Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since 11/21/23 Compass we have discussed weekly that even a minor 2-5% pullback is far from a guarantee, considering "breakaway gaps" and what appeared to be an ongoing "lockout rally"</li>
<li>All we got was a 1% peak to trough decline in the S&amp;P 500, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) pulled back 2.9% (though left the 11/14/23 gap unfilled).</li>
<li>Now, SPX and QQQ are breaking out yet again after a multi-week consolidation period, including SPX breaking above 2-year resistance at 4600-4607. This is what a strong market looks like.</li>
</ul>


Since 11/21/23 Compass we have discussed weekly that even a minor 2-5% pullback is far from a guarantee, considering "breakaway gaps" and what appeared to be an ongoing "lockout rally"
All we got was a 1% peak to trough decline in the S&amp;P 500, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) pulled back 2.9% (though left the 11/14/23 gap unfilled).
Now, SPX and QQQ are breaking out yet again after a multi-week consolidation period, including SPX breaking above 2-year resistance at 4600-4607. This is what a strong market looks like.


Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607

Research Firm with a Qualitative Overlay, Pearl Gray Equity and Research

Pearl Gray Equity and Research

Research Firm with a Qualitative Overlay

Quantitative fund & research firm with a qualitative overlay. 

Our coverage: General U.S. with a skew towards the primary sector. 

Methods: Smart Beta/Factor Pricing, Neural Networks, Street Gossip, and Common Sense.

Equity Bottom-Up

Spdr Portfolio High Yield Bo / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Key indicators suggest the SPDR® Portfolio High Yield Bond ETF might benefit from price returns in the coming quarters.</li>
<li>Investors will soon "down credit" and "down duration" amid receding market risk premiums coupled with an improving U.S. current account, we say.</li>
<li>Today's analysis covers the SPDR® Portfolio High Yield Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:SPHY), which is a U.S.-centric high-yield corporate bond exchange-traded fund, or ETF, managed by State Street Global Advisors.</li>
</ul>


Key indicators suggest the SPDR® Portfolio High Yield Bond ETF might benefit from price returns in the coming quarters.
Investors will soon "down credit" and "down duration" amid receding market risk premiums coupled with an improving U.S. current account, we say.
Today's analysis covers the SPDR® Portfolio High Yield Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:SPHY), which is a U.S.-centric high-yield corporate bond exchange-traded fund, or ETF, managed by State Street Global Advisors.


SPHY ETF: Rare Opportunity For Price Gains

Dow Jones Industrial Average / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 has marginally surpassed the 4300-4325 area which we have anticipated would cap upside for 2023. </li>
<li>As noted in our 6/6/23 Compass, we are vigilant at these levels given we expect inflation to remain elevated, but we cannot be bearishif the SPX is above 4165-4200</li>
<li>Breadth has continued to improve within the Russell 2000, and the $IWM is approaching our first target of $190 following the breakout above $180. Also see breadth improving within SPX.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 has marginally surpassed the 4300-4325 area which we have anticipated would cap upside for 2023. 
As noted in our 6/6/23 Compass, we are vigilant at these levels given we expect inflation to remain elevated, but we cannot be bearishif the SPX is above 4165-4200
Breadth has continued to improve within the Russell 2000, and the $IWM is approaching our first target of $190 following the breakout above $180. Also see breadth improving within SPX.


Dow Testing 1-Year Resistance at 34,280 Ahead of FOMC; Buy Ideas Within Manufacturing/Industrials

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 broke above 4200 and the 2-month megaphone pattern on Friday, and is already approaching the 4300-4325 area which we have anticipated would cap upside for 2023.</li>
<li>While we would be cautious at these levels given our expectation for inflation to remain elevated, we cannot get too bearish if the S&amp;P 500 is above 4165-4200.</li>
<li>Breadth remains weak within the S&amp;P 500, but we are starting to see breadth improvement within small-cap Russell 2000 (IWM). More on that below, IWM targets include $190 and $200-202.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 broke above 4200 and the 2-month megaphone pattern on Friday, and is already approaching the 4300-4325 area which we have anticipated would cap upside for 2023.
While we would be cautious at these levels given our expectation for inflation to remain elevated, we cannot get too bearish if the S&amp;P 500 is above 4165-4200.
Breadth remains weak within the S&amp;P 500, but we are starting to see breadth improvement within small-cap Russell 2000 (IWM). More on that below, IWM targets include $190 and $200-202.


Russell 2000 Breakout Attempt Underway; Small-Cap Breadth Improving; KRE, KBE, XRT Test Key Levels

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Carnival Corporation had a decent quarter with revenues above expectations and narrower-than-expected losses.</li><li>The company's onboard and other revenue continued at a high pace consistent with the second half of 2022, reflecting ongoing consumer strength and the quality of its onboard product.</li><li>It is intended to give amazing facts personalized to Carnival Cruise Line guests in order to increase revenue yields and margins.</li></ul>

Carnival Corporation had a decent quarter with revenues above expectations and narrower-than-expected losses.The company's onboard and other revenue continued at a high pace consistent with the second half of 2022, reflecting ongoing consumer strength and the quality of its onboard product.It is intended to give amazing facts personalized to Carnival Cruise Line guests in order to increase revenue yields and margins.

Carnival Corporation: Improving Liquidity For The Cruise Leader – Key Drivers

United States

Carnival Corporation owns and operates cruise ships offering cruises to all major vacation destinations including North America, the United Kingdom, Germany, Southern  Europe, South America and Asia/Pacific. The Company, through a subsidiary also owns and operates hotels and lodges.  Dually-listed company with CCL LN.

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Carnival Corp (CCL US)

Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607

Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; $SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607, $COMP Breakout Above 14,400. This is what a strong...

Vermilion Research

SPHY ETF: Rare Opportunity For Price Gains

Investors will soon "down credit" and "down duration" amid receding market risk premiums coupled with an improving U.S. current account, we say.

Pearl Gray Equity and Research

Dow Testing 1-Year Resistance at 34,280 Ahead of FOMC; Buy Ideas Within Manufacturing/Industrials

Dow $DJI Testing 1-Year Resistance at 34,280 ahead of FOMC. Breadth continues to improve within the Russell 2000 $IWM, and breadth improving within...

Vermilion Research

Russell 2000 Breakout Attempt Underway; Small-Cap Breadth Improving; KRE, KBE, XRT Test Key Levels

Breadth remains weak within the $SPX, but we're seeing breadth improve within the small-cap Russell 2000 $IWM. All this points to a breakout above...

Vermilion Research

Carnival Corporation: Improving Liquidity For The Cruise Leader – Key Drivers

Carnival Corporation had a decent quarter with revenues above expectations and narrower-than-expected losses. The company's onboard and other...

Baptista Research

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