Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Chevron Corporation's third-quarter 2024 financial results demonstrated a mixture of positive operational achievements and financial headwinds.</li><li>The company reported earnings of $4.5 billion or $2.48 per share, with adjusted earnings similarly at $4.5 billion or $2.51 per share.</li><li>Despite these substantial earnings, this marked a decrease from the prior year largely due to lower liquids realizations and increased depreciation, depletion, and amortization (DD&A), particularly at the Tengizchevroil (TCO) project in Kazakhstan.</li></ul>

Chevron Corporation's third-quarter 2024 financial results demonstrated a mixture of positive operational achievements and financial headwinds.The company reported earnings of $4.5 billion or $2.48 per share, with adjusted earnings similarly at $4.5 billion or $2.51 per share.Despite these substantial earnings, this marked a decrease from the prior year largely due to lower liquids realizations and increased depreciation, depletion, and amortization (DD&A), particularly at the Tengizchevroil (TCO) project in Kazakhstan.

Chevron Corporation Unveils Aggressive $3 Billion Cost-Cutting Plan – Here’s What It Means for Investors! - Major Drivers

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Chevron’s Q3 revenue declined 6.3% YoY, while its net profit dropped 31.2%. Yet it beat its revenue and EPS estimates by 3.7% and 3.6%, respectively.  </li>
<li>Chevron achieved a record Q3 output of 3.36 mboepd, up 7% YoY, driven by Permian growth. Full-year production growth is expected near the top of its 4-7% guidance.</li>
<li>Chevron returned USD 4.7 billion in buybacks and USD 2.9 billion in dividends. Q4 is expected to see USD 1 billion in dividends and USD 4–4.75 billion in buybacks.</li>
</ul>


Chevron’s Q3 revenue declined 6.3% YoY, while its net profit dropped 31.2%. Yet it beat its revenue and EPS estimates by 3.7% and 3.6%, respectively.  
Chevron achieved a record Q3 output of 3.36 mboepd, up 7% YoY, driven by Permian growth. Full-year production growth is expected near the top of its 4-7% guidance.
Chevron returned USD 4.7 billion in buybacks and USD 2.9 billion in dividends. Q4 is expected to see USD 1 billion in dividends and USD 4–4.75 billion in buybacks.


[Earnings Review] Chevron Surpasses Expectations on Higher Output and Improved Efficiency

<ul>
<li>Chevron set to report Q3 earnings on 01/Nov, with analysts expecting revenue and EPS to fall by 7% YoY and 8.9%, respectively. Outlook is bearish due to lower crude prices.</li>
<li>Chevron's OI PCR at 0.95 signals neutral sentiment, while an 97% IV percentile indicates high volatility. Call OI strikes are focused on strikes of 150, 155, and 157.5.</li>
<li>Chevron’s short interest fell for the second consecutive biweekly period, reaching 53.51 million shares (2.95% of float) as of 15/Oct—a 0.6% fall from 30/Sep.</li>
</ul>


Chevron set to report Q3 earnings on 01/Nov, with analysts expecting revenue and EPS to fall by 7% YoY and 8.9%, respectively. Outlook is bearish due to lower crude prices.
Chevron's OI PCR at 0.95 signals neutral sentiment, while an 97% IV percentile indicates high volatility. Call OI strikes are focused on strikes of 150, 155, and 157.5.
Chevron’s short interest fell for the second consecutive biweekly period, reaching 53.51 million shares (2.95% of float) as of 15/Oct—a 0.6% fall from 30/Sep.


[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Chevron’s OI PCR Shows Neutral Sentiment Amid High Implied Volatility

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 03/Jan, U.S. crude inventories fell by 1m barrels, missing expectations of a 1.8m barrel decrease. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected.</li>
<li>U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 40 Bcf for the week ending 03/Jan, moderately beating analyst expectations of a 39 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 6.5% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Analysts lowered 12-month PTs on Exxon, BP, Halliburton, TotalEnergies, and SLB. Morgan Stanley upgraded rating on Shell to Overweight and raised PT to USD 79.8 from USD 66.5.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 03/Jan, U.S. crude inventories fell by 1m barrels, missing expectations of a 1.8m barrel decrease. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected.
U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 40 Bcf for the week ending 03/Jan, moderately beating analyst expectations of a 39 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 6.5% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Analysts lowered 12-month PTs on Exxon, BP, Halliburton, TotalEnergies, and SLB. Morgan Stanley upgraded rating on Shell to Overweight and raised PT to USD 79.8 from USD 66.5.


