Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>As the travel bubble between Thailand and China is on the card, the inflection point Thai equity market particularly for tourism and consumption-related stocks is imminent. This year, local buy sides and government (Thai Ministry of Finance) are the defenders of Thai equity markets as foreigners pulled back. </p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-all-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13889:1" rel="noopener">CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/home-product-center-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9906:1" rel="noopener">Home Product Center (HMPRO TB)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/central-pattana-pcl-0b7fb113-16e1-4535-be8b-02dce5bbcd92" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17188:1" rel="noopener">Central Pattana Pub (CPN TB)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airports-of-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:239:1" rel="noopener">Airports of Thailand (AOT TB)</a> are 5 stocks that will benefit from the travel bubble with sizeable market capitalization and sufficient liquidity. The majority of them trade at discount to the pre-COVID valuation with the exception of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airports-of-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:239:1" rel="noopener">Airports of Thailand (AOT TB)</a> who counts the Ministry of Finance as majority shareholders. </p>

As the travel bubble between Thailand and China is on the card, the inflection point Thai equity market particularly for tourism and consumption-related stocks is imminent. This year, local buy sides and government (Thai Ministry of Finance) are the defenders of Thai equity markets as foreigners pulled back. CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB) , Home Product Center (HMPRO TB) , Central Pattana Pub (CPN TB) , Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) and Airports of Thailand (AOT TB) are 5 stocks that will benefit from the travel bubble with sizeable market capitalization and sufficient liquidity. The majority of them trade at discount to the pre-COVID valuation with the exception of Airports of Thailand (AOT TB) who counts the Ministry of Finance as majority shareholders. 

Thailand: Top 5 Stocks that Investors Should Buy Now

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/scg-packaging-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28684:1" rel="noopener">SCG Packaging (SCGP TB)</a> raise around US$1.2bn in its Thailand IPO. It is a part of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-cement-pcl-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2589:1" rel="noopener">Siam Cement (SCC TB)</a> group.</p></div><div><p>SCGP is a packaging solutions provider in ASEAN offering fiber-based packaging, performance and polymer packaging, food service products, design, printing and other solutions. SCGP is the largest packaging paper and corrugated containers producer in ASEAN, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan. </p></div><div>I have covered various aspects of the deal in my earlier notes:</div><div><ul>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/scg-packaging-pre-ipo-shift-to-packaging-has-been-aiding-margins-but-acquisition-drove-up-leverage" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SCG Packaging Pre-IPO - Shift to packaging has been aiding margins but acquisitions have driven up leverage</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/scg-packaging-ipo-unexciting" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SCG Packaging IPO - Unexciting</a></li>
</ul></div><p>In this note, I'll talk about the deal updates and provide implied valuations at different share price levels.</p>

SCG Packaging (SCGP TB) raise around US$1.2bn in its Thailand IPO. It is a part of the Siam Cement (SCC TB) group.SCGP is a packaging solutions provider in ASEAN offering fiber-based packaging, performance and polymer packaging, food service products, design, printing and other solutions. SCGP is the largest packaging paper and corrugated containers producer in ASEAN, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan. I have covered various aspects of the deal in my earlier notes:
SCG Packaging Pre-IPO - Shift to packaging has been aiding margins but acquisitions have driven up leverage
SCG Packaging IPO - Unexciting
In this note, I'll talk about the deal updates and provide implied valuations at different share price levels.

