the refund of the application monies will be made as soon as possible to Hong Kong retail investors.This 'major event' will have knock-on implications for a host of other trades/strategies as well. In this Insight, we take a look at some of them.

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Don’t Be Misled By Better Numbers: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398.HK) [ICBC] reported stronger 3Q20 results than 2Q20, coming in at CNY 80.3 bn - increasing CNY 15.6 bn (24.1%) linked quarter. The linked quarter Improvement is largely attributed to three factors: a) net interest income improvement of CNY 4.0 bn (2.6%) on both a 1 bp NIM improvement to 1.92%, and 2.6% loan growth; b) a CNY 11.7 bn (17.7%) decline in loss provisioning despite marked credit weakness; and c) a 700 bp decline in ICBC’s tax rate to 15.2%; and *Credit Risk Rising: As ICBC is the benchmark name to which all mainland Chinese banks are measured, an increase of such magnitude is more than alarming – and intimates mainland Chinese bank credit risk is moving in oppositive directions to their counterparts in India. When one considers the current break in credit quality reserves would appear to be incredibly light – in the neighborhood of CNY 419 bn which amounts to over a year of pre-tax results at ICBC.

*Don’t Be Misled By Better Numbers: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398.HK) [ICBC] reported stronger 3Q20 results than 2Q20, coming in at CNY 80.3 bn - increasing CNY 15.6 bn (24.1%) linked quarter. The linked quarter Improvement is largely attributed to three factors: a) net interest income improvement of CNY 4.0 bn (2.6%) on both a 1 bp NIM improvement to 1.92%, and 2.6% loan growth; b) a CNY 11.7 bn (17.7%) decline in loss provisioning despite marked credit weakness; and c) a 700 bp decline in ICBC’s tax rate to 15.2%; and *Credit Risk Rising: As ICBC is the benchmark name to which all mainland Chinese banks are measured, an increase of such magnitude is more than alarming – and intimates mainland Chinese bank credit risk is moving in oppositive directions to their counterparts in India. When one considers the current break in credit quality reserves would appear to be incredibly light – in the neighborhood of CNY 419 bn which amounts to over a year of pre-tax results at ICBC.      

ICBC – Be Very Wary Of Worsening Credit

Executive Summary: We noted last weekend that Treasury yields could gap down as True-Blue election sweep expectations declined and that bank valuations would follow. Both outcomes took place during the first part of the week. President Trump has gained enough in polls for traders with bearish positions in long-dated Treasuries to start unwinding them.  If Republicans’ retain the Senate, then fiscal stimulus may be lower than currently expected.  The December VIX future may also underprice the risk of a contested election result while thin markets keep volatility elevated.On Wednesday, most US stock indices posted their biggest single-day drop since June while European shares met five-month lows. As such, implied equity volatility jumped to its highest readings in 6 weeks. The US dollar and commodities also exhibited risk-off behaviour. Soaring Coronavirus cases in the US and Europe added to market jitters on the eventual time to a US federal stimulus package. The lack of a strong bullish reaction in Treasuries while equities sold-off reinforced concerns that low yields significantly reduce hedging protection. Within this background, Asia’s Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds underperformed Tier 2 and Senior Unsecured securities, in concert with developed market risk-off sentiment. The top performing bonds were overwhelmingly short maturity Senior Unsecured in nature. Asia’s HY markets slightly outperformed the US’ as both indexes widened during the week. The relative outperformance of Asia versus the US resulted in slight spread compression between the two indexes, although the remain wide of last year’s average and this years’ tights.Financial institutions only issued US$4.5 billion in USD and Euros. Amongst Asia-headquartered banks, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrial-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19515:1" rel="noopener">Industrial Bank Co Ltd A (601166 CH)</a> and Kookmin Bank (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kb-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:718:1" rel="noopener">KB Financial Group (105560 KS))</a> were the only financial institutions to access global capital market during the week. The primary market issuance window may be closing very early this year.In terms of potential mergers and acquisitions, Bloomberg reported that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kotak-mahindra-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:126:1" rel="noopener">Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN)</a> is considering an offer for IndusInd Bank, which IndusInd subsequently denied. Please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kotak-indusind-happy-indusind-bondholders-move-to-overweight" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44542" rel="noopener">Kotak + IndusInd = Happy IndusInd Bondholders; Move to Overweight</a> for more details. On Friday, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indusind-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1558:1" rel="noopener">Indusind Bank (IIB IN)</a> reported a 53% year-on-year decline in second quarter net profit that missed average analyst estimates. Despite the earnings miss and acquisition dismissal, IndusInd’s 3 7/8% coupon bond rose in price during the week.Market Outlook: Market reactions to soaring Coronavirus contagion, underpriced election outcome risks and sidelined treasury investors may augment market illiquidity and impact bank valuation over the near term.

