Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The pilot launch of the e-CNY, China’s sovereign digital currency effectively competes with domestic mobile payment apps including Alipay, WeChat and Weixin Pay; the e-CNY registered 261m downloads in 2021</li>
<li>Seven domestic commercial banks are included as the e-CNY’s operators, all of which offer extensive branch networks and large bases of retail customers to accelerate the digital currency’s distribution</li>
<li>The e-CNY’s broader digital payments usage should erode Alipay, WeChat and Weixin Pay market shares; yet we believe that the competitive threat is seemingly well discounted in Alibaba share valuations</li>
</ul>


The pilot launch of the e-CNY, China’s sovereign digital currency effectively competes with domestic mobile payment apps including Alipay, WeChat and Weixin Pay; the e-CNY registered 261m downloads in 2021
Seven domestic commercial banks are included as the e-CNY’s operators, all of which offer extensive branch networks and large bases of retail customers to accelerate the digital currency’s distribution
The e-CNY’s broader digital payments usage should erode Alipay, WeChat and Weixin Pay market shares; yet we believe that the competitive threat is seemingly well discounted in Alibaba share valuations


China’s Central Bank Digital Currency; Is It a Major Threat to Non-Bank Digital Payment Providers?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Commodities (ex. precious metals) and global yields are on the rise as the US dollar (DXY) deteriorates. Additionally, EM equities (EEM-US) display a bullish RS reversal relative to MSCI ACWI. </li>
<li>These are all important risk-on signals for global equities that continue to support our neutral yet constructive outlook. We expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead.</li>
<li>Two Sectors that stand to benefit most from rising rates include Energy and Financials. We recommend adding exposure to these Sectors as we see a shift in favor of value.</li>
</ul>


Commodities (ex. precious metals) and global yields are on the rise as the US dollar (DXY) deteriorates. Additionally, EM equities (EEM-US) display a bullish RS reversal relative to MSCI ACWI. 
These are all important risk-on signals for global equities that continue to support our neutral yet constructive outlook. We expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead.
Two Sectors that stand to benefit most from rising rates include Energy and Financials. We recommend adding exposure to these Sectors as we see a shift in favor of value.


Value Sectors Take The Lead On Rising Global Yields; Buying Energy and Financials

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

China Merchants Bank H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Competitor Call Reveals Numerous Additional Risks Which Will Weigh On Results. </li>
<li>No Clarity On Go Forward Core Bottom-Line, Especially Gains and Loss Provisions. </li>
<li>Reserve to NPLs Looks Overstated, as WMP and Securities Are Included In Loan Reserves. </li>
</ul>



Competitor Call Reveals Numerous Additional Risks Which Will Weigh On Results. 
No Clarity On Go Forward Core Bottom-Line, Especially Gains and Loss Provisions. 
Reserve to NPLs Looks Overstated, as WMP and Securities Are Included In Loan Reserves. 


China Merchants Bank – Accelerating Risk

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The December rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituents at 8%. This will lead to large flows.</li>
<li>The largest passive outflows as a result of capping will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> due to their weight exceeding 8% in all three indices.</li>
<li>There are large funding outflows (in terms of days of ADV to trade) on quite a few Hong Kong property stocks as well as stocks from the financials sector.</li>
</ul>


The December rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituents at 8%. This will lead to large flows.
The largest passive outflows as a result of capping will be on Meituan (3690 HK) and Tencent (700 HK) due to their weight exceeding 8% in all three indices.
There are large funding outflows (in terms of days of ADV to trade) on quite a few Hong Kong property stocks as well as stocks from the financials sector.


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: December Rebalance Flows Post Capping

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 5th. </li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Alibaba, and banks (CCB and CMB).</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 5th. 
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Alibaba, and banks (CCB and CMB).


HK Short Interest: BABA Shorts Doubled in 4 Weeks

China

China Construction Bank Corporation provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, fund management, foreign exchange, and other services. China Construction Bank provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

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China Construction Bank (601939 CH)

China’s Central Bank Digital Currency; Is It a Major Threat to Non-Bank Digital Payment Providers?

The digital yuan's growth in digital payments usage could erode Alipay and Tencent app market shares; yet we think the competitive threat is...

Victor Galliano

Value Sectors Take The Lead On Rising Global Yields; Buying Energy and Financials

Two Sectors that stand to benefit most from rising rates include Energy and Financials. We recommend adding exposure to these Sectors as we see a...

Vermilion Research

China Merchants Bank – Accelerating Risk

CHINA MERCHANTS BANK: A discussion over the use of gains and a drop in loss provisions during 3Q21 would have been a better use of time. CMB’s core...

Thomas J. Monaco

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: December Rebalance Flows Post Capping

The Dec rebalance of the HK indices will use today's closing prices to cap the stocks at 8%. Meituan and Tencent will see large outflows due to...

Brian Freitas

HK Short Interest: BABA Shorts Doubled in 4 Weeks

We highlight weekly short changes in Alibaba, and banks (CCB and CMB) in the latest Hong Kong SFC short aggregate report.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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52-week Range

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