Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The 2Q24 earnings were strong both YoY and QoQ, with momentum expected to continue growing into 3Q24E, driven by recovering swine prices, particularly in Thailand and China, while prices in Vietnam should remain elevated.</li><li>However, the valuation metrics indicate that the stock is overvalued relative to its fundamentals, as the share price has already risen in response to the earnings recovery.</li><li>The tactical upside is thus very limited (compared to our previous neutral stance), but the long-term growth prospects remain robust. </li></ul>

The 2Q24 earnings were strong both YoY and QoQ, with momentum expected to continue growing into 3Q24E, driven by recovering swine prices, particularly in Thailand and China, while prices in Vietnam should remain elevated.However, the valuation metrics indicate that the stock is overvalued relative to its fundamentals, as the share price has already risen in response to the earnings recovery.The tactical upside is thus very limited (compared to our previous neutral stance), but the long-term growth prospects remain robust. 

Charoen Pokphand Foods - Strong 2Q24 Core Profit Growth of 14.6-Fold QoQ and a Turnaround YoY

Charoen Pokphand Foods  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>KTX maintains a Neutral rating, reflecting a balanced view on both the fundamental and tactical aspects.</li><li>However, the long-term growth prospects remain strong.</li><li>Our new fair value stands at Bt21.43, calculated using the earnings yield and a required rate of return of 6.5%, aligned with the PER target of 15x.</li></ul>

KTX maintains a Neutral rating, reflecting a balanced view on both the fundamental and tactical aspects.However, the long-term growth prospects remain strong.Our new fair value stands at Bt21.43, calculated using the earnings yield and a required rate of return of 6.5%, aligned with the PER target of 15x.

Charoen Pokphand Foods - 2Q24E Earnings to Grow Strongly; 2024-26E Earnings Forecasts Revised Up

<ul><li>KTX maintains our Neutral rating. The valuation metrics suggest that the share price has risen beyond the current valuation; meanwhile, the long-term growth outlook remains intact, and the tactical view is neutral.</li><li>The fair value is Bt18.58. based on the earnings yield, with a required rate of return of 3.31%.</li><li>CPF’s 1Q24 net profit amounted to Bt1.2bn, better than our projection calling for a loss of Bt1.4bn. </li></ul>

KTX maintains our Neutral rating. The valuation metrics suggest that the share price has risen beyond the current valuation; meanwhile, the long-term growth outlook remains intact, and the tactical view is neutral.The fair value is Bt18.58. based on the earnings yield, with a required rate of return of 3.31%.CPF’s 1Q24 net profit amounted to Bt1.2bn, better than our projection calling for a loss of Bt1.4bn. 

Charoen Pokphand Foods - 1Q24 Earnings Turnaround Better than Expected

<ul><li>KTX maintains our Neutral rating. Our valuation metrics show neutral views in terms of the fundamentals and tactical perspectives.</li><li>However, the long-term earnings growth should remain strong.</li><li>We assess the fair value at Bt18.56, based on the earnings yield and a required return of 3.31%.</li></ul>

KTX maintains our Neutral rating. Our valuation metrics show neutral views in terms of the fundamentals and tactical perspectives.However, the long-term earnings growth should remain strong.We assess the fair value at Bt18.56, based on the earnings yield and a required return of 3.31%.

Charoen Pokphand Foods -Expect Core Loss in 1Q24E Before Turning Around in 2H24E

<ul><li>The 4Q23 and 2023 core earnings were in the red due to a narrower margin, along with higher interest expenses and operating expenses.</li><li>Looking forward, the earnings recovery may remain slow.</li><li>KTX maintains our Neutral rating, with a fair value of Bt18.62, based on the earnings yield and a required return of 3.61%. </li></ul>

The 4Q23 and 2023 core earnings were in the red due to a narrower margin, along with higher interest expenses and operating expenses.Looking forward, the earnings recovery may remain slow.KTX maintains our Neutral rating, with a fair value of Bt18.62, based on the earnings yield and a required return of 3.61%. 

Charoen Pokphand Foods - 4Q23 and 2023 Core Losses Due to Lower Margin

Thailand

Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company Limited produces a wide range of food products. The Company's products include chicken, pork, shrimp, fish, eggs. and duck.

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CP FOODS (CPF TB)

Charoen Pokphand Foods - Strong 2Q24 Core Profit Growth of 14.6-Fold QoQ and a Turnaround YoY

As a result, we maintain our Neutral rating, with a 12M FV of Bt22.25, based on the earnings yield approach and a required return of 7.2%,...

Krungthai XSpring

Charoen Pokphand Foods - 2Q24E Earnings to Grow Strongly; 2024-26E Earnings Forecasts Revised Up

KTX maintains a Neutral rating, reflecting a balanced view on both the fundamental and tactical aspects. However, the long-term growth prospects...

Krungthai XSpring

Charoen Pokphand Foods - 1Q24 Earnings Turnaround Better than Expected

The valuation metrics suggest that the share price has risen beyond the current valuation; meanwhile, the long-term growth outlook remains intact,...

Krungthai XSpring

Charoen Pokphand Foods -Expect Core Loss in 1Q24E Before Turning Around in 2H24E

KTX maintains our Neutral rating. Our valuation metrics show neutral views in terms of the fundamentals and tactical perspectives. However, the...

Krungthai XSpring

Charoen Pokphand Foods - 4Q23 and 2023 Core Losses Due to Lower Margin

The 4Q23 and 2023 core earnings were in the red due to a narrower margin, along with higher interest expenses and operating expenses.

Krungthai XSpring

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