SCG Packaging IPO Trading - Placed with Domestics

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>We identified five interesting news/developments that could influence Thai equities:</p><ul>
<li>
<strong>Protests reach breaking point. </strong>The protest starts to show econmic impact, as protestors start to block malls in addition to public places (Palaces, government offices).</li>
<li>
<strong>Thai Banks: Too little, too late?</strong><em>MCorp Review</em> observed several banks becoming very proactive. KBANK delivered the country's first bank perpetual bonds, while BAY invites behemoth BlackRock into the Kingdom, but if Brett King has anything to say, it's probably too late for the sector.</li>
<li>
<strong>Intuch looks into Point Exchange.</strong> Intuch's venture capital arm Invent invests an undisclosed sum into ChomChob, an innovative platform that allows cashing and exchange of loyalty points.</li>
<li>
<strong>iPhone 12's uphill battle.</strong> Apple's long-awaited 5G iPhone finally arrives. Though Thailand is undergoing an economic recession, the tax subsidy on consumption may help sales.</li>
<li>
<strong>Ngern Tid Lor's upcoming IPO </strong>in 2021 has sparked some interest as one of Thailand's large non-bank lenders. A sizable IPO with links to names such as BAY and private equity firm CVC.</li>
</ul>

We identified five interesting news/developments that could influence Thai equities:

Protests reach breaking point. The protest starts to show econmic impact, as protestors start to block malls in addition to public places (Palaces, government offices).

Thai Banks: Too little, too late?MCorp Review observed several banks becoming very proactive. KBANK delivered the country's first bank perpetual bonds, while BAY invites behemoth BlackRock into the Kingdom, but if Brett King has anything to say, it's probably too late for the sector.

Intuch looks into Point Exchange. Intuch's venture capital arm Invent invests an undisclosed sum into ChomChob, an innovative platform that allows cashing and exchange of loyalty points.

iPhone 12's uphill battle. Apple's long-awaited 5G iPhone finally arrives. Though Thailand is undergoing an economic recession, the tax subsidy on consumption may help sales.

Ngern Tid Lor's upcoming IPO in 2021 has sparked some interest as one of Thailand's large non-bank lenders. A sizable IPO with links to names such as BAY and private equity firm CVC.


