Event-Driven Investment Opportunities, Special Situation Investments

Dalius Tauraitis

Event-Driven Investment Opportunities

Special Situation Investments

Focus on event-driven trades and low risk arbitrage opportunities with short term catalysts

Event-Driven

<ul><li>SSI's Tracking Portfolio ended 2024 with a -1% return, hindered by cash holdings and significant losses in MSTR, BHIL, and BOOM.</li><li>SSI shared 85 investment ideas in 2024, including 14 Portfolio Ideas, 69 Quick Pitches, and 2 "Why I'm Not Involved" overviews.</li><li>Portfolio Ideas suffered losses over 50% due to ignored red flags, while Quick Pitches had a 60% win rate.</li></ul>

SSI's Tracking Portfolio ended 2024 with a -1% return, hindered by cash holdings and significant losses in MSTR, BHIL, and BOOM.SSI shared 85 investment ideas in 2024, including 14 Portfolio Ideas, 69 Quick Pitches, and 2 "Why I'm Not Involved" overviews.Portfolio Ideas suffered losses over 50% due to ignored red flags, while Quick Pitches had a 60% win rate.

SSI's 2024 Review: Portfolio Underperformance, Event-Driven Strategies, and Lessons from Losses

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There is one change for the ASX20, two for the ASX100, four for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX</a> and 12 adds/ 9 deletes for the ASX300 Index at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>There will be between 7-20 days of ADV to trade on the ASX100 and ASX200 adds while the impact on the deletions is between 1-11 days of ADV.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes on all indices over the last few months. Short interest has jumped on a lot of the large deletes.</li>
</ul>


There is one change for the ASX20, two for the ASX100, four for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX and 12 adds/ 9 deletes for the ASX300 Index at the March rebalance.
There will be between 7-20 days of ADV to trade on the ASX100 and ASX200 adds while the impact on the deletions is between 1-11 days of ADV.
The adds have outperformed the deletes on all indices over the last few months. Short interest has jumped on a lot of the large deletes.


S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2023): Big Impact Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes

<ul>
<li>We currently see one change each for the ASX20 and ASX100 indices, 4 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> and 10 adds/ 6 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March.</li>
<li>There could be an addition to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> in January following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a>'s acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pexa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34716:1" rel="noopener">PEXA Group (PXA AU)</a> is a potential inclusion to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a>'s in-specie distribution of PEXA shares to its shareholders is approved.</li>
</ul>


We currently see one change each for the ASX20 and ASX100 indices, 4 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and 10 adds/ 6 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March.
There could be an addition to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in January following Pendal Group (PDL AU)'s acquisition by Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU).

PEXA Group (PXA AU) is a potential inclusion to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) if Link Administration (LNK AU)'s in-specie distribution of PEXA shares to its shareholders is approved.


S&P/​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: A Busy March (Maybe January and February Too)

Global energy equity and oil & gas macro analyst

Anish Kapadia

Akap Energy

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11539" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11539:1">Carnarvon Petroleum (CVN AU)</a> has announced a A$50mm equity raise to fund the appraisal of its key Dorado discovery this year and a further exploration well in the area. We discuss why we see Carnarvon's assets as attractive.

Carnarvon Petroleum (CVN AU) has announced a A$50mm equity raise to fund the appraisal of its key Dorado discovery this year and a further exploration well in the area. We discuss why we see Carnarvon's assets as attractive. 

Carnarvon Petroleum (CVN AU) Equity Raise: Opportunity to Get Exposure to Cheap Pre-FID Oil Assets

Global Cross-Asset Energy Analyst, VAC Investments

Aaditya Chintalapati, CFA

Global Cross-Asset Energy Analyst

VAC Investments

Closely following Quadrant's recent significant exploration success at the Dorado well (see our report <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/global-e-ps-energy-weekly-vol-22" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:23234">Global E&amp;Ps: Energy Weekly Vol. 22</a> for further details) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/711" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:711:1">Santos Ltd (STO AU)</a> has announced the acquisition of 100% of the company for a cash consideration of USD 2.15Bn, plus contingent payments relating to the Bedout Basin. The transaction implies c.USD 10/boe of 2P reserves and c.USD 41,300/boepd of daily production, broadly in-line with regional transactions.

Closely following Quadrant's recent significant exploration success at the Dorado well (see our report Global E&amp;Ps: Energy Weekly Vol. 22 for further details) Santos Ltd (STO AU) has announced the acquisition of 100% of the company for a cash consideration of USD 2.15Bn, plus contingent payments relating to the Bedout Basin. The transaction implies c.USD 10/boe of 2P reserves and c.USD 41,300/boepd of daily production, broadly in-line with regional transactions. 

Santos Ltd (STO AU): Quadrant Energy Acquisition Implies USD 10/Boe 2P

Australia

Carnarvon Petroleum Limited operates as a petroleum exploration company. The Company explores and produces oil and gas products. Carnarvon Petroleum serves customers in Australia.

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Carnarvon Petroleum (CVN AU)

SSI's 2024 Review: Portfolio Underperformance, Event-Driven Strategies, and Lessons from Losses

SSI's Tracking Portfolio ended 2024 with a -1% return, hindered by cash holdings and significant losses in MSTR, BHIL, and BOOM.

Special Situation Investments

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2023): Big Impact Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes

There are 19 adds and 16 deletes across the S&P/ASX family of indices. On the larger names, passives need to buy 7-20x ADV while selling between 1...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: A Busy March (Maybe January and February Too)

There could be an adhoc ASX200 inclusion in Jan. Then there could be 1 change each for the ASX20 and ASX100 indices, 4 changes for the ASX200...

Brian Freitas