ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div class="content-highlight">This week's offering across <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a> is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up pieces. Please see below for a brief summary of this week's published insights. Please scroll to the detail section for a fuller account.</div><h2>Macro Insights</h2>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/silver-lining-in-the-trade-war-playbook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:19195">Silver Lining in the Trade War Playbook</a> , our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/766" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> comments on the potential benefits for Thailand from the US versus China trade war. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/malaysian-elections-prime-minister-najib-s-to-lose" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:19229">Malaysian Elections: Prime Minister Najib’s to Lose</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/35" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:35">Manu Bhaskaran</a> suggests that the election in Malaysia is Najib’s to lose. The new electoral boundaries which opposition parties are extremely helpful to the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition, will add several more seats to the BN’s haul and potentially allow it to have a huge majority in parliament even if it loses the popular vote. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-further-strengthening-in-domestic-economy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:19252">Singapore: Further Strengthening in Domestic Economy</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/35" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:35">Manu Bhaskaran</a> examines recent barometers for the Singapore economy which suggest a feed through from export strength to the domestic economy.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thailand-policy-to-remain-accommodative-in-light-of-weak-spots" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:19267">Thailand: Policy to Remain Accommodative in Light of Weak Spots</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/35" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:35">Manu Bhaskaran</a> notes that the economic recovery In Thailand continues apace, even though a key policymaker, the Bank of Thailand (BOT), deems it to be uneven. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asia-economic-trends-inflation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:19292">Asia Economic Trends - Inflation</a>, economic insight provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/35" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:35">Manu Bhaskaran</a> points towards a recent uptick in inflation numbers in Indonesia and the Philippines putting pressure on policymakers. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/macroeconomics-report-impact-of-us-trade-policies-warning-point-for-korus-fta-s-negotiations" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:19368">Macroeconomics Report - Impact Of US Trade Policies: Warning Point For KORUS FTA’s Negotiations</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/2192" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2192">Research at Rong Viet Securities</a> comment on the implications for Vietnam from increased global tensions on trade. <h2>Equity Bottom-Up Insights</h2>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/elang-mahkota-teknologi-the-most-diversified-online-group-plus-local-unicorn-play" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:19319">Elang Mahkota Teknologi: The Most Diversified Online Group Plus Local Unicorn Play</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1079" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1079">Johannes Salim, CFA</a> comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7752" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1">Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk (EMTK IJ)</a> following a conference call with the company. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hexindo-exposure-to-infrastructure-theme-in-indonesia-with-no-debt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:19338">Hexindo: Exposure to Infrastructure Theme in Indonesia with No Debt</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1006" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1006">Henry Soediarko</a> zooms in on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2806" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2806:1">Hexindo Adiperkasa Tbk Pt (HEXA IJ)</a> a company that derives its revenue from sales and rental of heavy equipment, sales of spare parts, and repair and maintenance services. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/company-report-vgs-strongly-underpriced" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:19220">[Company Report] VGS - Strongly Underpriced</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/2192" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2192">Research at Rong Viet Securities</a> take a look at Vietnam Germany Steel Pipe was established as one of the leading steel companies in northern Vietnam under the brand name “Thep Viet Duc” for both construction steel and steel pipe products. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sat-increased-automation-to-expand-margin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:19240">SAT: Increased Automation to Expand Margin</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/756" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> takes a close look at auto-play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11778" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11778:1">Somboon Advance Technology P (SAT TB)</a> and comes away with a positive view. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/spcg-new-projects-in-japan-to-drive-growth" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:19256">SPCG: New Projects in Japan to Drive Growth</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/756" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/756" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> works his magic on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16657" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16657:1">Spcg Pcl (SPCG TB)</a>.In his insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ttw-not-only-tapping-the-thai-tap-water-market" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:19290">TTW: Not Only Tapping the Thai Tap Water Market</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/756" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> takes a close look at water player <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13100" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13100:1">TTW Pcl (TTW TB)</a> and comes away liking the stock. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ttw-largest-private-tap-water-producer-in-thailand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:19251">TTW: Largest Private Tap-Water Producer in Thailand</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/965" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965">Country Group</a> initiate on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13100" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13100:1">TTW Pcl (TTW TB)</a> with a BUY rating, with a target price of Bt16.4, which is derived from TTW's core business by DCF methodology (WACC 6.8% and Terminal growth 0%).  In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nbtc-on-telecom-license-controversy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:19260">NBTC on Telecom License Controversy</a>, our Thai guru comments on the controversy surrounding the latest bidding for licenses in Thailand.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-mandiri-a-future-by-design-on-the-ground-in-j-town" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:19181">Bank Mandiri - A Future by Design</a>, former Jakartan <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/937" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/441" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1">Bank Mandiri Persero Tbk Pt (BMRI IJ)</a> after a meeting in Jakarta with the new head of investor relations at the bank.  <h2>Sector and Thematic Insights</h2>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ipo-radar-cmc-new-condo-listing-literally" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:18996">IPO Radar: CMC, New Condo Listing...Literally</a>, our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/766" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> looks the IPO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26966" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26966:1">Chaoprayamahanakorn PCL (CMC TB)</a> and takes a constructive view. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indo-stocks-during-trade-war-what-to-do" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:19199">Indo Stocks During Trade War: What to Do?</a>, insight provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1006" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1006">Henry Soediarko</a> discusses which stocks may benefit from the US/China trade war with a high net worth individual in Indonesia. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-property-5-takeaways-from-recent-new-launches-the-tapestry-and-the-verandah-residences" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:19233">Singapore Property – 5 Takeaways from Recent New Launches: The Tapestry and The Verandah Residences</a>, property insight provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/2053" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2053">Royston Foo</a> puts forward his five key takeaways from two recent new launches in Singapore.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sector-capsule-mobile-internet-retailing-in-thailand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:19288">Sector Capsule: Mobile Internet Retailing in Thailand</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/483" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:483">Euromonitor International Ltd.</a> take a bird's eye view of this high growth space. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/transparency-trends-in-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:19331">Transparency Trends in Indonesia</a>, James Taylor, Head of Research at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/884" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:884">Jones Lang Lasalle</a> talks about improving transparency in Indonesia, which though improving, data-wise, is still very much dependent on private sector initiatives. in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sector-capsule-convenience-stores-in-thailand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:19325">Sector Capsule: Convenience Stores in Thailand</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/483" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:483">Euromonitor International Ltd.</a> provide a top-down update on convenience stores in Thailand.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/invest-safe-in-singapore" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:19217">Invest Safe in Singapore</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/884" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:884">Jones Lang Lasalle</a> assess Singapore's position globally from a property perspective. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-telcos-true-continues-to-gain-share" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:19334">Thai Telcos: TRUE Continues to Gain Share.</a>. our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/151" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:151">New Street Research</a> note the Thai market continues to show decent growth driven, they believe, by the rise of mobile video demand (they wrote about this in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/em-telcos-video-growth-drives-an-em-wireless-growth-inflection" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:14384">EM Telcos: Video Growth Drives an EM Wireless Growth Inflection.</a> Within the mobile market, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1">TRUE (TRUE TB)</a> continues to gain service revenue share at the expense of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/948" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1">DTAC (DTAC TB)</a> and to a lesser extent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/947" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1">AIS (ADVANC TB)</a>.