Snippets #46: Thailand in Turmoil, Intuch Points Exchange

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>The week that was in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a> is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.</p>
<p>We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  </p>
</div>
<h3>Equity Bottom-Up Insights</h3>
<p>In Indonesia<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-mandiri-persero-bmri-ij-a-plethora-of-good-news" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) - A Plethora of Good News</a>,  Cross-ASEAN insight provider<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> reports back a call with<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a> revealed a relatively positive message on a number of fronts, which came as a rare positive surprise. </p>
<p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-mandiri-persero-bmri-ij-the-unsung-hero-of-syariah" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) - The Unsung Hero of Syariah?</a> , Cross-ASEAN Insight provider<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> sees potential positive catalysts in the merger of three State-owned Syariah banks. He believes that Mandiri Syariah,  given it has the largest Syariah business and generating an ROE in excess of 15%, will take the lead in the merged entity. </p>
<p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/metrodata-electronic-mtdl-ij-a-rare-value-play-on-indonesia-s-digitalization" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Metrodata Electronic (MTDL IJ) - A Rare Value Play on Indonesia's Digitalization</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> highlights why<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metrodata-electronic-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Metrodata Electronic (MTDL IJ)</a> looks undervalued, as it benefits not only from offline companies continuing to digitalize processes and infrastructure but also from the rise in e-commerce, digital payments, fintech, and gaming. </p>
<p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/xl-axiata-excl-ij-enabling-and-converging-in-indonesia" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) - Enabling and Converging in Indonesia</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> XL Axiata (EXCL IJ),</a> one of the key enablers of the Indonesian digital economy, with around 90% of revenues coming from data and 75% of its subscriber base on 4G. Smartkarma hosted a Webinar with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1" rel="noopener">XL Axiata (EXCL IJ)</a> last week, which revealed a positive long-term picture, despite some near term competitive headwinds. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sunpower-read-across-from-buyout-of-zheneng-jinjiang-fair-value-remains-at-1-sgd-63-upside" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44133" rel="noopener">Sunpower: Read Across from Buyout of Zheneng JinJiang; Fair Value Remains at 1 SGD (63% Upside),</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/nicolas-van-broekhoven-24a66c2d-bca4-4f5b-adda-c4e2bcc509f4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1208" rel="noopener">Nicolas Van Broekhoven</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunpower-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18395:1" rel="noopener">Sunpower Group (SPWG SP)</a> post a Smartakarma webinar with the company. </p>
<p>In Thailand<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ipo-radar-nforce-secure-new-player-in-thai-cyber-security" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> IPO Radar: NForce Secure, New Player in Thai Cyber Security</a>, Thai Specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> takes a look at NForce Secure, New Player in Thai Cyber Security.  </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/wilmar-is-a-buy-after-yka-s-listing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44228" rel="noopener">Wilmar Is A Buy After YKA’s Listing,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/david-blennerhassett" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:840" rel="noopener">David Blennerhassett</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wilmar-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:172:1" rel="noopener">Wilmar International (WIL SP)</a> following the successful listing of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yihai-kerry-arawana-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29184:1" rel="noopener">Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (YKA CH).</a></p>
<p>In Singapore<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sgx-sgx-sp-market-under-rates-its-growth-potential" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> SGX (SGX SP): Market Under-Rates Its Growth Potential</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/victor-galliano" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Victor Galliano</a> discusses why he feels<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-exchange-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> SGX (SGX SP)</a> is undervalued. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/business-dna-suksan-yasasin-of-chayo-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44242" rel="noopener">Business DNA: Suksan Yasasin of Chayo Group,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> conducts an interview with Suksan Yasasin, the CEO of Chayo Group. Business DNA is a chance to dig into the essential makeup of business leaders and their organizations. The focus is not on the short term but rather on understanding the driving forces of a business. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ori-expect-flat-3q20-earnings-but-strong-recovery-in-4q20" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44163" rel="noopener">ORI: Expect Flat 3Q20 Earnings but Strong Recovery in 4Q20,</a> our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> revisit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-property-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26762:1" rel="noopener">Origin Property (ORI TB)</a> ahead of the company's earnings. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/com7-upgrade-super-cycle-for-iphone-users" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44208" rel="noopener">COM7: Upgrade Super Cycle for iPhone Users,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> revisits this electronics distributor in light of the announcement of the launch of the new iPhone 12. </p>
<h3>Sector and Thematic Insights</h3>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/snippets-45-lobster-alliance-cp-all-goes-to-laos" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42866" rel="noopener">Snippets #45: Lobster Alliance, CP All Goes to Laos,</a> our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766" rel="noopener">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> highlights five developments over the past week that may impact Thai equities.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sti-index-rebalance-kdcreit-included-flt-misses-out" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44178" rel="noopener">STI Index Rebalance: KDCREIT Included, FLT Misses Out,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> comments on the recent FTSE STI Index rebalance.  </p>
<p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/msci-nov20-index-rebalance-preview-asean-em-edition" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> MSCI Nov20 Index Rebalance Preview - ASEAN EM Edition</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Brian Freitas</a> looks at the upcoming MSCI ASEAN EM scheduled rebalancing. </p>
<h3>Credit Insights</h3>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kasikornbank-s-inaugural-at1-underweight-on-franchise-challenges-and-valuation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44176" rel="noopener">Kasikornbank’s Inaugural AT1 – Underweight on Franchise Challenges and Valuation,</a> credit specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/hank-calenti-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:5194" rel="noopener">Hank Calenti, CFA</a> comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kasikornbank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:293:1" rel="noopener">Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)</a>'s inaugural AT1 bond. He suggests to Underweight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kasikornbank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:293:1" rel="noopener">Kasikornbank's (KBANK)</a> inaugural Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bond on franchise challenges and valuation. </p>


The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.
We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  

