Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +32.6%y/y for 2Q22, an acceleration from what was reported for 1Q22.</li>
<li>61% of companies delivered positive sales surprise, up from 58% in 1Q22, whilst 56% delivered positive EPS surprise, down from 64% in 1Q22.</li>
<li>Historically, there has been a massive difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.</li>
</ul>


The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +32.6%y/y for 2Q22, an acceleration from what was reported for 1Q22.
61% of companies delivered positive sales surprise, up from 58% in 1Q22, whilst 56% delivered positive EPS surprise, down from 64% in 1Q22.
Historically, there has been a massive difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.


Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 2Q2022

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Thai Life Insurance  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34915:1" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB)</a> will start trading on 25 July. Thai Life raised US$975 million at the IPO price of THB16.00 per share.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-life-insurance-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:71653" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-life-insurance-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:71693" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-life-insurance-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:71995" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance IPO: Valuation Insights</a>. </li>
<li>The average of our DDM and relative valuation methodology suggests a price of THB15.43 per share. Remain on the sidelines as the IPO price is fair. </li>
</ul>



Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) will start trading on 25 July. Thai Life raised US$975 million at the IPO price of THB16.00 per share.
We previously discussed the IPO in Thai Life Insurance IPO: The Bull Case, Thai Life Insurance IPO: The Bear Case and Thai Life Insurance IPO: Valuation Insights. 
The average of our DDM and relative valuation methodology suggests a price of THB15.43 per share. Remain on the sidelines as the IPO price is fair. 


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Shin Kong Financial Holding / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-kong-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15351:1" rel="noopener">Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT)</a> (SKFH) aims to raise around US$400m via an accelerated primary GDS offering.</li>
<li>This will be the third fundraising by the company in as many years. Both the prior deals did well and this one too appears to be well flagged.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) (SKFH) aims to raise around US$400m via an accelerated primary GDS offering.
This will be the third fundraising by the company in as many years. Both the prior deals did well and this one too appears to be well flagged.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Shin Kong Financial Holdings Placement - Deal Appears to Be Very Well Flagged

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.</li>
<li>The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.</li>
<li>Developed over nearly 4 years and implemented in its current state for nearly 2 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.</li>
</ul>


An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.
The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.
Developed over nearly 4 years and implemented in its current state for nearly 2 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.


Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Another Troubled Bank Deal In Asia Adds Another Managerial Distraction;   </li>
<li>DBS Agreed to Acquire Citigroup’s Taiwan Consumer Franchise for SGD 2.9 bn After Three Taiwan Banks Couldn’t Make This Deal Work; and </li>
<li>In Addition, DBS’ Fundamentals Continue to Weaken, With Lower Fees, Compressed Margins, and Modestly Weaker Credit. </li>
</ul>


Another Troubled Bank Deal In Asia Adds Another Managerial Distraction;   
DBS Agreed to Acquire Citigroup’s Taiwan Consumer Franchise for SGD 2.9 bn After Three Taiwan Banks Couldn’t Make This Deal Work; and 
In Addition, DBS’ Fundamentals Continue to Weaken, With Lower Fees, Compressed Margins, and Modestly Weaker Credit. 


DBS Group Holdings – And Baby Makes Three

Taiwan

Cathay Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides traditional life, health care, and accident insurances, as well as banking, security underwriting, and brokerage services.

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Cathay Financial Holding Co (2882 TT)

Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 2Q2022

In this quarterly insight, we analyse recent GEM reporting trends with reference to Sales- and EPS growth, size and percentage of positive...

Wium Malan, CFA

Thai Life Insurance IPO: Trading Debut

The average of our DDM and relative valuation methodology suggests a price of THB15.43 per share. Remain on the sidelines as the IPO price is fair.

Arun George

Shin Kong Financial Holdings Placement - Deal Appears to Be Very Well Flagged

Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) aims to raise around US$400m via an accelerated primary GDS offering. This will be the third fund raising by...

Sumeet Singh

Screening for GEMs: March 2022

This insight provides an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, based on a Multifactor model, a Deep Neural...

Wium Malan, CFA

DBS Group Holdings – And Baby Makes Three

DBS: Another troubled bank deal adds another managerial distraction, as DBS has agreed to acquire Citigroup’s Taiwan consumer franchise. Further,...

Thomas J. Monaco

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