Executive Summary: We noted last weekend that Treasury yields could gap down as True-Blue election sweep expectations declined and that bank valuations would follow. Both outcomes took place during the first part of the week. President Trump has gained enough in polls for traders with bearish positions in long-dated Treasuries to start unwinding them.  If Republicans’ retain the Senate, then fiscal stimulus may be lower than currently expected.  The December VIX future may also underprice the risk of a contested election result while thin markets keep volatility elevated.On Wednesday, most US stock indices posted their biggest single-day drop since June while European shares met five-month lows. As such, implied equity volatility jumped to its highest readings in 6 weeks. The US dollar and commodities also exhibited risk-off behaviour. Soaring Coronavirus cases in the US and Europe added to market jitters on the eventual time to a US federal stimulus package. The lack of a strong bullish reaction in Treasuries while equities sold-off reinforced concerns that low yields significantly reduce hedging protection. Within this background, Asia’s Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds underperformed Tier 2 and Senior Unsecured securities, in concert with developed market risk-off sentiment. The top performing bonds were overwhelmingly short maturity Senior Unsecured in nature. Asia’s HY markets slightly outperformed the US’ as both indexes widened during the week. The relative outperformance of Asia versus the US resulted in slight spread compression between the two indexes, although the remain wide of last year’s average and this years’ tights.Financial institutions only issued US$4.5 billion in USD and Euros. Amongst Asia-headquartered banks, the Industrial Bank Co Ltd A (601166 CH) and Kookmin Bank (KB Financial Group (105560 KS)) were the only financial institutions to access global capital market during the week. The primary market issuance window may be closing very early this year.In terms of potential mergers and acquisitions, Bloomberg reported that Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) is considering an offer for IndusInd Bank, which IndusInd subsequently denied. Please see Kotak + IndusInd = Happy IndusInd Bondholders; Move to Overweight for more details. On Friday, Indusind Bank (IIB IN) reported a 53% year-on-year decline in second quarter net profit that missed average analyst estimates. Despite the earnings miss and acquisition dismissal, IndusInd’s 3 7/8% coupon bond rose in price during the week.Market Outlook: Market reactions to soaring Coronavirus contagion, underpriced election outcome risks and sidelined treasury investors may augment market illiquidity and impact bank valuation over the near term.

Bank Credit Weekly: Risk Reduction on Election and Virus Uncertainty

Asia’s Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds outperformed Tier 2 and Senior Unsecured securities, despite rather constrained credit risk sentiment. In rate markets, US Treasury curve steepening roared back. Concurrently, interest rate futures rose considerably on even higher federal stimulus expectations. Rate markets may be over-pricing the potential for a "True Blue-Sweep". The risk at this point is an effectively split ticket in which Senate Republicans, aided by conservative-Democrats, water-down federal stimulus bills. Treasury yields may gap down as a result. Bank valuations could follow. The sell-off in US Treasuries was not met with increased buying in Emerging Market (EM) or High Yield (HY) markets. EM investors were more focused on early 2021 fund flows while risk-free rates rise. HY investors contemplated the potential for higher default rates over the next year. An unsynchronized global economic recovery will make single name selection more important over the near term.Asia’s HY markets slightly outperformed the US’ as both indexes tightened slightly during the week. The relative outperformance of Asia versus the US resulted in slight spread compression between the two indexes, although the remain wide of last year’s average and this years’ tights.EM capital inflows and US dollar index levels were essentially unchanged during the week despite yuan appreciation. China’s yuan hit the strongest level against the US$ since 2018. As the week closed, a spokeswoman from China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange suggested an official tolerance of the higher currency level. Lower US-China tensions under a Biden administration could push the yuan even stronger. This may be beneficial for regional banking systems.Financial institutions issued over US$14 billion in USD and Euros. Amongst Asia-headquartered banks, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-mitsui-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:217:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kb-capital-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3646:1" rel="noopener">KB Capital (021960 KS)</a> were the only financial institutions to access global capital market during the week. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fbn-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27846:1" rel="noopener">First Bank of Nigeria (FBNH NL)</a> brought a five-year note with an 8.625% coupon for Frontier Market investors. Meanwhile, oversubscription  in the Investment Corporation of Dubai’s note suggests positive investor sentiment towards Dubai, which should be supportive for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commercial-bank-of-dubai" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29706:1" rel="noopener">Commercial Bank of Dubai's (CBD UH)</a> recently issued AT1 bond. For our thoughts on this security, please see: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/commercial-bank-of-dubai-vs-bank-of-east-asia-a-tale-of-two-at1s-in-covid-19-uncertainty" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44387" rel="noopener">Commercial Bank of Dubai Vs Bank of East Asia: A Tale of Two AT1s in COVID-19 Uncertainty</a>.   In terms of Q3 earnings, Thai banks reported mixed results and, despite missing expectations, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-bank-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:213:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Bank's (BBL TB)</a> notes outperformed other Thai Bank bonds, all of which, also tightened week-on-week. For our thoughts on Bangkok Bank and Thai banks more broadly, please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bangkok-bank-s-new-at1-overweight-on-relative-value" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43402" rel="noopener">Bangkok Bank’s New AT1 – Overweight on Relative Value</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-bank-capital-and-chronic-covid-19-sensitivity" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44011" rel="noopener">Thai Bank Capital and Chronic COVID-19 Sensitivity</a>, respectively. As the week closed, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yes-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:767:1" rel="noopener">Yes Bank (YES IN)</a> reported second quarter, to September, results which beat expectations. The bank managed to generate a profit, versus expectations of another loss, on positive operating jaws as interest and operating expense declines offset lower operating revenues. The bank reported a Common Equity Tier 1 ratio above its minimum requirement for the first time in one year following its capital raise in July and after incorporating the Reserve Bank of India’s recent asset risk-weight reductions. Yes Bank’s results should be positive for its 2023 US$-maturity note.Market Outlook: U.S. Treasury market moves this week suggest that the risk is now election outcome driven. The question is whether Democrats will truly sweep the Senate, House, and Presidency. Effectively conservative-Democrats could water-down federal stimulus efforts. At the same time, although stimulus may be positive for US risk assets, higher long-term rates may not be EM friendly. However, a rise in long-term rates may be tempered by the return of US Treasuries as a favored carry-trade option and by more targeted Federal Reserve asset purchase program operations. Eventual reflation is bank credit and equity positive, getting to reflation is not.