Equity Bottom-Up Insights
In Indonesia Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) - A Plethora of Good News,  Cross-ASEAN insight provider Angus Mackintosh reports back a call with Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) revealed a relatively positive message on a number of fronts, which came as a rare positive surprise. 
In Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) - The Unsung Hero of Syariah? , Cross-ASEAN Insight provider Angus Mackintosh sees potential positive catalysts in the merger of three State-owned Syariah banks. He believes that Mandiri Syariah,  given it has the largest Syariah business and generating an ROE in excess of 15%, will take the lead in the merged entity. 
In Metrodata Electronic (MTDL IJ) - A Rare Value Play on Indonesia's Digitalization, Angus Mackintosh highlights why Metrodata Electronic (MTDL IJ) looks undervalued, as it benefits not only from offline companies continuing to digitalize processes and infrastructure but also from the rise in e-commerce, digital payments, fintech, and gaming. 
In XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) - Enabling and Converging in Indonesia, Angus Mackintosh revisits XL Axiata (EXCL IJ), one of the key enablers of the Indonesian digital economy, with around 90% of revenues coming from data and 75% of its subscriber base on 4G. Smartkarma hosted a Webinar with XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) last week, which revealed a positive long-term picture, despite some near term competitive headwinds. 
In Sunpower: Read Across from Buyout of Zheneng JinJiang; Fair Value Remains at 1 SGD (63% Upside), CrossASEAN Insight Provider provider Nicolas Van Broekhoven revisits Sunpower Group (SPWG SP) post a Smartakarma webinar with the company. 
In Thailand IPO Radar: NForce Secure, New Player in Thai Cyber Security, Thai Specialist Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA takes a look at NForce Secure, New Player in Thai Cyber Security.  
In Wilmar Is A Buy After YKA’s Listing,David Blennerhassett revisits Wilmar International (WIL SP) following the successful listing of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (YKA CH).
In Singapore SGX (SGX SP): Market Under-Rates Its Growth Potential, Victor Galliano discusses why he feels SGX (SGX SP) is undervalued. 
In Business DNA: Suksan Yasasin of Chayo Group,Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA conducts an interview with Suksan Yasasin, the CEO of Chayo Group. Business DNA is a chance to dig into the essential makeup of business leaders and their organizations. The focus is not on the short term but rather on understanding the driving forces of a business. 
In ORI: Expect Flat 3Q20 Earnings but Strong Recovery in 4Q20, our friends at Country Group revisit Origin Property (ORI TB) ahead of the company's earnings. 
In COM7: Upgrade Super Cycle for iPhone Users, Country Group revisits this electronics distributor in light of the announcement of the launch of the new iPhone 12. 
Sector and Thematic Insights
In Snippets #45: Lobster Alliance, CP All Goes to Laos, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA highlights five developments over the past week that may impact Thai equities.
In STI Index Rebalance: KDCREIT Included, FLT Misses Out, Brian Freitas comments on the recent FTSE STI Index rebalance.  
In MSCI Nov20 Index Rebalance Preview - ASEAN EM Edition, Brian Freitas looks at the upcoming MSCI ASEAN EM scheduled rebalancing. 
Credit Insights
In Kasikornbank’s Inaugural AT1 – Underweight on Franchise Challenges and Valuation, credit specialist Hank Calenti, CFA comments on Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)'s inaugural AT1 bond. He suggests to Underweight Kasikornbank's (KBANK) inaugural Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bond on franchise challenges and valuation. 

The NEW Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Syariah Banking, XL Axiata, and Telkom's Tower Spinoff