This week's offering across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up pieces. Please see below for a brief summary of this week's published insights. Please scroll to the detail section for a fuller account.Macro InsightsIn Silver Lining in the Trade War Playbook , our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA comments on the potential benefits for Thailand from the US versus China trade war. In Malaysian Elections: Prime Minister Najib’s to Lose, Manu Bhaskaran suggests that the election in Malaysia is Najib’s to lose. The new electoral boundaries which opposition parties are extremely helpful to the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition, will add several more seats to the BN’s haul and potentially allow it to have a huge majority in parliament even if it loses the popular vote. In Singapore: Further Strengthening in Domestic Economy, Manu Bhaskaran examines recent barometers for the Singapore economy which suggest a feed through from export strength to the domestic economy.In Thailand: Policy to Remain Accommodative in Light of Weak Spots, Manu Bhaskaran notes that the economic recovery In Thailand continues apace, even though a key policymaker, the Bank of Thailand (BOT), deems it to be uneven. In Asia Economic Trends - Inflation, economic insight provider Manu Bhaskaran points towards a recent uptick in inflation numbers in Indonesia and the Philippines putting pressure on policymakers. In Macroeconomics Report - Impact Of US Trade Policies: Warning Point For KORUS FTA’s Negotiations, our friends at Research at Rong Viet Securities comment on the implications for Vietnam from increased global tensions on trade. Equity Bottom-Up InsightsIn Elang Mahkota Teknologi: The Most Diversified Online Group Plus Local Unicorn Play, Johannes Salim, CFA comments on Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk (EMTK IJ) following a conference call with the company. In Hexindo: Exposure to Infrastructure Theme in Indonesia with No Debt, Henry Soediarko zooms in on Hexindo Adiperkasa Tbk Pt (HEXA IJ) a company that derives its revenue from sales and rental of heavy equipment, sales of spare parts, and repair and maintenance services. In [Company Report] VGS - Strongly Underpriced, our friends at Research at Rong Viet Securities take a look at Vietnam Germany Steel Pipe was established as one of the leading steel companies in northern Vietnam under the brand name “Thep Viet Duc” for both construction steel and steel pipe products. In SAT: Increased Automation to Expand Margin, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA takes a close look at auto-play Somboon Advance Technology P (SAT TB) and comes away with a positive view. In SPCG: New Projects in Japan to Drive Growth, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA works his magic on Spcg Pcl (SPCG TB).In his insight, TTW: Not Only Tapping the Thai Tap Water Market, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA takes a close look at water player TTW Pcl (TTW TB) and comes away liking the stock. In TTW: Largest Private Tap-Water Producer in Thailand, our friends at Country Group initiate on TTW Pcl (TTW TB) with a BUY rating, with a target price of Bt16.4, which is derived from TTW's core business by DCF methodology (WACC 6.8% and Terminal growth 0%).  In NBTC on Telecom License Controversy, our Thai guru comments on the controversy surrounding the latest bidding for licenses in Thailand.In Bank Mandiri - A Future by Design, former Jakartan Angus Mackintosh revisits Bank Mandiri Persero Tbk Pt (BMRI IJ) after a meeting in Jakarta with the new head of investor relations at the bank.  Sector and Thematic InsightsIn IPO Radar: CMC, New Condo Listing...Literally, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA looks the IPO of Chaoprayamahanakorn PCL (CMC TB) and takes a constructive view. In Indo Stocks During Trade War: What to Do?, insight provider Henry Soediarko discusses which stocks may benefit from the US/China trade war with a high net worth individual in Indonesia. In Singapore Property – 5 Takeaways from Recent New Launches: The Tapestry and The Verandah Residences, property insight provider Royston Foo puts forward his five key takeaways from two recent new launches in Singapore.In Sector Capsule: Mobile Internet Retailing in Thailand, our friends at Euromonitor International Ltd. take a bird's eye view of this high growth space. In Transparency Trends in Indonesia, James Taylor, Head of Research at Jones Lang Lasalle talks about improving transparency in Indonesia, which though improving, data-wise, is still very much dependent on private sector initiatives. in Sector Capsule: Convenience Stores in Thailand, our friends at Euromonitor International Ltd. provide a top-down update on convenience stores in Thailand.In Invest Safe in Singapore, our friends at Jones Lang Lasalle assess Singapore's position globally from a property perspective. In Thai Telcos: TRUE Continues to Gain Share.. our friends at New Street Research note the Thai market continues to show decent growth driven, they believe, by the rise of mobile video demand (they wrote about this in EM Telcos: Video Growth Drives an EM Wireless Growth Inflection. Within the mobile market, TRUE (TRUE TB) continues to gain service revenue share at the expense of DTAC (DTAC TB) and to a lesser extent AIS (ADVANC TB). 

