Corporate Credit Analyst

Alan Greene

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Recently announced industrial output figures for June suggest that Korea may be able to trade its way towards higher growth rates. However, at the same time, on 30 June, the Korea Times carried a headline “Bedroom shock: Korea's sexless rate ranked world's second”. The sovereign rating of its neighbour Japan has seen steady pressure for the last five years driven in part by its demographic profile. Korea's demographic profile is likely to deteriorate more rapidly than Japan's and we should therefore expect a similar debt induced stall in growth. The banking system is under pressure and this could soon translate into pressure on Korea's credit ratings.

Recently announced industrial output figures for June suggest that Korea may be able to trade its way towards higher growth rates. However, at the same time, on 30 June, the Korea Times carried a headline “Bedroom shock: Korea's sexless rate ranked world's second”. The sovereign rating of its neighbour Japan has seen steady pressure for the last five years driven in part by its demographic profile. Korea's demographic profile is likely to deteriorate more rapidly than Japan's and we should therefore expect a similar debt induced stall in growth. The banking system is under pressure and this could soon translate into pressure on Korea's credit ratings.

Can "sexless" Korea Beat the Demographic Cliff and Maintain Its Credit Rating?

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

There is nothing quite as impressive as a decade-long decline of NPL ratios. But there is something more in the Philippines that suggests this will continue. There are almost no corporates with interest coverage at less than 1x. While SE Asian banks tend to look best in Asia, and where Philippines looks good in comparison, corporate interest coverage is another area where it shines.We all know that credit/GDP is lower in Philippines than most Asian countries, at just 62%. But what matters for…

There is nothing quite as impressive as a decade-long decline of NPL ratios. But there is something more in the Philippines that suggests this will continue. There are almost no corporates with interest coverage at less than 1x. While SE Asian banks tend to look best in Asia, and where Philippines looks good in comparison, corporate interest coverage is another area where it shines.We all know that credit/GDP is lower in Philippines than most Asian countries, at just 62%. But what matters for…

Philippines Shine in Terms of Corporate Interest Coverage

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

Philippines imports came in stronger than expected rising 11.7% y-o-y in March compared to a 5.6% y-o-y decline in February. Exports data which had been released a few weeks ago had seen a decline of 15.1% y-o-y in March compared to a fall of 4.5% y-o-y in February. The trade balance in March recorded a wider deficit of USD 1.746bn compared to a deficit of USD 1.104bn in February.On a 3-month moving average basis, non-oil imports increased around 10.8% y-o-y compared to an increase of 11.4%…

Philippines imports came in stronger than expected rising 11.7% y-o-y in March compared to a 5.6% y-o-y decline in February. Exports data which had been released a few weeks ago had seen a decline of 15.1% y-o-y in March compared to a fall of 4.5% y-o-y in February. The trade balance in March recorded a wider deficit of USD 1.746bn compared to a deficit of USD 1.104bn in February.On a 3-month moving average basis, non-oil imports increased around 10.8% y-o-y compared to an increase of 11.4%…

Philippines: Strong Domestic Demand Reflected in Rising Imports Data

Frontier and emerging markets (Vietnam)

Dylan Waller

Nomadic Equity

The Philippines has been experiencing high levels of economic growth, which has been driven by the business process outsourcing industry. &nbsp;The business process outsourcing industry has&nbsp;been a strong catalyst for the development of the real estate industry in The Philippines. &nbsp;MegaWorld Corporation provides investors with diverse exposure to the real estate industry, has low valuation, and also has a strong track record of success in The Philippines.

The Philippines has been experiencing high levels of economic growth, which has been driven by the business process outsourcing industry. &nbsp;The business process outsourcing industry has&nbsp;been a strong catalyst for the development of the real estate industry in The Philippines. &nbsp;MegaWorld Corporation provides investors with diverse exposure to the real estate industry, has low valuation, and also has a strong track record of success in The Philippines.

MegaWorld Corporation: Access the Growth of Real Estate in The Philippines

<ul><li>Philippine banks are now taking over others in SE Asia in terms of credit growth&nbsp;as they become more comfortable with their own financials and the overall economy.</li><li>Indonesian Bank loan growth has stepped down dramatically over the past few years. This reflects cyclically less corporate demand combined with increased caution from the banks</li><li>Thai Banks now report the lowest growth. With GDP growing at 0.5% this is reflective of demand.</li></ul>

Philippine banks are now taking over others in SE Asia in terms of credit growth&nbsp;as they become more comfortable with their own financials and the overall economy.Indonesian Bank loan growth has stepped down dramatically over the past few years. This reflects cyclically less corporate demand combined with increased caution from the banksThai Banks now report the lowest growth. With GDP growing at 0.5% this is reflective of demand.

South East Asian Loan Growth  - Phillippine, Thai and Indonesian Banks Compared.

Philippines

China Banking Corporation is a commercial bank. The Bank provides products and services such as deposit products, loans and trade finance, treasury products, trust products, corporate finance and other investment banking services.

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China Banking (CHIB PM)

Can "sexless" Korea Beat the Demographic Cliff and Maintain Its Credit Rating?

Recently announced industrial output figures for June suggest that Korea may be able to trade its way towards higher growth rates. However, at the...

Alan Greene

Philippines Shine in Terms of Corporate Interest Coverage

There is nothing quite as impressive as a decade-long decline of NPL ratios. But there is something more in the Philippines that suggests this will...

Daniel Tabbush

Philippines: Strong Domestic Demand Reflected in Rising Imports Data

Philippines imports came in stronger than expected rising 11.7% y-o-y in March compared to a 5.6% y-o-y decline in February. Exports data which had...

Rajan Govil

MegaWorld Corporation: Access the Growth of Real Estate in The Philippines

The Philippines has been experiencing high levels of economic growth, which has been driven by the business process outsourcing industry. The...

Nomadic Equity

South East Asian Loan Growth - Phillippine, Thai and Indonesian Banks Compared.

Philippine banks are now taking over others in SE Asia in terms of credit growth as they become more comfortable with their own financials and the...

Daniel Tabbush

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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