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>The week that was in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a> is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.</p>
<p>We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  </p>
</div><h3>Macro Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vietnam-in-robust-health-despite-transient-threat-of-us-s301-action" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43795" rel="noopener">Vietnam in Robust Health Despite Transient Threat of US S301 Action,</a> CrossASEAN Chief Economist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/prasenjit-k-basu" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:612" rel="noopener">Prasenjit K. Basu</a> zeros IN on the Vietnamese economy, which has been a key beneficiary of trade diversion from China. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asian-exports-covid-best-is-behind" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44020" rel="noopener">Asian Exports &amp; COVID - Best Is Behind,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sharmila-whelan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1728" rel="noopener">Sharmila Whelan</a> looks at the prospects for Asian Exports and sees a less attractive outlook ahead. </p><h3>Equity Bottom-Up Insights</h3><p>In Indonesia,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/media-nusantara-citra-mncn-ij-no-credit-given-for-metamorphosis" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ) - No Credit Given for Metamorphosis</a>, CrossASEAN insight provider<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> examines an aggressive sell-off in<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/media-nusantara-citra-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ)</a> share price, despite announcing a reasonable set of 2Q2020 results, with especially strong growth coming from its digital advertising through RCTI+ and its YouTube Multichannel Network (MCN), which now has a staggering 101m subscribers.  </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indomobil-sukses-internasional-imas-ij-emerging-transport-monolith" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43927" rel="noopener">Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ) Emerging Transport Monolith?,</a> CrossASEAN insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indomobil-sukses-internasional-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11738:1" rel="noopener">Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ),</a> which is making meaningful progress towards being a leader in automotive and transport.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-mestika-dharma-september-quarter-reversals-surge" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44089" rel="noopener">Bank Mestika Dharma – September Quarter Reversals Surge,</a> banking specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/daniel-tabbush" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12" rel="noopener">Daniel Tabbush</a> zeros in on this small Indonesian lender, which is one of the first to report earnings and reported an improvement and reversal of credit costs. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ammb-top-decile-ph-score-and-vfm-asset" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44065" rel="noopener">AMMB: Top Decile PH Score™ and VFM Asset,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/paul-hollingworth" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2554" rel="noopener">Paul Hollingworth</a> zeros in on this Malaysia lender were he find a promising outlook and attractive valuations under his model.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ammb-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:137:1" rel="noopener"></a>In Singapore,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/trade-ideas-for-singapore-reits-implications-from-cct-cmt-merger" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Trade Ideas for Singapore REITs - Implications from CCT+CMT Merger</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sumeet-singh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Sumeet Singh</a> takes a look at the long drawn out merger of CCT+CMT finally approved with minimal resistance, with the little there was coming mostly from CCT holders, the combined entity will add to the bunch of listed REITs which offer a mix of office and retail exposure. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mr-diy-ipo-store-expansion-still-going-strong-undemanding-valuation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43929" rel="noopener">MR DIY IPO - Store Expansion Still Going Strong, Undemanding Valuation,</a> IPO specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/zhen-zhou-toh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:673" rel="noopener">Zhen Zhou, Toh</a> revisits this IPO looking at its growth prospects and valuation. </p><p>In Malaysia,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mr-d-i-y-group-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Mr. D.I.Y. Group IPO: Valuation Insights</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/arun-george" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Arun George</a> provides a view on why he believes that an attractive valuation and solid cornerstone support makes <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mr-d-i-y-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28430:1" rel="noopener">MR D.I.Y. Group (MRDIY MK)</a> IPO tempting at the proposed price. </p><p>In Malaysia,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mr-diy-ipo-quality-homes" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> MR DIY IPO: Quality Homes</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/shifara-samsudeen-acma-cgma" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Shifara Samsudeen</a> takes an initial look at Malaysia's home improvement retailer Mr. D.I.Y.  which has filed for an IPO which will raise approximately RM1.5bn (US$362m), the largest listing in three years in Malaysia. The company has set the price at RM1.60 per share and is expected to list the IPO on the 14th of October.