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Trade Wars, Unicorns, and Heavy Equipment

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

Equity Capital Markets

Chaoprayamahanakorn PCL / Equity Capital Markets

Chao Phya Mahanakorn is one of the few, if not only, condo developer listing in Thailand this year that we know of at the moment. Though clearly a small developer with peak turnover of only Bt2.1bn in 2016, they are highly levered and aggressively launching projects in 2018...to the tune of Bt11bn. Based on our assumptions, we think this IPO is worth US$430m or Bt13.5/sh and may come with a generous yield of 4.4%.While property is not one of our favorite sector, we have to admit that the increased foreign participation has lately reduced oversupply risk in Thailand, and that some of the smaller developers, like Origin and Chewathai, have done an excellent job for themselves and their investors.

Chao Phya Mahanakorn is one of the few, if not only, condo developer listing in Thailand this year that we know of at the moment. Though clearly a small developer with peak turnover of only Bt2.1bn in 2016, they are highly levered and aggressively launching projects in 2018...to the tune of Bt11bn. Based on our assumptions, we think this IPO is worth US$430m or Bt13.5/sh and may come with a generous yield of 4.4%.While property is not one of our favorite sector, we have to admit that the increased foreign participation has lately reduced oversupply risk in Thailand, and that some of the smaller developers, like Origin and Chewathai, have done an excellent job for themselves and their investors.

IPO Radar: CMC, New Condo Listing...Literally

Thailand

Chaoprayamahanakorn Public Company Limited operates as a real estate development company. The Company develops residential, universities and institutes, department stores, shopping centers, health care, retail, and commercial buildings. Chaoprayamahanakorn serves customers in Thailand.

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Chaoprayamahanakorn PCL (CMC TB)

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Trade Wars, Unicorns, and Heavy Equipment

This week's offering across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across...

Angus Mackintosh

IPO Radar: CMC, New Condo Listing...Literally

Chao Phya Mahanakorn is one of the few, if not only, condo developer listing in Thailand this year that we know of at the moment. Though clearly a...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

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