Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as of our August 8, 2024 Int’l Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023</li>
<li>As discussed since late-July, we believe we're still within a 4- to 6-month pullback/consolidation from our selected July 17 starting point, until the market decides which was this consolidation resolves </li>
<li>TOPIX is below 2740-2820 resistance. Europe is testing resistance, though near potential breakouts on the EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and STOXX Europe 50. Watch for false breakouts</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as of our August 8, 2024 Int’l Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023
As discussed since late-July, we believe we're still within a 4- to 6-month pullback/consolidation from our selected July 17 starting point, until the market decides which was this consolidation resolves 
TOPIX is below 2740-2820 resistance. Europe is testing resistance, though near potential breakouts on the EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and STOXX Europe 50. Watch for false breakouts


Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE (Local Curr) Below Resistance

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Emkay Global Financial Services Limited

Emkay

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Emkay Global Financial Services Limited

Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. is a leader in the financial services sector, actively creating wealth for our clients for over two decades. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>GPUIL’s core thermal assets (1,650MW) are nearing optimal performance on coal tie-ups, PPAs to the tune of ~90% capacity, and improving debt metrics.</li><li>The company’s 180MW Bajoli Holi hydro-power asset has largely stabilized, while its ~7.5mn smart meter installation contract opens up a lucrative asset-light business opportunity with Bosch, for vertical integration &amp; unleashing its execution capabilities.</li><li>The management has a clear focus on deleveraging on the back of strong operating cash flows, supported by conversion of FCCBs into equity and handover of the Hyderabad-Vijayawada road project.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

GPUIL’s core thermal assets (1,650MW) are nearing optimal performance on coal tie-ups, PPAs to the tune of ~90% capacity, and improving debt metrics.The company’s 180MW Bajoli Holi hydro-power asset has largely stabilized, while its ~7.5mn smart meter installation contract opens up a lucrative asset-light business opportunity with Bosch, for vertical integration &amp; unleashing its execution capabilities.The management has a clear focus on deleveraging on the back of strong operating cash flows, supported by conversion of FCCBs into equity and handover of the Hyderabad-Vijayawada road project.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

GMR Power & Urban Infra - Power Play; Optionalities Galore

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan's TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe's EURO STOXX 50.</li>
<li>We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.</li>
<li>Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.</li>
</ul>


Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan's TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe's EURO STOXX 50.
We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.
Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.


Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Siemens: Siemens India Ltd (SIL) delivered robust Q1FY23 revenue/EBITDA/APAT of INR 36.5/5.5/4.4bn, beating our estimate by 0/32/43%</li><li>The EBITDA margin expanded both annually and sequentially by 482bps and 422bps resp</li><li>This expansion was on account of lower commodity inflation/better mix (+135bps YoY gross margin), improving supply chain and operating leverage advantage</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Siemens: Siemens India Ltd (SIL) delivered robust Q1FY23 revenue/EBITDA/APAT of INR 36.5/5.5/4.4bn, beating our estimate by 0/32/43%The EBITDA margin expanded both annually and sequentially by 482bps and 422bps respThis expansion was on account of lower commodity inflation/better mix (+135bps YoY gross margin), improving supply chain and operating leverage advantageContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Siemens, Eicher Motors, Bharat Forge, Torrent Power

<ul><li>The power industry is expected to report 28.5% YoY earnings growth, owing to the strong generation growth (+7.3% YoY in Q3FY23) and improved coal availability</li><li>Peak power demand increased by 10% YoY during Q3FY23 to ~193GW, driven by the festive season</li><li>Coal inventory at power plants too improved significantly, led by increased usage of imported coal as the number of stations facing subcritical inventory level declined to 43 in Dec 2022, vs 69 YoY and 54 QoQ</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The power industry is expected to report 28.5% YoY earnings growth, owing to the strong generation growth (+7.3% YoY in Q3FY23) and improved coal availabilityPeak power demand increased by 10% YoY during Q3FY23 to ~193GW, driven by the festive seasonCoal inventory at power plants too improved significantly, led by increased usage of imported coal as the number of stations facing subcritical inventory level declined to 43 in Dec 2022, vs 69 YoY and 54 QoQContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Power (3QFY23 Results Preview): Demand remains strong; coal inventory improves

India

CESC Limited generates and supplies electricity in and around Kolkata. The Company also provides consultancy services for setting up power plants and for erecting transformers and electrical equipment.

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CESC Ltd (CESC IN)

Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE (Local Curr) Below Resistance

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Vermilion Research

GMR Power & Urban Infra - Power Play; Optionalities Galore

GPUIL’s core thermal assets (1,650MW) are nearing optimal performance on coal tie-ups, PPAs to the tune of ~90% capacity, and improving debt metrics.

Emkay

Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

Expecting Downside Ahead $ACWI $SPX; Stick With Defensive Sectors; Downgrading Taiwan $EWT $TSM to Market Weight; Global Discretionary vs. Staples...

Vermilion Research

HSIE Results Daily: Siemens, Eicher Motors, Bharat Forge, Torrent Power

Siemens: Siemens India Ltd (SIL) delivered robust Q1FY23 revenue/EBITDA/APAT of INR 36.5/5.5/4.4bn, beating our estimate by 0/32/43%

HDFC Securities

Power (3QFY23 Results Preview): Demand remains strong; coal inventory improves

The power industry is expected to report 28.5% YoY earnings growth, owing to the strong generation growth (+7.3% YoY in Q3FY23) and improved coal...

HDFC Securities

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