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mr-diy-ipo-inexpensive-valuation-compared-to-peers-despite-better-growth-profile" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44019" rel="noopener">MR DIY IPO: Inexpensive Valuation Compared to Peers Despite Better Growth Profile,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/shifara-samsudeen-acma-cgma" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3297" rel="noopener">Shifara Samsudeen,</a> provides us with her views on this upcoming Malaysian IPO. </p><p>In Thailand,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kerry-express-best-inc-two-approaches-to-ecommerce-logistics-growth-in-se-asia" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Kerry Express &amp; Best Inc: Two Approaches to ECommerce Logistics Growth in SE Asia</a> examines the different approaches pursued in eCommerce fulfillment in SE Asia by the upcoming IPO<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-express-thailand" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB)</a> and by<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/best-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> BEST Inc (BEST US). </a></p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bgrim-positive-sentiments-from-joining-hands-with-pea-encom" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43897" rel="noopener">BGRIM: Positive Sentiments from Joining Hands with PEA ENCOM,</a> our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> expect the cooperation with PEA ENCOM will help <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/b-grimm-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23996:1" rel="noopener">B Grimm Power (BGRIM TB)</a> to expand the SPP (Small Power Producer) client base and have synergy benefits of up to THB1.0bn from cost-saving and service efficiency. </p><h3>Sector and Thematic</h3><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indonesia-banks-positives-clouded-but-persist" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Indonesia Banks – Positives Clouded, But Persist</a>, banking specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/daniel-tabbush" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Daniel Tabbush</a> discusses why the country's credit penetration remains low and margins remain higher than almost any other country. Due to the ill-conceived interruption of economies and a more conservative bank system due to the financial crisis in 1997, credit growth is now lower in Indonesia than in most other Asian-Pacific countries. </p><p>In Thailand,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/silicon-stories-m-if-you-can-t-beat-them-join-them" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Silicon Stories M: If You Can't Beat Them, Join Them</a>, Thai specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> takes a look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-ayudhya-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:136:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Ayudhya (BAY TB)</a>,  which has realized that it is easier to partner with Internet startups than build businesses from scratch. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sti-index-rebalance-in-the-race-to-replace-cct-finally-some-daylight-emerges" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43862" rel="noopener">STI Index Rebalance: In the Race to Replace CCT, Finally Some Daylight Emerges,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> looks at the upcoming Singapore STI Index rebalancing. </p><h3>Credit Insights</h3><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-bank-capital-constraints-debt-capital-issuance-needs-and-potential-impacts" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Thai Bank Capital Constraints, Debt Capital Issuance Needs, and Potential Impact,</a> Credit Specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/hank-calenti-cfa" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Hank Calenti, CFA</a> discusses the potential for further capital issuance by Thai banks following<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-bank-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB)</a>'s recent bond issue. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-bank-capital-and-chronic-covid-19-sensitivity" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44011" rel="noopener">Thai Bank Capital and Chronic COVID-19 Sensitivity,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/hank-calenti-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:5194" rel="noopener">Hank Calenti, CFA</a> dives into the potential scenarios for Thai Banks should COVID-19 loan relief decay become chronic. </p><p>In Indonesia,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-plight-of-the-garuda" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> The Plight of the Garuda</a>, Credit Specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/derek-silva" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Derek Silva</a>,  examines Garuda's financial condition, which is now becoming critical. </p>


