Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>There is little in the long-term and current figures of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:656:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)</a> that leaves one assured of strength, stability, earnings power, and rather the opposite.</li>
<li>Sharply expanding LDR is an increase in loans relative to deposits, and it tends to drive rising NIM. Where LDR expands (a lot) but NIM contracts, it is a concern. </li>
<li>The bank appears to have a 2-3x higher base of credit costs/operating profit, with an ROE of 10% now vs 18% some years ago - with much more geopolitical risk. </li>
</ul>


There is little in the long-term and current figures of Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK) that leaves one assured of strength, stability, earnings power, and rather the opposite.
Sharply expanding LDR is an increase in loans relative to deposits, and it tends to drive rising NIM. Where LDR expands (a lot) but NIM contracts, it is a concern. 
The bank appears to have a 2-3x higher base of credit costs/operating profit, with an ROE of 10% now vs 18% some years ago - with much more geopolitical risk. 


Bank of China - Surging LDR, Falling NIM, ROE, with Higher Base of Credit Costs/Operating Income

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Brand-Spanking New (9 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>We used to do it. We brought it back better, with lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 50 Trade Recommendations.</li>
<li>The last 9 weeks (since the start of the new Trcker and Portfolio 8 weeks ago) have seen net portfolio performance of +0.50%, +1.35%, +0.14%, +0.47%, +0.15%, +0.12%, -0.29%, -0.71%.</li>
</ul>


The Brand-Spanking New (9 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning in pairs over time, etc.
We used to do it. We brought it back better, with lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 50 Trade Recommendations.
The last 9 weeks (since the start of the new Trcker and Portfolio 8 weeks ago) have seen net portfolio performance of +0.50%, +1.35%, +0.14%, +0.47%, +0.15%, +0.12%, -0.29%, -0.71%.


Quiddity A/H Premium Tracker (To Oct13): Volatility Up Bigly, Wide Spreads Wider

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>This is the brand spanking new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.</li>
<li>The data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and four weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected and charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).</li>
<li>We like the nifty interactive tables+charts (please play with them!) and we welcome feedback. This 4-day week saw HKD 9bn+ of net buying. That makes 12 weeks of net inflows.</li>
</ul>


This is the brand spanking new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.
The data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and four weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected and charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).
We like the nifty interactive tables+charts (please play with them!) and we welcome feedback. This 4-day week saw HKD 9bn+ of net buying. That makes 12 weeks of net inflows.


Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Week to 13Oct23) :  Meituan Bought, Tencent Sold

Financial sector veteran, KT Capital Group

Fern Wang

Financial sector veteran

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

<ul>
<li>Central Huijin, the sovereign wealth fund, increased their shareholding of the Big 4 banks in China on 11 October 2023</li>
<li>Contrary to their last similar action, Huijin will increase its stakes in these banks over the next 6 months period, providing stabilizing force of the stock prices </li>
<li>Worries on property sector, LGFV and the overall health of the economy have significantly depressed banking stocks. </li>
</ul>


Central Huijin, the sovereign wealth fund, increased their shareholding of the Big 4 banks in China on 11 October 2023
Contrary to their last similar action, Huijin will increase its stakes in these banks over the next 6 months period, providing stabilizing force of the stock prices 
Worries on property sector, LGFV and the overall health of the economy have significantly depressed banking stocks. 


Huijin’s Increase in Shareholdings of the Big4 May Signal Temporary Bottoming of the Stocks

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In this China banks screen, we focus on the credit quality headwinds going forward, as well as the returns trends that can absorb potentially worsening cost of risk charges</li>
<li>China bank shares continue to be poor performers; yet we see selective contrarian buy opportunities, for those banks with deeply discounted valuations and strong balance sheets including credit quality metrics</li>
<li>We stick with Industrial Bank and CCB as buys, adding Ping An Bank to the buys both of which have attractive valuations; Minsheng remains our fundamental sell</li>
</ul>


In this China banks screen, we focus on the credit quality headwinds going forward, as well as the returns trends that can absorb potentially worsening cost of risk charges
China bank shares continue to be poor performers; yet we see selective contrarian buy opportunities, for those banks with deeply discounted valuations and strong balance sheets including credit quality metrics
We stick with Industrial Bank and CCB as buys, adding Ping An Bank to the buys both of which have attractive valuations; Minsheng remains our fundamental sell


China Banks; Deep Value Despite the Rising Credit Quality Risks

China

China Construction Bank Corporation provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, fund management, foreign exchange, and other services. China Construction Bank provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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China Construction Bank (601939 CH)

Bank of China - Surging LDR, Falling NIM, ROE, with Higher Base of Credit Costs/Operating Income

BOC has seen LDR expansion accompanied by narrowing NIM, raising questions on marginal lending. ROE is worsening dramatically, with credit costs...

Daniel Tabbush

Quiddity A/H Premium Tracker (To Oct13): Volatility Up Bigly, Wide Spreads Wider

The Quiddity A-H Monitor, tracking A/H premium positioning, with interactive tables, charts, and trade recommendations. A bad week as pairwise vol...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Week to 13Oct23) : Meituan Bought, Tencent Sold

SOUTHBOUND Connect Flows this week saw net buying for the 12th week in a row. Meituan was the top net buy. Tencent the top net sell. Banks saw...

Travis Lundy

Huijin’s Increase in Shareholdings of the Big4 May Signal Temporary Bottoming of the Stocks

Huijin’s increase in shareholdings of the big four banks may signal temporary bottoming of the stocks. Worries remained banks' exposure in property...

Fern Wang

China Banks; Deep Value Despite the Rising Credit Quality Risks

China banks face credit quality hurdles, yet there are opportunities with discounted valuations and strong balance sheets; Industrial Bank, CCB...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Bank of China - Surging LDR, Falling NIM, ROE, with Higher Base of Credit Costs/Operating Income

BOC has seen LDR expansion accompanied by narrowing NIM, raising questions on marginal lending. ROE is worsening dramatically, with credit costs...

Daniel Tabbush

Quiddity A/H Premium Tracker (To Oct13): Volatility Up Bigly, Wide Spreads Wider

The Quiddity A-H Monitor, tracking A/H premium positioning, with interactive tables, charts, and trade recommendations. A bad week as pairwise vol...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Week to 13Oct23) : Meituan Bought, Tencent Sold

SOUTHBOUND Connect Flows this week saw net buying for the 12th week in a row. Meituan was the top net buy. Tencent the top net sell. Banks saw...

Travis Lundy

Huijin’s Increase in Shareholdings of the Big4 May Signal Temporary Bottoming of the Stocks

Huijin’s increase in shareholdings of the big four banks may signal temporary bottoming of the stocks. Worries remained banks' exposure in property...

Fern Wang

China Banks; Deep Value Despite the Rising Credit Quality Risks

​China banks face credit quality hurdles, yet there are opportunities with discounted valuations and strong balance sheets; Industrial Bank, CCB...

Victor Galliano

China banks face credit quality hurdles, yet there are opportunities with discounted valuations and strong balance sheets; Industrial Bank, CCB...