[ETP 2025/02] Bearish EIA Inventory Report Drags WTI Prices, Henry Hub Rebounds on Tightening Supply

<ul>
<li>Chevron's Q3 revenue is expected to decline by 7% YoY, with EPS projected to fall 8.9% due to contracting refining margins and lower price realisations.</li>
<li>The early September plunge in oil prices may further squeeze already tight refining margins. Management anticipates a slowdown in output due to increased maintenance in Q3.</li>
<li>Chevron became the most shorted large-cap stock in the US in August, with shares shorted increasing by over USD 200 million amid growing bearish sentiment.</li>
</ul>


Chevron's Q3 revenue is expected to decline by 7% YoY, with EPS projected to fall 8.9% due to contracting refining margins and lower price realisations.
The early September plunge in oil prices may further squeeze already tight refining margins. Management anticipates a slowdown in output due to increased maintenance in Q3.
Chevron became the most shorted large-cap stock in the US in August, with shares shorted increasing by over USD 200 million amid growing bearish sentiment.


[Earnings Preview] Chevron Faces Pressure from Tight Refining Margins and Increased Maintenance

United States

Chevron Corporation is an integrated energy company with operations in countries located around the world.  The Company produces and transports crude oil and natural gas.  Chevron also refines, markets, and distributes fuels as well as is involved in chemical operations, mining operations, power generation and energy services.

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Chevron Corp (CVX US)

Chevron Corporation Unveils Aggressive $3 Billion Cost-Cutting Plan – Here’s What It Means for Investors! - Major Drivers

Chevron Corporation's third-quarter 2024 financial results demonstrated a mixture of positive operational achievements and financial...

Baptista Research

[Earnings Review] Chevron Surpasses Expectations on Higher Output and Improved Efficiency

Chevron's Q3 results show revenue and profit declines, but beat estimates. Record output driven by Permian growth, with strong returns to...

Mint Finance

[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Chevron’s OI PCR Shows Neutral Sentiment Amid High Implied Volatility

Chevron’s Q3 revenue and EPS are expected to fall YoY lower crude oil prices amid extensive maintenance in Q3. OI PCR implies neutral sentiment....

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/02] Bearish EIA Inventory Report Drags WTI Prices, Henry Hub Rebounds on Tightening Supply

US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose; nat-gas withdrawal beat expectations. Analysts...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Chevron Faces Pressure from Tight Refining Margins and Increased Maintenance

Chevron’s short-term outlook is gloomy due to weak oil prices and global oil demand amid regulatory complications with its Hess purchase. In Q3,...

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Chevron Corporation Unveils Aggressive $3 Billion Cost-Cutting Plan – Here’s What It Means for Investors! - Major Drivers

Chevron Corporation's third-quarter 2024 financial results demonstrated a mixture of positive operational achievements and financial...

Baptista Research

[Earnings Review] Chevron Surpasses Expectations on Higher Output and Improved Efficiency

​Chevron's Q3 results show revenue and profit declines, but beat estimates. Record output driven by Permian growth, with strong returns to...

Mint Finance

[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Chevron’s OI PCR Shows Neutral Sentiment Amid High Implied Volatility

Chevron’s Q3 revenue and EPS are expected to fall YoY lower crude oil prices amid extensive maintenance in Q3. OI PCR implies neutral sentiment....

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/02] Bearish EIA Inventory Report Drags WTI Prices, Henry Hub Rebounds on Tightening Supply

​US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose; nat-gas withdrawal beat expectations. Analysts...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Chevron Faces Pressure from Tight Refining Margins and Increased Maintenance

Chevron’s short-term outlook is gloomy due to weak oil prices and global oil demand amid regulatory complications with its Hess purchase. In Q3,...

Mint Finance

Chevron's Q3 results show revenue and profit declines, but beat estimates. Record output driven by Permian growth, with strong returns to...

US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose; nat-gas withdrawal beat expectations. Analysts...