The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.
We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  
Macro InsightsIn Vietnam in Robust Health Despite Transient Threat of US S301 Action, CrossASEAN Chief Economist Prasenjit K. Basu zeros IN on the Vietnamese economy, which has been a key beneficiary of trade diversion from China. In Asian Exports &amp; COVID - Best Is Behind,Sharmila Whelan looks at the prospects for Asian Exports and sees a less attractive outlook ahead. Equity Bottom-Up InsightsIn Indonesia, Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ) - No Credit Given for Metamorphosis, CrossASEAN insight provider Angus Mackintosh examines an aggressive sell-off in Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ) share price, despite announcing a reasonable set of 2Q2020 results, with especially strong growth coming from its digital advertising through RCTI+ and its YouTube Multichannel Network (MCN), which now has a staggering 101m subscribers.  In Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ) Emerging Transport Monolith?, CrossASEAN insight Provider Angus Mackintosh revisits Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ), which is making meaningful progress towards being a leader in automotive and transport.In Bank Mestika Dharma – September Quarter Reversals Surge, banking specialist Daniel Tabbush zeros in on this small Indonesian lender, which is one of the first to report earnings and reported an improvement and reversal of credit costs. In AMMB: Top Decile PH Score™ and VFM Asset,Paul Hollingworth zeros in on this Malaysia lender were he find a promising outlook and attractive valuations under his model.In Singapore, Trade Ideas for Singapore REITs - Implications from CCT+CMT Merger, Sumeet Singh takes a look at the long drawn out merger of CCT+CMT finally approved with minimal resistance, with the little there was coming mostly from CCT holders, the combined entity will add to the bunch of listed REITs which offer a mix of office and retail exposure. In MR DIY IPO - Store Expansion Still Going Strong, Undemanding Valuation, IPO specialist Zhen Zhou, Toh revisits this IPO looking at its growth prospects and valuation. In Malaysia, Mr. D.I.Y. Group IPO: Valuation Insights, Arun George provides a view on why he believes that an attractive valuation and solid cornerstone support makes MR D.I.Y. Group (MRDIY MK) IPO tempting at the proposed price. In Malaysia, MR DIY IPO: Quality Homes, Shifara Samsudeen takes an initial look at Malaysia's home improvement retailer Mr. D.I.Y.  which has filed for an IPO which will raise approximately RM1.5bn (US$362m), the largest listing in three years in Malaysia. The company has set the price at RM1.60 per share and is expected to list the IPO on the 14th of October.In MR DIY IPO: Inexpensive Valuation Compared to Peers Despite Better Growth Profile,Shifara Samsudeen, provides us with her views on this upcoming Malaysian IPO. In Thailand, Kerry Express &amp; Best Inc: Two Approaches to ECommerce Logistics Growth in SE Asia examines the different approaches pursued in eCommerce fulfillment in SE Asia by the upcoming IPO Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB) and by BEST Inc (BEST US). In BGRIM: Positive Sentiments from Joining Hands with PEA ENCOM, our friends at Country Group expect the cooperation with PEA ENCOM will help B Grimm Power (BGRIM TB) to expand the SPP (Small Power Producer) client base and have synergy benefits of up to THB1.0bn from cost-saving and service efficiency. Sector and ThematicIn Indonesia Banks – Positives Clouded, But Persist, banking specialist Daniel Tabbush discusses why the country's credit penetration remains low and margins remain higher than almost any other country. Due to the ill-conceived interruption of economies and a more conservative bank system due to the financial crisis in 1997, credit growth is now lower in Indonesia than in most other Asian-Pacific countries. In Thailand, Silicon Stories M: If You Can't Beat Them, Join Them, Thai specialist Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA takes a look at Bank Of Ayudhya (BAY TB),  which has realized that it is easier to partner with Internet startups than build businesses from scratch. In STI Index Rebalance: In the Race to Replace CCT, Finally Some Daylight Emerges,Brian Freitas looks at the upcoming Singapore STI Index rebalancing. Credit InsightsIn Thai Bank Capital Constraints, Debt Capital Issuance Needs, and Potential Impact, Credit Specialist Hank Calenti, CFA discusses the potential for further capital issuance by Thai banks following Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB)'s recent bond issue. In Thai Bank Capital and Chronic COVID-19 Sensitivity,Hank Calenti, CFA dives into the potential scenarios for Thai Banks should COVID-19 loan relief decay become chronic. In Indonesia, The Plight of the Garuda, Credit Specialist Derek Silva,  examines Garuda's financial condition, which is now becoming critical. 

The NEW Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Omnibus Laws, Credit Costs, and Mr DIY

Thailand

Central Retail Corp Ltd operates general merchandise stores. The Company offers electronics, sports, stationery, home improvement, and office products. Central Retail serves customers in Thailand.

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Central Retail Corp Ltd (CRC TB)

Thailand: Top 5 Stocks that Investors Should Buy Now

As the travel bubble between Thailand and China is on the card, the inflection point Thai equity market particularly for tourism and consumption...

Henry Soediarko

SCG Packaging IPO Trading - Placed with Domestics

SCG Packaging (SCGP TB) raised around US$1.2bn in its Thailand IPO. Given its lack of growth in the past, we remain less than excited, to put it...

Sumeet Singh

Snippets #46: Thailand in Turmoil, Intuch Points Exchange

The iPhone 12 finally arrives even as Thailand faces a historic protest. Meanwhile, Intuch finds a compelling points exchange startup, and Thai...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

The NEW Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Syariah Banking, XL Axiata, and Telkom's Tower Spinoff

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East...

Angus Mackintosh

The NEW Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Omnibus Laws, Credit Costs, and Mr DIY

The NEW Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma includes a curation of the past week's insights across SE Asia together with value-added commentary on...

Angus Mackintosh

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