Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics which have significantly improved over the past week.</li>
<li>Last week's 11/5/24 report titled "Buy the Pullback" discussed how we were buyers, expecting a strong end-of-year rally to start that day or the following day (day after the election)</li>
<li>The strong rally officially started on election day, and all that is left to do is ride the trend higher into year-end and the early part of 2025</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics which have significantly improved over the past week.
Last week's 11/5/24 report titled "Buy the Pullback" discussed how we were buyers, expecting a strong end-of-year rally to start that day or the following day (day after the election)
The strong rally officially started on election day, and all that is left to do is ride the trend higher into year-end and the early part of 2025


Ride the Trend Higher; Significant End-Of-Year Rally Underway; Four Sector Upgrades, One Downgrade

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The market continues to send mixed signals - some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well.</li>
<li>As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495, we cannot be bearish.</li>
<li>Treasury yields are not breaking down below 1.40%-1.45% support on the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.76% support on the 30-year Treasury yield.</li>
</ul>


The market continues to send mixed signals - some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well.
As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495, we cannot be bearish.
Treasury yields are not breaking down below 1.40%-1.45% support on the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.76% support on the 30-year Treasury yield.


Continued Absence Of Breakdowns Is A Positive Sign; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cartrade-tech-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33474:1" rel="noopener">Cartrade (0056989Z IN)</a> is a leading online destination for auto consumers in India. <em>CarWale</em> and <em>BikeWale</em>, key brands owned by CarTrade, ranked number one on relative online search popularity when compared to their key competitors over the last three years, according to Google Trends data. CarTrade’s shareholders include Warburg Pincus (34.44% of fully diluted shares), Temasek (26.48%), JP Morgan (11.93%) and March Capital (7.09%). </p><p>CarTrade is looking to raise Rs28 billion ($375 million) through an IPO in India, according to press reports. The IPO comprises a pure offer for sale of 18.53 million shares by its existing shareholders and promoters. The IPO is set to launch on 9 August.  </p><p>India was the fifth largest car market in the world in 2019 and is forecasted to become the third-largest auto market in the world as measured by volume in 2025, according to RedSeer. The COVID-19 pandemic has also resulted in a shift in preference towards used cars as people limit their use of public transportation. Indian auto OEMs spent only 14% of their total ad budgets on digital advertising, which is significantly lower than the global average of 42% in 2020, according to RedSeer. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>The growing auto market combined with the rising penetration of digital ad spend presents an attractive opportunity for auto transaction platforms such as CarTrade. CarTrade is capitalising on this market opportunity as evidenced by its highly popular platforms, solid organic growth, strong margins and healthy cash generation. Overall, we think that CarTrade is an attractive play on India’s new economy sector.</p></div>

Cartrade (0056989Z IN) is a leading online destination for auto consumers in India. CarWale and BikeWale, key brands owned by CarTrade, ranked number one on relative online search popularity when compared to their key competitors over the last three years, according to Google Trends data. CarTrade’s shareholders include Warburg Pincus (34.44% of fully diluted shares), Temasek (26.48%), JP Morgan (11.93%) and March Capital (7.09%). CarTrade is looking to raise Rs28 billion ($375 million) through an IPO in India, according to press reports. The IPO comprises a pure offer for sale of 18.53 million shares by its existing shareholders and promoters. The IPO is set to launch on 9 August.  India was the fifth largest car market in the world in 2019 and is forecasted to become the third-largest auto market in the world as measured by volume in 2025, according to RedSeer. The COVID-19 pandemic has also resulted in a shift in preference towards used cars as people limit their use of public transportation. Indian auto OEMs spent only 14% of their total ad budgets on digital advertising, which is significantly lower than the global average of 42% in 2020, according to RedSeer. The growing auto market combined with the rising penetration of digital ad spend presents an attractive opportunity for auto transaction platforms such as CarTrade. CarTrade is capitalising on this market opportunity as evidenced by its highly popular platforms, solid organic growth, strong margins and healthy cash generation. Overall, we think that CarTrade is an attractive play on India’s new economy sector.

