Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The 4Q24E core profit is expected to have exceeded our previous forecast due to lower pre-opening expenses, reflecting the slower- than-expected situation in the Maldives.</li><li>In addition, the 1Q25E performance is projected to maintain strong growth, driven particularly by hotels in Thailand and Japan.</li><li>Although we have revised up our profit estimates, the long-term growth outlook has been downgraded to Average (previously Steady), based on a 2024-26E core EPS CAGR of +10% (down from +16% previously). </li></ul>

The 4Q24E core profit is expected to have exceeded our previous forecast due to lower pre-opening expenses, reflecting the slower- than-expected situation in the Maldives.In addition, the 1Q25E performance is projected to maintain strong growth, driven particularly by hotels in Thailand and Japan.Although we have revised up our profit estimates, the long-term growth outlook has been downgraded to Average (previously Steady), based on a 2024-26E core EPS CAGR of +10% (down from +16% previously). 

Central Plaza Hotel - Upbeat 4Q24E CP Due to Reduced Pre-Opening Expenses

<ul><li>Our Outperform rating is maintained, with an increasingly positive view on the fundamentals due to a 15% QTD decline in the stock price, providing upside of 11% to the new fair value of Bt38.75, based on a required return of 3.0% (previously Bt35.75 with a required return of 2.6%).</li><li>A neutral view is maintained on the long-term performance, with 2024-26E EPS CAGR growth of +16%, close to the industry average.</li><li>The tactical downside risk is very limited, given the stock price decline, which likely reflects the expected YoY and QoQ decreases in 4Q24E profit due to pre-opening expenses for the new hotel in the Maldives.</li></ul>

Our Outperform rating is maintained, with an increasingly positive view on the fundamentals due to a 15% QTD decline in the stock price, providing upside of 11% to the new fair value of Bt38.75, based on a required return of 3.0% (previously Bt35.75 with a required return of 2.6%).A neutral view is maintained on the long-term performance, with 2024-26E EPS CAGR growth of +16%, close to the industry average.The tactical downside risk is very limited, given the stock price decline, which likely reflects the expected YoY and QoQ decreases in 4Q24E profit due to pre-opening expenses for the new hotel in the Maldives.

Central Plaza Hotel -Raised Earnings Forecasts to Reflect Upbeat GPM

<ul><li>We maintain an Outperform rating but have revised down our 12M FV to Bt35.75 (from Bt40.50 previously) due to a downward revision of our 2024 earnings forecast and an increase in the required return to 2.6% (from 2.0% previously).</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that the share price has become less attractive, with narrower upside of +9%.</li><li>However, the long- term growth prospects remain strong, with an expected CAGR of +14%, while the tactical downside risk is very limited.</li></ul>

We maintain an Outperform rating but have revised down our 12M FV to Bt35.75 (from Bt40.50 previously) due to a downward revision of our 2024 earnings forecast and an increase in the required return to 2.6% (from 2.0% previously).The valuation metrics suggest that the share price has become less attractive, with narrower upside of +9%.However, the long- term growth prospects remain strong, with an expected CAGR of +14%, while the tactical downside risk is very limited.

Central Plaza Hotel - Lowered Earnings Forecast to Reflect Higher-Than- Expected Expenses

<ul><li>We initiate our coverage on CENTEL with an Outperform rating and a 12M fair value of Bt45.75, based on a required rate of return of 2.0%.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that the share price is attractive, and the core EPS growth is expected to grow well in 2024-26E at a 11% CAGR due to the improvement in the hotel business. The tactical downside risk is limited.</li><li>We view that CENTEL will benefit from the surging number of tourist arrivals to Thailand and Japan, especially Chinese tourists, which have increased to near the pre-COVID figures.</li></ul>

We initiate our coverage on CENTEL with an Outperform rating and a 12M fair value of Bt45.75, based on a required rate of return of 2.0%.The valuation metrics suggest that the share price is attractive, and the core EPS growth is expected to grow well in 2024-26E at a 11% CAGR due to the improvement in the hotel business. The tactical downside risk is limited.We view that CENTEL will benefit from the surging number of tourist arrivals to Thailand and Japan, especially Chinese tourists, which have increased to near the pre-COVID figures.

Central Plaza Hotel - Better Hotel Business, but Operation in the Maldives to Remain Steady

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). </li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.</li>
<li>There could be three ADDs and three DELs as things stand. There are a couple of names lurking close to the border too.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). 
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.
There could be three ADDs and three DELs as things stand. There are a couple of names lurking close to the border too.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: Multiple Changes Possible

Thailand

Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited owns and manages hotels and quick service restaurants. The Company operates its hotels under the banner of Centara Hotels & Resorts and franchises western and Japanese quick service restaurants.

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Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL TB)

Central Plaza Hotel - Upbeat 4Q24E CP Due to Reduced Pre-Opening Expenses

The 4Q24E core profit is expected to have exceeded our previous forecast due to lower pre-opening expenses, reflecting the slower- than-expected...

Krungthai XSpring

Central Plaza Hotel -Raised Earnings Forecasts to Reflect Upbeat GPM

A neutral view is maintained on the long-term performance, with 2024-26E EPS CAGR growth of +16%, close to the industry average.

Krungthai XSpring

Central Plaza Hotel - Lowered Earnings Forecast to Reflect Higher-Than- Expected Expenses

We maintain an Outperform rating but have revised down our 12M FV to Bt35.75 (from Bt40.50 previously) due to a downward revision of our 2024...

Krungthai XSpring

Central Plaza Hotel - Better Hotel Business, but Operation in the Maldives to Remain Steady

We initiate our coverage on CENTEL with an Outperform rating and a 12M fair value of Bt45.75, based on a required rate of return of 2.0%.

Krungthai XSpring

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: Multiple Changes Possible

Ngern Tid Lor, I-TAIL, and Bangkok Chain Hospital could be added and Com7, Srisawad Corp , and KCE Electronics could be deleted according to the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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