Asia’s Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds outperformed Tier 2 and Senior Unsecured securities, despite rather constrained credit risk sentiment. In rate markets, US Treasury curve steepening roared back. Concurrently, interest rate futures rose considerably on even higher federal stimulus expectations. Rate markets may be over-pricing the potential for a "True Blue-Sweep". The risk at this point is an effectively split ticket in which Senate Republicans, aided by conservative-Democrats, water-down federal stimulus bills. Treasury yields may gap down as a result. Bank valuations could follow. The sell-off in US Treasuries was not met with increased buying in Emerging Market (EM) or High Yield (HY) markets. EM investors were more focused on early 2021 fund flows while risk-free rates rise. HY investors contemplated the potential for higher default rates over the next year. An unsynchronized global economic recovery will make single name selection more important over the near term.Asia’s HY markets slightly outperformed the US’ as both indexes tightened slightly during the week. The relative outperformance of Asia versus the US resulted in slight spread compression between the two indexes, although the remain wide of last year’s average and this years’ tights.EM capital inflows and US dollar index levels were essentially unchanged during the week despite yuan appreciation. China’s yuan hit the strongest level against the US$ since 2018. As the week closed, a spokeswoman from China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange suggested an official tolerance of the higher currency level. Lower US-China tensions under a Biden administration could push the yuan even stronger. This may be beneficial for regional banking systems.Financial institutions issued over US$14 billion in USD and Euros. Amongst Asia-headquartered banks, the Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) and KB Capital (021960 KS) were the only financial institutions to access global capital market during the week. The First Bank of Nigeria (FBNH NL) brought a five-year note with an 8.625% coupon for Frontier Market investors. Meanwhile, oversubscription  in the Investment Corporation of Dubai’s note suggests positive investor sentiment towards Dubai, which should be supportive for the Commercial Bank of Dubai's (CBD UH) recently issued AT1 bond. For our thoughts on this security, please see: Commercial Bank of Dubai Vs Bank of East Asia: A Tale of Two AT1s in COVID-19 Uncertainty.   In terms of Q3 earnings, Thai banks reported mixed results and, despite missing expectations, Bangkok Bank's (BBL TB) notes outperformed other Thai Bank bonds, all of which, also tightened week-on-week. For our thoughts on Bangkok Bank and Thai banks more broadly, please see Bangkok Bank’s New AT1 – Overweight on Relative Value and Thai Bank Capital and Chronic COVID-19 Sensitivity, respectively. As the week closed, Yes Bank (YES IN) reported second quarter, to September, results which beat expectations. The bank managed to generate a profit, versus expectations of another loss, on positive operating jaws as interest and operating expense declines offset lower operating revenues. The bank reported a Common Equity Tier 1 ratio above its minimum requirement for the first time in one year following its capital raise in July and after incorporating the Reserve Bank of India’s recent asset risk-weight reductions. Yes Bank’s results should be positive for its 2023 US$-maturity note.Market Outlook: U.S. Treasury market moves this week suggest that the risk is now election outcome driven. The question is whether Democrats will truly sweep the Senate, House, and Presidency. Effectively conservative-Democrats could water-down federal stimulus efforts. At the same time, although stimulus may be positive for US risk assets, higher long-term rates may not be EM friendly. However, a rise in long-term rates may be tempered by the return of US Treasuries as a favored carry-trade option and by more targeted Federal Reserve asset purchase program operations. Eventual reflation is bank credit and equity positive, getting to reflation is not.

Bank Credit Weekly: Election Risk Rises as Asia’s AT1s Outperform

China

China Construction Bank Corporation provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, fund management, foreign exchange, and other services. China Construction Bank provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

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China Construction Bank (601939 CH)

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A must-read on US$-risk sentiment derived from high yield and equity markets, interest rates, dollar levels, capital flows and issuance to frame...

Hank Calenti, CFA

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