Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The Global Fund Manager Survey in October reconfirms a bear market atmosphere due to concerns over a global economic slowdown, which is prompting investors to overweight cash and underweight equities.</li><li>While the Thai market has not escaped being impacted by the bearishness as evidenced from the net selling by foreign investors and the weaker baht amid the stronger USD, we still hold a positive view thanks to the outlook for a more outstanding recovery in Thailand than other countries, based on the upward revision to the World Bank’s 2022E GDP projection from +2.9% to +3.1% YoY.</li><li>We maintain our recommendation for stocks under the reopening theme that should benefit from the peak seasons for spending and tourism. </li></ul>

The Global Fund Manager Survey in October reconfirms a bear market atmosphere due to concerns over a global economic slowdown, which is prompting investors to overweight cash and underweight equities.While the Thai market has not escaped being impacted by the bearishness as evidenced from the net selling by foreign investors and the weaker baht amid the stronger USD, we still hold a positive view thanks to the outlook for a more outstanding recovery in Thailand than other countries, based on the upward revision to the World Bank’s 2022E GDP projection from +2.9% to +3.1% YoY.We maintain our recommendation for stocks under the reopening theme that should benefit from the peak seasons for spending and tourism. 

Special Report: Global Fund Manager Survey

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are starting to see early signs of a potential bottom on MSCI EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>Specifically, the EEM-US has reversed topside its 6-month downtrend. If MSCI EM has indeed bottomed, we want to be buying the leaders; that is where this report comes in.</li>
<li>Specific themes include attractive opportunities in India and Thailand, and also many in Taiwan and South Korea. Attractive Sectors include Energy, Financials, Materials, and Industrials.</li>
</ul>


We are starting to see early signs of a potential bottom on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
Specifically, the EEM-US has reversed topside its 6-month downtrend. If MSCI EM has indeed bottomed, we want to be buying the leaders; that is where this report comes in.
Specific themes include attractive opportunities in India and Thailand, and also many in Taiwan and South Korea. Attractive Sectors include Energy, Financials, Materials, and Industrials.


Finding Leadership Within Emerging Markets

<ul><li>We suggest selling JMART after we recommended buying it yesterday because the stock has fallen out of our top rankings (with the return at +0.51%).</li><li>However, long-term investors may continue holding it, with the loss-stopping point at Bt48.00.</li><li>We add KKP to the portfolio, as the stock is likely to offer a YoY increase in the dividend payment for its1H22performance, which will be made in September, after it reported 1H22 earnings of Bt4,089mn, +45.1% YoY.</li></ul>

We suggest selling JMART after we recommended buying it yesterday because the stock has fallen out of our top rankings (with the return at +0.51%).However, long-term investors may continue holding it, with the loss-stopping point at Bt48.00.We add KKP to the portfolio, as the stock is likely to offer a YoY increase in the dividend payment for its1H22performance, which will be made in September, after it reported 1H22 earnings of Bt4,089mn, +45.1% YoY.

<ul><li>We recommend selling EA (with the return since it was first added at +0.9%, as the stock has fallen out of our top rankings.</li><li>We add JMART to the portfolio thanks to the expected 2Q22E earnings growth of 24.6% QoQ and 74.4% YoY to Bt405mn; this should have come on the back of the growth in the firms under its umbrella, led by JMT (the consensus estimates 2Q22E net profit at Bt392mn, +6.8% QoQ and +35.7% YoY) due to the seasonal increase in bad debt purchases and lower finance costs following the repayment of debentures, as well as SINGER (the consensus earnings estimate for 2Q22E is Bt246mn, +14.2% QoQ and +34.7% YoY) owing to the peak season for the sales of air conditioners.</li><li><div><div><div><div><p>GULF is a holding company engaging in core businesses relating to the generation and distribution of power based on natural gas and alternative energy. The firm also invests in infrastructure and other related businesses.</p></div></div></div></div></li></ul>

We recommend selling EA (with the return since it was first added at +0.9%, as the stock has fallen out of our top rankings.We add JMART to the portfolio thanks to the expected 2Q22E earnings growth of 24.6% QoQ and 74.4% YoY to Bt405mn; this should have come on the back of the growth in the firms under its umbrella, led by JMT (the consensus estimates 2Q22E net profit at Bt392mn, +6.8% QoQ and +35.7% YoY) due to the seasonal increase in bad debt purchases and lower finance costs following the repayment of debentures, as well as SINGER (the consensus earnings estimate for 2Q22E is Bt246mn, +14.2% QoQ and +34.7% YoY) owing to the peak season for the sales of air conditioners.GULF is a holding company engaging in core businesses relating to the generation and distribution of power based on natural gas and alternative energy. The firm also invests in infrastructure and other related businesses.

<ul><li>We suggest selling MEGA (with there turn since it was first added at-0.50%), as the stock has fallen out of our top rankings.</li><li>Yesterday, our Big Cap portfolio generated a return of -0.03%, vs. the SET Index’s return of +0.25%, due to profit taking on stocks whose prices gained the day before, such as BDMS (-1.80%), MAJOR (-1.45%), BH (-0.81%), and MINT (-0.74%).</li><li><div><div><p>GULF is a holding company engaging in core businesses relating to the generation and distribution of power based on natural gas and alternative energy. The firm also invests in infrastructure and other related businesses.</p></div></div></li></ul>

We suggest selling MEGA (with there turn since it was first added at-0.50%), as the stock has fallen out of our top rankings.Yesterday, our Big Cap portfolio generated a return of -0.03%, vs. the SET Index’s return of +0.25%, due to profit taking on stocks whose prices gained the day before, such as BDMS (-1.80%), MAJOR (-1.45%), BH (-0.81%), and MINT (-0.74%).GULF is a holding company engaging in core businesses relating to the generation and distribution of power based on natural gas and alternative energy. The firm also invests in infrastructure and other related businesses.

Thailand

Central Pattana Public Company Limited and its subsidiaries develop properties including shopping centers, condominiums, and office, for sale and rental.  The Company's projects include Central Plaza Lardprao, Central Plaza Ram-indra,  Central Plaza Pinklao, Central Festival Center Pattaya, and Central Plaza Ratchada.

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Central Pattana Pub (CPN TB)

Special Report: Global Fund Manager Survey

We maintain our recommendation for stocks under the reopening theme that should benefit from the peak seasons for spending and tourism

Krungthai XSpring

Finding Leadership Within Emerging Markets

We are starting to see early signs of a potential bottom on $EEM. Specifically, the EEM has reversed topside its 6-month downtrend. If EEM has...

Vermilion Research

Big Cap Tactical Picks - August 9, 2022

We suggest selling JMART after we recommended buying it yesterday because the stock has fallen out of our top rankings (with the return at +0.51%).

Krungthai XSpring

Big Cap Tactical Picks - August 8, 2022

We recommend selling EA (with the return since it was first added at +0.9%, as the stock has fallen out of our top rankings.

Krungthai XSpring

Big Cap Tactical Picks - August 5, 2022

We suggest selling MEGA (with there turn since it was first added at-0.50%), as the stock has fallen out of our top rankings.

Krungthai XSpring

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