Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Among bigger cap GEM banks, we pick four longs and two shorts as our conviction calls for 2023</li>
<li>Our core buys are Bank Mandiri from Indonesia, Hana Financial from South Korea, China Construction Bank and BanColombia; we also have a special mentions category for Banco Itau and Nubank</li>
<li>Our key sells are ICICI Bank from India and digital bank Jago from Indonesia</li>
</ul>


Among bigger cap GEM banks, we pick four longs and two shorts as our conviction calls for 2023
Our core buys are Bank Mandiri from Indonesia, Hana Financial from South Korea, China Construction Bank and BanColombia; we also have a special mentions category for Banco Itau and Nubank
Our key sells are ICICI Bank from India and digital bank Jago from Indonesia


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime Group (20 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> are potential deletions while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/picc-property-casualty-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:350:1" rel="noopener">PICC Property &amp; Casualty (2328 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-techn" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32210:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education &amp; Techn (9901 HK)</a> are potential adds.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.8% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$950m. Official capping will be based off the close of trading on 3 September.</li>
<li>There will be 1-2x ADV to buy on the adds and over 2x ADV to sell in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics</a>. The impact on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime</a> is lower given the recent surge in volume.</li>
</ul>



SenseTime Group (20 HK) and JD Logistics (2618 HK) are potential deletions while PICC Property &amp; Casualty (2328 HK) and New Oriental Education &amp; Techn (9901 HK) are potential adds.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.8% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$950m. Official capping will be based off the close of trading on 3 September.
There will be 1-2x ADV to buy on the adds and over 2x ADV to sell in JD Logistics. The impact on SenseTime is lower given the recent surge in volume.


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in September

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Agricultural Bank Of China / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$9.3bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Banks were a big buy.</li>
<li>It is not clear how much of this is H/A discounts, expected dividend tax removal, shareholder return KPIs for SOE CEOs, upcoming Third Plenum policy, or national team buying...</li>
<li>But valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows - national team and otherwise.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$9.3bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Banks were a big buy.
It is not clear how much of this is H/A discounts, expected dividend tax removal, shareholder return KPIs for SOE CEOs, upcoming Third Plenum policy, or national team buying...
But valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows - national team and otherwise.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 June 2024); Still a Net Buy, but Less Strong. Financials Dominate

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 28th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for CCB (939 HK), ICBC (1398 HK), Tencent (700 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 28th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for CCB (939 HK), ICBC (1398 HK), Tencent (700 HK).


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jun 28th): CCB, ICBC, Tencent

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 21st.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for BOC, CNOOC, CCB, BYD, Zijin Mining.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 21st.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for BOC, CNOOC, CCB, BYD, Zijin Mining.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jun 21st): BOC, CNOOC, CCB, BYD, Zijin Mining

China

China Construction Bank Corporation provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, fund management, foreign exchange, and other services. China Construction Bank provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

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China Construction Bank (601939 CH)

GEM Banks; Conviction Calls for 2023

Our core buys are Bank Mandiri, Hana Financial, China Construction Bank and BanColombia; we also have special mention for Banco Itau and Nubank;...

Victor Galliano

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in September

We forecast two changes in September with a 1-way turnover of 1.8% resulting in a 1-way trade of HK$950m. There will be 1-2 days of ADV to trade on...

Brian Freitas

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 June 2024); Still a Net Buy, but Less Strong. Financials Dominate

SOUTHBOUND saw its 4th net sell day since Chinese New Year last week. But the week ended up again. That is ~20 weeks in a row. But SOUTHBOUND...

Travis Lundy

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jun 28th): CCB, ICBC, Tencent

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for CCB (939 HK), ICBC (1398 HK), Tencent (700 HK).

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jun 21st): BOC, CNOOC, CCB, BYD, Zijin Mining

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for BOC, CNOOC, CCB, BYD, Zijin Mining.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

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