Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>On 11 March 2022, the Celltrion Group was acquitted of intentional accounting fraud by the Korean financial authorities after more than four years of investigation.</li>
<li>This is likely to result in a major positive boost on the shares of Celltrion Inc, Celltrion Healthcare, and Celltrion Pharm in the next several weeks.</li>
<li>We note that the decision about the Celltrion Group was announced on 11 March, one day after Yoon Suk-Yeol was declared to become the next President of South Korea.</li>
</ul>


On 11 March 2022, the Celltrion Group was acquitted of intentional accounting fraud by the Korean financial authorities after more than four years of investigation.
This is likely to result in a major positive boost on the shares of Celltrion Inc, Celltrion Healthcare, and Celltrion Pharm in the next several weeks.
We note that the decision about the Celltrion Group was announced on 11 March, one day after Yoon Suk-Yeol was declared to become the next President of South Korea.


Celltrion Inc: Acquitted of Intentional Accounting Fraud by the Korean Financial Authorities

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we provide the data analysis regarding most shorted stocks and short selling ratios for stocks in KOSPI. </li>
<li>Among these 20 most shorted stocks in KOSPI, the % changes in the short amount on a one week and one month basis were -0.2% and 6.4%, respectively.</li>
<li>Among these 20 most shorted stocks in KOSPI, three stocks with the biggest decline in shorts on a one month basis included Krafton, Kumho Petro Chemical, and Samsung Heavy Industries. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we provide the data analysis regarding most shorted stocks and short selling ratios for stocks in KOSPI. 
Among these 20 most shorted stocks in KOSPI, the % changes in the short amount on a one week and one month basis were -0.2% and 6.4%, respectively.
Among these 20 most shorted stocks in KOSPI, three stocks with the biggest decline in shorts on a one month basis included Krafton, Kumho Petro Chemical, and Samsung Heavy Industries. 


Korea Short Selling Data Analysis: Celltrion, Amorepacific, Hotel Shilla, & Hanssem

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>Fierce competition is an industry-wide phenomena in biosimilar products. Despite being an early mover, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a> is also facing competition for its marketed biosimilars.</li>
<li>The market share of Celltrion’s key biosimilar product, Remsima is declining. Other marketed and upcoming biosimilars also have multiple existing players.</li>
<li>With the waning COVID-19 infections in the U.S., demand for Celltrion’s rapid test kits seems uncertain.</li>
</ul>


Fierce competition is an industry-wide phenomena in biosimilar products. Despite being an early mover, Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) is also facing competition for its marketed biosimilars.
The market share of Celltrion’s key biosimilar product, Remsima is declining. Other marketed and upcoming biosimilars also have multiple existing players.
With the waning COVID-19 infections in the U.S., demand for Celltrion’s rapid test kits seems uncertain.


Celltrion (068270 KS): Increasing Biosimilar Competition- Main Concerning Factor

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The announced changes are exactly in line with our forecasts with one change each for the Secondary Battery, Bio and Game Index. There are three changes to the Internet Index.</li>
<li>There are two changes to the BBIG Index with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-energy-solution" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33464:1" rel="noopener">LG Energy Solution (373220 KS)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-chem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3583:1" rel="noopener">LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/afreecatv-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20163:1" rel="noopener">AfreecaTV (067160 KS)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/douzone-bizon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20161:1" rel="noopener">Douzone Bizon (012510 KS)</a>. </li>
<li>The largest buying impact will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/afreecatv-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20163:1" rel="noopener">AfreecaTV (067160 KS)</a> while the largest selling impact will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/douzone-bizon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20161:1" rel="noopener">Douzone Bizon (012510 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soulbrain-co-ltd-4208cf78-7fa9-4449-af35-bd0bde9d4726" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35407:1" rel="noopener">Soulbrain (357780)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-chem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3583:1" rel="noopener">LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The announced changes are exactly in line with our forecasts with one change each for the Secondary Battery, Bio and Game Index. There are three changes to the Internet Index.
There are two changes to the BBIG Index with LG Energy Solution (373220 KS) replacing LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS) and AfreecaTV (067160 KS) replacing Douzone Bizon (012510 KS). 
The largest buying impact will be on AfreecaTV (067160 KS) while the largest selling impact will be on Douzone Bizon (012510 KS), Soulbrain (357780) and LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS).


KRX New Deal Index Rebalance: No Surprises as LG Chem Not Deleted from Battery Index

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>The screening period for the upcoming rebalancing is May 3-31. LG Energy satisfies the 3-month minimum listing requirement, so it becomes eligible to join the Index in this rebalancing.</li>
<li>LG Energy will likely receive an inflow of ₩44.6B, 0.04% of SO. Considering its tight real-world float (less than 6%), it would still be something we don't want to overlook.</li>
<li>What is critical is an estimated outflow size of Celltrion. It would be about the same amount, but relative to its ADTV, it will be -0.26x.</li>
</ul>


The screening period for the upcoming rebalancing is May 3-31. LG Energy satisfies the 3-month minimum listing requirement, so it becomes eligible to join the Index in this rebalancing.
LG Energy will likely receive an inflow of ₩44.6B, 0.04% of SO. Considering its tight real-world float (less than 6%), it would still be something we don't want to overlook.
What is critical is an estimated outflow size of Celltrion. It would be about the same amount, but relative to its ADTV, it will be -0.26x.


FnGuide TIGER Top 10 Rebalancing: LG Energy IN & Celltrion OUT

South Korea

Celltrion, Inc. produces and sells biosimilar products, as well as consignment processing services for other businesses.

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Celltrion (068270 KP)

Celltrion Inc: Acquitted of Intentional Accounting Fraud by the Korean Financial Authorities

On 11 March 2022, the Celltrion Group was acquitted of intentional accounting fraud by the Korean financial authorities after more than four years...

Douglas Kim

Korea Short Selling Data Analysis: Celltrion, Amorepacific, Hotel Shilla, & Hanssem

Among these 20 most shorted stocks in KOSPI, the % changes in the short amount on a one week and one month basis were -0.2% and 6.4%, respectively.

Douglas Kim

Celltrion (068270 KS): Increasing Biosimilar Competition- Main Concerning Factor

Celltrion is facing increasing competition for its marketed products in both EU and the U.S. Price erosion coupled with inflated SG&A and R&D...

Tina Banerjee

KRX New Deal Index Rebalance: No Surprises as LG Chem Not Deleted from Battery Index

There is one change each for the Secondary Battery, Bio and Game Index. There are three changes to the Internet Index. LG Chem has not been deleted...

Brian Freitas

FnGuide TIGER Top 10 Rebalancing: LG Energy IN & Celltrion OUT

This post previews the upcoming rebalancing of the FnGuide Top 10 Index (TIGER ETF, KS 292150), whose AUM currently amounts to ₩1T. At this point,...

Sanghyun Park

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