Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) recapitalization plan is fundamentally flawed. It is not large enough. It does not address processes, systems. It does not address inherent weakness in the corporate sector. Recent results for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10669" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10669:1">IDBI Bank Ltd (IDBI IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/544" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:544:1">Central Bank Of India (CBOI IN)</a> show all too clearly how any new monies provided to government owned banks, is immediately at risk of loss. This recap plan would essentially be the first of several, not an end all.What stands out with IDBI and…

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) recapitalization plan is fundamentally flawed. It is not large enough. It does not address processes, systems. It does not address inherent weakness in the corporate sector. Recent results for IDBI Bank Ltd (IDBI IN) and Central Bank Of India (CBOI IN) show all too clearly how any new monies provided to government owned banks, is immediately at risk of loss. This recap plan would essentially be the first of several, not an end all.What stands out with IDBI and…

India’s economy continues to slow. Yet, many of India’s banks are expanding credit aggressively. The risk is that new debtors are not expecting a protracted deceleration in the overall economy – or more succinctly, their revenue, their income. Loan seasoning risks are highest with some of the safest banks. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/558" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1">HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCB IN)</a> stands out.India’s real GDP growth for June 2017 came in at 5.7%. This is the fifth consecutive quarter of deceleration in the pace of growth.  This is fine, and…

India’s economy continues to slow. Yet, many of India’s banks are expanding credit aggressively. The risk is that new debtors are not expecting a protracted deceleration in the overall economy – or more succinctly, their revenue, their income. Loan seasoning risks are highest with some of the safest banks. HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCB IN) stands out.India’s real GDP growth for June 2017 came in at 5.7%. This is the fifth consecutive quarter of deceleration in the pace of growth.  This is fine, and…

Fast Growing Banks, Amidst Slowing Growth: India

Equity Bottom-Up

India has cut interest rates again. The successive multiple rate cuts suggest to us that all is not well in the India economy. There will be inflated risk for those banks that have been especially aggressive at lending. For the listed banks with data through June 2017, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/558" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1">HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCB IN)</a> shows by far the most aggressive growth in credit. The concern ultimately is about the seasoning of loans into a worsening economic environment. Maybe this is why the bank is already showing some of…

India has cut interest rates again. The successive multiple rate cuts suggest to us that all is not well in the India economy. There will be inflated risk for those banks that have been especially aggressive at lending. For the listed banks with data through June 2017, HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCB IN) shows by far the most aggressive growth in credit. The concern ultimately is about the seasoning of loans into a worsening economic environment. Maybe this is why the bank is already showing some of…

India's 7th Rate Cut, HDFC's Defiant Loan Growth

Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

Post the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) decisive victory in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) state elections, alarm bells have commenced tolling in the capital market.  The cause for concern is the BJP’s promise to the UP electorate to waive off all farm loans and provide fresh loans at zero per cent interest. Media, capital market analysts and prominent bankers have jumped on the bandwagon of moral hazard, ruining the loan payment discipline amongst farmers and apprehensions that the sacrosanct fiscal deficit may be breached as a consequence of such ‘populist’ policies. The BJP electoral promise raises some issues which need to be explored further on whether the central government has the fiscal space to provide for a total farm waiver and whether the criticism of moral hazard is credible.

Post the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) decisive victory in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) state elections, alarm bells have commenced tolling in the capital market.  The cause for concern is the BJP’s promise to the UP electorate to waive off all farm loans and provide fresh loans at zero per cent interest. Media, capital market analysts and prominent bankers have jumped on the bandwagon of moral hazard, ruining the loan payment discipline amongst farmers and apprehensions that the sacrosanct fiscal deficit may be breached as a consequence of such ‘populist’ policies. The BJP electoral promise raises some issues which need to be explored further on whether the central government has the fiscal space to provide for a total farm waiver and whether the criticism of moral hazard is credible.

U.P. Loan Waiver: 'Populist' or a Necessity?

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

Expectations on economic reforms from Modi government are running high after the big win in Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts are expecting this win to ease Modi's chances for another term at national elections in 2019 and that would give him total 7 year period to push for reforms (In his victory speech Modi himself said he is now looking for delivering by 2022 - the 75th year of Indian Independence). Amidst the euphoria of Modi's victory, we would like to highlight some of the ground realities…

Expectations on economic reforms from Modi government are running high after the big win in Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts are expecting this win to ease Modi's chances for another term at national elections in 2019 and that would give him total 7 year period to push for reforms (In his victory speech Modi himself said he is now looking for delivering by 2022 - the 75th year of Indian Independence). Amidst the euphoria of Modi's victory, we would like to highlight some of the ground realities…

Investors Need To Be Patient With Reform Momentum Even As Modi Win Ensures Policy Continuity

India

Central Bank Of India is a full service commercial bank. The Bank's services include taking deposits, lending services, and investing. Central bank operates branches throughout India.

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Central Bank Of India (CBOI IN)

More Losses at India State Banks

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) recapitalization plan is fundamentally flawed. It is not large enough. It does not address processes, systems. It...

Daniel Tabbush

Fast Growing Banks, Amidst Slowing Growth: India

India’s economy continues to slow. Yet, many of India’s banks are expanding credit aggressively. The risk is that new debtors are not expecting a...

Daniel Tabbush

India's 7th Rate Cut, HDFC's Defiant Loan Growth

India has cut interest rates again. The successive multiple rate cuts suggest to us that all is not well in the India economy. There will be...

Daniel Tabbush

U.P. Loan Waiver: 'Populist' or a Necessity?

Post the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) decisive victory in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) state elections, alarm bells have commenced tolling in the...

Hemindra Hazari

Investors Need To Be Patient With Reform Momentum Even As Modi Win Ensures Policy Continuity

Expectations on economic reforms from Modi government are running high after the big win in Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts are expecting this...

Asia Advisors

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