European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since mid-July, spreads have not followed a clear pattern across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 9 widened, 1 at same level).</li>
<li>Spreads could further widen in the short-term. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, Schindler, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Carlsberg, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, VW, Grifols, Atlas Copco.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-July, spreads have not followed a clear pattern across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 9 widened, 1 at same level).
Spreads could further widen in the short-term. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, Schindler, SSAB Svenska Stal.
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Carlsberg, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, VW, Grifols, Atlas Copco.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August‘23 Report

<ul>
<li>Since mid-May, spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe (13 have tightened, 6 widened).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Carlsberg, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, VW, Grifols, Atlas Copco.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-May, spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe (13 have tightened, 6 widened).
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Carlsberg, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, VW, Grifols, Atlas Copco.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: June‘23 Report

<ul>
<li>Since mid-April, spreads have generally widened across our liquid universe (12 have widened, 7 tightened). German spreads are tightening.</li>
<li>Recommended trades <strong>long ordinary / short preferred</strong> shares: Fuchs Petrolub, SSAB Svenska Stal, Roche.</li>
<li>Recommended trades <strong>long preferred / short ordinary</strong> shares: Carlsberg, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, VW, Grifols, Atlas Copco.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-April, spreads have generally widened across our liquid universe (12 have widened, 7 tightened). German spreads are tightening.
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs Petrolub, SSAB Svenska Stal, Roche.
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Carlsberg, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, VW, Grifols, Atlas Copco.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: May‘23 Report

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook, initially discussed in our January 6th 2023 Int'l Compass, was for $93 to cap upside on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); this has again proven prescient.</li>
<li>Since late-January/early-February we have recommended shifting to defensives, and MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care (IXJ-US), Utilities (JXI-US), and Consumer Staples (KXI-US) are now hitting 3-4-month RS highs.</li>
<li>With the ACWI-US just now starting to turn down after testing $93, we continue to recommend a tactical overweight to the aforementioned defensive Sectors, and also to gold miners (GDX-US).</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook, initially discussed in our January 6th 2023 Int'l Compass, was for $93 to cap upside on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); this has again proven prescient.
Since late-January/early-February we have recommended shifting to defensives, and MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care (IXJ-US), Utilities (JXI-US), and Consumer Staples (KXI-US) are now hitting 3-4-month RS highs.
With the ACWI-US just now starting to turn down after testing $93, we continue to recommend a tactical overweight to the aforementioned defensive Sectors, and also to gold miners (GDX-US).


Stay Tactically Overweight Defensives; Remain Overweight Europe, Japan, & EAFE. Buys in Defensives

<ul>
<li>Since mid-March, spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe (6 have widened, 12 tightened, 1 at same level).</li>
<li>Possible trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs Petrolub, Henkel, Handelsbanken, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
<li>Possible trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Sixt, VW, Danieli, Grifols, Atlas Copco.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-March, spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe (6 have widened, 12 tightened, 1 at same level).
Possible trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs Petrolub, Henkel, Handelsbanken, SSAB Svenska Stal.
Possible trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Sixt, VW, Danieli, Grifols, Atlas Copco.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April ‘23 Report

Denmark

Carlsberg A/S is an international brewing company. The Company produces branded beers and regional brands. Carlsberg makes most of its beer outside of Denmark, and it is sold in markets around the world. The Company also markets and produces soft drinks, water, and wine.

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Carlsberg A/S (CARLB DC)

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August‘23 Report

Since mid-July, spreads have not followed a clear pattern across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 9...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: June‘23 Report

Since mid-May, spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe (13 have tightened, 6 widened). Some spreads are relatively large, such...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: May‘23 Report

Since mid-April, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred (12 spreads have widened, whilst 7...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Stay Tactically Overweight Defensives; Remain Overweight Europe, Japan, & EAFE. Buys in Defensives

$93 on $ACWI continues to be a key resistance that we have discussed since early-Jan as capping upside for 2023. Stick with defensives $IXJ $XLV...

Vermilion Research

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April ‘23 Report

Since mid-March, spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe (6 have widened, 12 tightened, 1 at same level).

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)