Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There is one change for the ASX20, two for the ASX100, four for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX</a> and 12 adds/ 9 deletes for the ASX300 Index at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>There will be between 7-20 days of ADV to trade on the ASX100 and ASX200 adds while the impact on the deletions is between 1-11 days of ADV.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes on all indices over the last few months. Short interest has jumped on a lot of the large deletes.</li>
</ul>


There is one change for the ASX20, two for the ASX100, four for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX and 12 adds/ 9 deletes for the ASX300 Index at the March rebalance.
There will be between 7-20 days of ADV to trade on the ASX100 and ASX200 adds while the impact on the deletions is between 1-11 days of ADV.
The adds have outperformed the deletes on all indices over the last few months. Short interest has jumped on a lot of the large deletes.


S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2023): Big Impact Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes

<ul>
<li>We currently see one change each for the ASX20 and ASX100 indices, 4 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> and 10 adds/ 6 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March.</li>
<li>There could be an addition to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> in January following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a>'s acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pexa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34716:1" rel="noopener">PEXA Group (PXA AU)</a> is a potential inclusion to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a>'s in-specie distribution of PEXA shares to its shareholders is approved.</li>
</ul>


We currently see one change each for the ASX20 and ASX100 indices, 4 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and 10 adds/ 6 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March.
There could be an addition to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in January following Pendal Group (PDL AU)'s acquisition by Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU).

PEXA Group (PXA AU) is a potential inclusion to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) if Link Administration (LNK AU)'s in-specie distribution of PEXA shares to its shareholders is approved.


S&P/​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: A Busy March (Maybe January and February Too)

Global energy equity and oil & gas macro analyst

Anish Kapadia

Akap Energy

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11539" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11539:1">Carnarvon Petroleum (CVN AU)</a> has announced a A$50mm equity raise to fund the appraisal of its key Dorado discovery this year and a further exploration well in the area. We discuss why we see Carnarvon's assets as attractive. </p>

Carnarvon Petroleum (CVN AU) has announced a A$50mm equity raise to fund the appraisal of its key Dorado discovery this year and a further exploration well in the area. We discuss why we see Carnarvon's assets as attractive. 

Carnarvon Petroleum (CVN AU) Equity Raise: Opportunity to Get Exposure to Cheap Pre-FID Oil Assets

Global Cross-Asset Energy Analyst, VAC Investments

Aaditya Chintalapati, CFA

Global Cross-Asset Energy Analyst

VAC Investments

<p>Closely following Quadrant's recent significant exploration success at the Dorado well (<em>see our report <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/global-e-ps-energy-weekly-vol-22" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:23234">Global E&amp;Ps: Energy Weekly Vol. 22</a> for further details</em>) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/711" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:711:1">Santos Ltd (STO AU)</a> has announced the acquisition of 100% of the company for a cash consideration of USD 2.15Bn, plus contingent payments relating to the Bedout Basin. The transaction implies c.USD 10/boe of 2P reserves and c.USD 41,300/boepd of daily production, broadly in-line with regional transactions. </p>

Closely following Quadrant's recent significant exploration success at the Dorado well (see our report Global E&amp;Ps: Energy Weekly Vol. 22 for further details) Santos Ltd (STO AU) has announced the acquisition of 100% of the company for a cash consideration of USD 2.15Bn, plus contingent payments relating to the Bedout Basin. The transaction implies c.USD 10/boe of 2P reserves and c.USD 41,300/boepd of daily production, broadly in-line with regional transactions. 

Santos Ltd (STO AU): Quadrant Energy Acquisition Implies USD 10/Boe 2P

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Oil Price</h2><p>A seventh straight weekly drop for Crude Oil prices was seen last week, the longest losing streak in prices since 2015. WTI ended the week at USD 65.93/bbl, with Brent at USD 71.76/bbl, both down c.3% w/w. Continued price weakness was driven by API's estimate of record US Crude Oil (10.7 MMbbls) and NGLs production (4.4 MMbbls) in 2018, combined with modest production growth amongst OPEC countries such as Libya. Elsewhere, despite risks to as much as c.600K - 1.2Mbbls/day of Crude oil…</p>

Oil PriceA seventh straight weekly drop for Crude Oil prices was seen last week, the longest losing streak in prices since 2015. WTI ended the week at USD 65.93/bbl, with Brent at USD 71.76/bbl, both down c.3% w/w. Continued price weakness was driven by API's estimate of record US Crude Oil (10.7 MMbbls) and NGLs production (4.4 MMbbls) in 2018, combined with modest production growth amongst OPEC countries such as Libya. Elsewhere, despite risks to as much as c.600K - 1.2Mbbls/day of Crude oil…

Australia

Carnarvon Petroleum Limited operates as a petroleum exploration company. The Company explores and produces oil and gas products. Carnarvon Petroleum serves customers in Australia.

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Carnarvon Petroleum (CVN AU)

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2023): Big Impact Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes

There are 19 adds and 16 deletes across the S&P/ASX family of indices. On the larger names, passives need to buy 7-20x ADV while selling between 1...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: A Busy March (Maybe January and February Too)

There could be an adhoc ASX200 inclusion in Jan. Then there could be 1 change each for the ASX20 and ASX100 indices, 4 changes for the ASX200...

Brian Freitas