Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Kelusa Asia Focus Funds

Equity Bottom-Up

Caterpillar's outlook for 2016/2017 is best summarized in their earnings release on page 2. I don't really need to say more after posting this excerpt. Stock reaction was a bit puzzling but then again consensus still continues to expect a recovery which is why the stock is trading at these inflated multiples ( Read my piece <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/caterpillar-up-29-ytd-paying-for-a-recovery-that-s-not-happened-yet" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:6511">Caterpillar : Up 29% YTD. Paying For A Recovery That’s Not Happened Yet ?</a>)<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/015/322/original/CATOutlook.png?1477445704" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="15322"></figure>Source : Q3 filings companyTo put things in perspective analysts would have to lower their numbers…

Caterpillar's outlook for 2016/2017 is best summarized in their earnings release on page 2. I don't really need to say more after posting this excerpt. Stock reaction was a bit puzzling but then again consensus still continues to expect a recovery which is why the stock is trading at these inflated multiples ( Read my piece Caterpillar : Up 29% YTD. Paying For A Recovery That’s Not Happened Yet ?)Source : Q3 filings companyTo put things in perspective analysts would have to lower their numbers…

Caterpillar just came out with their September retail sales number. It makes for poor reading with data in the US continuing to get worse.  This is a brief snapshot of their sales.  These sales numbers are 3-month rolling YoY numbers. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/015/245/original/CATnew1.png?1477324405" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="15245"></figure>Source : CompanyWhile the recovery in Asia continues courtesy China the most important piece to watch for is the US sales. I've highlighted the importance of this bit in my previous piece <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/caterpillar-up-29-ytd-paying-for-a-recovery-that-s-not-happened-yet" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:6511">Caterpillar : Up 29% YTD. Paying For A Recovery That’s Not Happened Yet ?</a> …

Caterpillar just came out with their September retail sales number. It makes for poor reading with data in the US continuing to get worse.  This is a brief snapshot of their sales.  These sales numbers are 3-month rolling YoY numbers. Source : CompanyWhile the recovery in Asia continues courtesy China the most important piece to watch for is the US sales. I've highlighted the importance of this bit in my previous piece Caterpillar : Up 29% YTD. Paying For A Recovery That’s Not Happened Yet ? …

Caterpillar September 2016 Retail Sales -18% YoY

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

A Hillary victory would benefit Thai markets in terms of TIP market re-allocations and export strength, while hurting us on global stability. Victims of Trump includes energy and exporters. If Hillary extends Obamacare, chances of Americans coming to Thailand for medical tourism will also decline yo.In Las Vegas, Hillary and Trump meet for their final debate, and both of them were SPECTACULAR. Not all the polls are out yet, but we generally agree that Hillary won narrowly. Trump had better grasps of foreign politics and exuded more confidence, but President (yes, trust me on this) Hillary won a vote from MCorp Review for superior thematic consistency (very important to us) and sportsmanship. The two candidates tied on economics, and no scores were awarded for emotional connection since this ain't no town hall format. At the end of the day, we regret to inform Trump supporters that well...he really shot himself in the foot yo. :(

A Hillary victory would benefit Thai markets in terms of TIP market re-allocations and export strength, while hurting us on global stability. Victims of Trump includes energy and exporters. If Hillary extends Obamacare, chances of Americans coming to Thailand for medical tourism will also decline yo.In Las Vegas, Hillary and Trump meet for their final debate, and both of them were SPECTACULAR. Not all the polls are out yet, but we generally agree that Hillary won narrowly. Trump had better grasps of foreign politics and exuded more confidence, but President (yes, trust me on this) Hillary won a vote from MCorp Review for superior thematic consistency (very important to us) and sportsmanship. The two candidates tied on economics, and no scores were awarded for emotional connection since this ain't no town hall format. At the end of the day, we regret to inform Trump supporters that well...he really shot himself in the foot yo. :(

What Happens in Vegas...Goes to the White House (Hillary 2, Trump 1...Game Over!)

Caterpillar is at a very interesting juncture. Share price is up 29% YTD.  A few interesting charts here show what sort of territory we are in for Caterpillar.  Let's first look at how the multiple has trended. <div class="content-highlight">P/E TREND FOR CATERPILLAR</div><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/014/836/original/CAT3.png?1476704826" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="14836"></figure>Source : Bloomberg The average historical multiple for Caterpillar is 15.5x. Currently, with earnings at a cyclical low, the multiple is 25x.  We are now 2sd outside of Caterpillars multiple band. Share price saw a low of 64$/share in September 2015 and thereafter…

Caterpillar is at a very interesting juncture. Share price is up 29% YTD.  A few interesting charts here show what sort of territory we are in for Caterpillar.  Let's first look at how the multiple has trended. P/E TREND FOR CATERPILLARSource : Bloomberg The average historical multiple for Caterpillar is 15.5x. Currently, with earnings at a cyclical low, the multiple is 25x.  We are now 2sd outside of Caterpillars multiple band. Share price saw a low of 64$/share in September 2015 and thereafter…

Caterpillar : Up 29% YTD. Paying For A Recovery That's Not Happened Yet ?

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Strong supply growth on account of high vessel deliveriesscheduled in FY16/FY17 will continue to keep the LPG shipping market in imbalance. On the demand side, with lower price of LPG in Asia, the propane trade has been hurt, and there has been no major driver of incremental demand to absorb the excess tonnage available. Freight rates across segments have dropped in the recent past, and we do not expect a meaningful recovery over the next 12 months, even thoughthere could be a short-lived…

Strong supply growth on account of high vessel deliveriesscheduled in FY16/FY17 will continue to keep the LPG shipping market in imbalance. On the demand side, with lower price of LPG in Asia, the propane trade has been hurt, and there has been no major driver of incremental demand to absorb the excess tonnage available. Freight rates across segments have dropped in the recent past, and we do not expect a meaningful recovery over the next 12 months, even thoughthere could be a short-lived…

DMER - LPG Shipping - Headwinds to Persist in FY17

United States

Caterpillar Inc. designs, manufactures and markets construction, mining and forestry machinery. The Company also manufactures engines  and other related parts for its equipment, and offers financing and insurance. Caterpillar distributes its products through a worldwide organization of dealers.

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Caterpillar Inc (CAT US)

Caterpillar 3Q 2016: Guided Down

Caterpillar's outlook for 2016/2017 is best summarized in their earnings release on page 2. I don't really need to say more after posting this...

Sameer Taneja

Caterpillar September 2016 Retail Sales -18% YoY

Caterpillar just came out with their September retail sales number. It makes for poor reading with data in the US continuing to get worse. This is...

Sameer Taneja

What Happens in Vegas...Goes to the White House (Hillary 2, Trump 1...Game Over!)

A Hillary victory would benefit Thai markets in terms of TIP market re-allocations and export strength, while hurting us on global stability....

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Caterpillar : Up 29% YTD. Paying For A Recovery That's Not Happened Yet ?

Caterpillar is at a very interesting juncture. Share price is up 29% YTD. A few interesting charts here show what sort of territory we are in for...

Sameer Taneja

DMER - LPG Shipping - Headwinds to Persist in FY17

Strong supply growth on account of high vessel deliveriesscheduled in FY16/FY17 will continue to keep the LPG shipping market in imbalance. On the...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

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