Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Chuanyi Zhou

Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

China Aoyuan's H1/21 results were in line with our expectations, with good contracted sales and revenue growth, as well as stable debt. The company has a good base for revenue recognition. That said, profitability has been under pressure. Aoyuan has an adequate liquidity profile, and has laid out refinancing plans for its upcoming maturities. The company has a debt-reduction target of 10-15% p.a. in FY 2021, and aims to achieve this by improving cash collection from contracted sales and limiting expansion (particularly land spending) to 20% of contracted sales p.a. Aoyuan has expanded aggressively over the past few years, funded by debt, with the debt burden having doubled over three years. We move our recommendation to "Buy" on the CAPG 8.5 2022 Notes.

  China Aoyuan's H1/21 results were in line with our expectations, with good contracted sales and revenue growth, as well as stable debt. The company has a good base for revenue recognition. That said, profitability has been under pressure. Aoyuan has an adequate liquidity profile, and has laid out refinancing plans for its upcoming maturities.   The company has a debt-reduction target of 10-15% p.a. in FY 2021, and aims to achieve this by improving cash collection from contracted sales and limiting expansion (particularly land spending) to 20% of contracted sales p.a. Aoyuan has expanded aggressively over the past few years, funded by debt, with the debt burden having doubled over three years.   We move our recommendation to "Buy" on the CAPG 8.5 2022 Notes. 

China Aoyuan - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2021 Results - Lucror Analytics

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-7613'>China Aoyuan Property</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-8108'>Hopson Development</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-1776'>Indika Energy</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-29231'>KWG Living Group</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-240'>Sunac China Holdings</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-473'>Wynn Macau Ltd</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.China Aoyuan PropertyHopson DevelopmentIndika EnergyKWG Living GroupSunac China HoldingsWynn Macau Ltd

Morning Views Asia: China Aoyuan Property, Hopson Development, Indika Energy, KWG Living Group

In this month’s "In-Focus" section, we discuss Chinese developers’ urban redevelopment businesses, including local governments' role in urban renewal projects and the various redevelopment models, as well as the impact of such projects on companies' financials. We also give an overview of recent bond defaults. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the "In-Focus" section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  In this month’s "In-Focus" section, we discuss Chinese developers’ urban redevelopment businesses, including local governments' role in urban renewal projects and the various redevelopment models, as well as the impact of such projects on companies' financials. We also give an overview of recent bond defaults.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the "In-Focus" section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - Chinese Developers’ Urban Redevelopment Businesses - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of July includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

  The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of July includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Book - July 2021 - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-7613'>China Aoyuan Property</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-10675'>Honghua Group</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-29231'>KWG Living Group</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.China Aoyuan PropertyHonghua GroupKWG Living Group

Morning Views Asia: China Aoyuan Property, Honghua Group, KWG Living Group

China

China Aoyuan Group Limited operates as a property development company. The Company develops retails shops and integrated residential projects. China Aoyuan Group conducts businesses domestically and internationally.

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China Aoyuan Property (3883 HK)

China Aoyuan - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2021 Results - Lucror Analytics

China Aoyuan's H1/21 results were in line with our expectations, with good contracted sales and revenue growth, as well as stable debt. The...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: China Aoyuan Property, Hopson Development, Indika Energy, KWG Living Group

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Monthly - Chinese Developers’ Urban Redevelopment Businesses - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s "In-Focus" section, we discuss Chinese developers’ urban redevelopment businesses, including local governments' role in urban...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Trade Book - July 2021 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of July includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: China Aoyuan Property, Honghua Group, KWG Living Group

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

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P/E

Dividend (Yield)