CarTrade Tech IPO Initiation: Shifting Gears

Autohome Inc (Adr) / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/autohome-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20234:1" rel="noopener">Autohome Inc (Adr) (ATHM US)</a> is a leading online destination for auto consumers in China, ranking first among automotive service platforms as measured by mobile daily active users as of 31 December 2020 according to QuestMobile. Autohome passed its Hong Kong listing committee hearing and could raise up to $1 billion through a secondary listing, according to press reports. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Autohome joins the second wave of Hong Kong secondary listings set to hit the screens in the coming months. Autohome like several companies which pursued secondary listings in the past, does not require the funds as its cash-rich and highly cash generative. Autohome is an attractive equity story as it is a leading online auto platform that can capitalise on the opportunities presented by China’s recovering auto market, in our view. </p></div>

Autohome Inc (Adr) (ATHM US) is a leading online destination for auto consumers in China, ranking first among automotive service platforms as measured by mobile daily active users as of 31 December 2020 according to QuestMobile. Autohome passed its Hong Kong listing committee hearing and could raise up to $1 billion through a secondary listing, according to press reports. Autohome joins the second wave of Hong Kong secondary listings set to hit the screens in the coming months. Autohome like several companies which pursued secondary listings in the past, does not require the funds as its cash-rich and highly cash generative. Autohome is an attractive equity story as it is a leading online auto platform that can capitalise on the opportunities presented by China’s recovering auto market, in our view. 

Autohome Secondary Listing: Motoring Online

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/propertyguru-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28149:1" rel="noopener">PropertyGuru (PGU AH)</a> is an online property classifieds marketplace with presence in five countries across South East Asia – Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia. PropertyGuru set an indicative IPO price range of A$3.70-4.50 per CDI with the final price set to be announced on 24 October.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/propertyguru-ipo-initiation-rose-tinted-glasses-required" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our initiation note</a>, we stated that while PropertyGuru is a good company, we believe that the forecasts are based on a bull scenario, leaving little room for any setbacks. From a valuation perspective, we believe that the proposed IPO price range is unattractive.</p></div>

PropertyGuru (PGU AH) is an online property classifieds marketplace with presence in five countries across South East Asia – Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia. PropertyGuru set an indicative IPO price range of A$3.70-4.50 per CDI with the final price set to be announced on 24 October.In our initiation note, we stated that while PropertyGuru is a good company, we believe that the forecasts are based on a bull scenario, leaving little room for any setbacks. From a valuation perspective, we believe that the proposed IPO price range is unattractive.

PropertyGuru IPO Valuation: Guru at Frothy Valuations

United States

Cars.com Inc. operates an online automotive platform. The Company offers new and used vehicle listings, expert and consumer reviews, research tools, and other information which helps shoppers to buy, sell, and service their vehicles. Cars.com serves customers in the United States.

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Cars.com Inc (CARS US)

Ride the Trend Higher; Significant End-Of-Year Rally Underway; Four Sector Upgrades, One Downgrade

Ride the Trend Higher; Significant End-of-Year Rally Underway $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Four Sector Upgrades ($XLF to overweight, $XLY $XLI and $IYT to...

Vermilion Research

Continued Absence Of Breakdowns Is A Positive Sign; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&P 500 is above 4495, we...

Vermilion Research

CarTrade Tech IPO Initiation: Shifting Gears

CarTrade is looking to raise Rs28 billion ($375 million) through an IPO in India. Overall, we think that CarTrade is an attractive play on India’s...

Arun George

Autohome Secondary Listing: Motoring Online

Autohome passed its HK listing hearing for a $1 billion secondary listing. Autohome is an attractive equity story that can capitalise on the...

Arun George

PropertyGuru IPO Valuation: Guru at Frothy Valuations

PropertyGuru (PGU AH) is an online property classifieds marketplace with presence in five countries across South East Asia – Singapore, Vietnam,...

Arun George

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