Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We have a negative view on the lower-than-expected 1 Q2 5 E RevPAR, particularly from the hotels in Pattaya due to a decline in Chinese tourists.</li><li>This is compounded by a YoY drop in advance bookings for the Songkran festival in Bangkok and a slowing economy putting pressure on F&amp;B revenue.</li><li>As a result, we have revised down our 2025-26E core profit and the core EPS growth outlook over the next three years is projected to increase by 4% per year (previously +12%).</li></ul>

We have a negative view on the lower-than-expected 1 Q2 5 E RevPAR, particularly from the hotels in Pattaya due to a decline in Chinese tourists.This is compounded by a YoY drop in advance bookings for the Songkran festival in Bangkok and a slowing economy putting pressure on F&amp;B revenue.As a result, we have revised down our 2025-26E core profit and the core EPS growth outlook over the next three years is projected to increase by 4% per year (previously +12%).

Central Plaza Hotel - Clear Signs of Weak Tourist Demand, Particularly in Pattaya

<ul><li>We maintain an Outperform rating and raise the fair value to Bt39.00, based on a required return of 4.0% (previously Bt38.75 based on a required return of 3.5%), following an upward revision to the core profit estimates, driven by a stronger outlook.</li><li>This is mainly supported by the Shinkansen segment within the F&amp;B business, which experienced significant growth in 2024 and is expected to continue expanding in 2025-26E.</li><li>As a result, the two- year CAGR has been revised up to +12% (previously +7%), outpacing the industry.</li></ul>

We maintain an Outperform rating and raise the fair value to Bt39.00, based on a required return of 4.0% (previously Bt38.75 based on a required return of 3.5%), following an upward revision to the core profit estimates, driven by a stronger outlook.This is mainly supported by the Shinkansen segment within the F&amp;B business, which experienced significant growth in 2024 and is expected to continue expanding in 2025-26E.As a result, the two- year CAGR has been revised up to +12% (previously +7%), outpacing the industry.

Central Plaza Hotel - Revised Earnings Upward Due to an Improved Outlook

<ul><li>We maintain our Outperform rating with a fair value of Bt38.75, based on a required return of 3.5%.</li><li>We remain positive on the stock’s fundamentals, given the significant market price upside potential of +37%. At the same time, the tactical downside risk remains very limited.</li><li>Long-term growth for 2025-27E is projected at a +7% CAGR, lower than the industry average.</li></ul>

We maintain our Outperform rating with a fair value of Bt38.75, based on a required return of 3.5%.We remain positive on the stock’s fundamentals, given the significant market price upside potential of +37%. At the same time, the tactical downside risk remains very limited.Long-term growth for 2025-27E is projected at a +7% CAGR, lower than the industry average.

Central Plaza Hotel - Upbeat 4Q24 Earnings Thanks to JV Japanese Restaurants

<ul><li>The 4Q24E core profit is expected to have exceeded our previous forecast due to lower pre-opening expenses, reflecting the slower- than-expected situation in the Maldives.</li><li>In addition, the 1Q25E performance is projected to maintain strong growth, driven particularly by hotels in Thailand and Japan.</li><li>Although we have revised up our profit estimates, the long-term growth outlook has been downgraded to Average (previously Steady), based on a 2024-26E core EPS CAGR of +10% (down from +16% previously). </li></ul>

The 4Q24E core profit is expected to have exceeded our previous forecast due to lower pre-opening expenses, reflecting the slower- than-expected situation in the Maldives.In addition, the 1Q25E performance is projected to maintain strong growth, driven particularly by hotels in Thailand and Japan.Although we have revised up our profit estimates, the long-term growth outlook has been downgraded to Average (previously Steady), based on a 2024-26E core EPS CAGR of +10% (down from +16% previously). 

Central Plaza Hotel - Upbeat 4Q24E CP Due to Reduced Pre-Opening Expenses

<ul><li>Our Outperform rating is maintained, with an increasingly positive view on the fundamentals due to a 15% QTD decline in the stock price, providing upside of 11% to the new fair value of Bt38.75, based on a required return of 3.0% (previously Bt35.75 with a required return of 2.6%).</li><li>A neutral view is maintained on the long-term performance, with 2024-26E EPS CAGR growth of +16%, close to the industry average.</li><li>The tactical downside risk is very limited, given the stock price decline, which likely reflects the expected YoY and QoQ decreases in 4Q24E profit due to pre-opening expenses for the new hotel in the Maldives.</li></ul>

Our Outperform rating is maintained, with an increasingly positive view on the fundamentals due to a 15% QTD decline in the stock price, providing upside of 11% to the new fair value of Bt38.75, based on a required return of 3.0% (previously Bt35.75 with a required return of 2.6%).A neutral view is maintained on the long-term performance, with 2024-26E EPS CAGR growth of +16%, close to the industry average.The tactical downside risk is very limited, given the stock price decline, which likely reflects the expected YoY and QoQ decreases in 4Q24E profit due to pre-opening expenses for the new hotel in the Maldives.

Central Plaza Hotel -Raised Earnings Forecasts to Reflect Upbeat GPM

Thailand

Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited owns and manages hotels and quick service restaurants. The Company operates its hotels under the banner of Centara Hotels & Resorts and franchises western and Japanese quick service restaurants.

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Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL TB)

Central Plaza Hotel - Clear Signs of Weak Tourist Demand, Particularly in Pattaya

We have a negative view on the lower-than-expected 1 Q2 5 E RevPAR, particularly from the hotels in Pattaya due to a decline in Chinese tourists.

Krungthai XSpring

Central Plaza Hotel - Revised Earnings Upward Due to an Improved Outlook

We maintain an Outperform rating and raise the fair value to Bt39.00, based on a required return of 4.0% (previously Bt38.75 based on a required...

Krungthai XSpring

Central Plaza Hotel - Upbeat 4Q24 Earnings Thanks to JV Japanese Restaurants

We remain positive on the stock’s fundamentals, given the significant market price upside potential of +37%. At the same time, the tactical...

Krungthai XSpring

Central Plaza Hotel - Upbeat 4Q24E CP Due to Reduced Pre-Opening Expenses

The 4Q24E core profit is expected to have exceeded our previous forecast due to lower pre-opening expenses, reflecting the slower- than-expected...

Krungthai XSpring

Central Plaza Hotel -Raised Earnings Forecasts to Reflect Upbeat GPM

A neutral view is maintained on the long-term performance, with 2024-26E EPS CAGR growth of +16%, close to the industry average.

Krungthai XSpring

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