US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, Ortex

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

Ortex

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Index Committee's discretion decreases the predictability of index changes. Even when a company passes all eligibility criteria and thresholds, it might still not be selected.</li>
<li>Understanding triggers for index changes, types of additions/deletions and selection patterns, narrows down the pool of candidates and increases conviction of forecasts.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dell-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32189:1" rel="noopener">Dell Technologies (DELL US)</a> is currently the main candidate to be added by transition to the S&amp;P 500 in September 2024 Quarterly Rebalance.</li>
</ul>


Index Committee's discretion decreases the predictability of index changes. Even when a company passes all eligibility criteria and thresholds, it might still not be selected.
Understanding triggers for index changes, types of additions/deletions and selection patterns, narrows down the pool of candidates and increases conviction of forecasts.

Dell Technologies (DELL US) is currently the main candidate to be added by transition to the S&amp;P 500 in September 2024 Quarterly Rebalance.


S&P 500 / S&P 1500: Deriving Forecasts & First Prediction for September

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dell-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32189:1" rel="noopener">Dell Technologies (DELL US)</a> is the main candidate for addition-transition with uncertainty arising from the 'Multiple Share Classes' criterion. Forecasted demand is ~$7bn and ~4 ADV.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/williams-sonoma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11383:1" rel="noopener">Williams Sonoma (WSM US)</a> is one of the top candidates for addition-migration with uncertainty due to the migrations' inconsistent market cap selection pattern. Forecasted demand is $840m and ~2.6 ADV.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/american-airlines-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3663:1" rel="noopener">American Airlines Group (AAL US)</a> is one of the main candidates for deletion with uncertainty due to price hence ranking fluctuations until cut-off. Forecasted supply is $290m and ~0.8 ADV.</li>
</ul>



Dell Technologies (DELL US) is the main candidate for addition-transition with uncertainty arising from the 'Multiple Share Classes' criterion. Forecasted demand is ~$7bn and ~4 ADV.

Williams Sonoma (WSM US) is one of the top candidates for addition-migration with uncertainty due to the migrations' inconsistent market cap selection pattern. Forecasted demand is $840m and ~2.6 ADV.

American Airlines Group (AAL US) is one of the main candidates for deletion with uncertainty due to price hence ranking fluctuations until cut-off. Forecasted supply is $290m and ~0.8 ADV.


S&P 500 September Forecasts: Saved by the Dell?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>The rankings used for the June 2024 index rebal event will be decided based on the opening prices tomorrow (6th June 2024).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a final look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the rankings for the upcoming review.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
The rankings used for the June 2024 index rebal event will be decided based on the opening prices tomorrow (6th June 2024).
In this insight, we take a final look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the rankings for the upcoming review.


Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Jun 24: Ranks to Be Finalized Tomorrow; 2 Changes Possible

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>Having lagged competitors on share price basis since Holcim/Lafarge merger, on 29 January, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/holcim-ltd-7f60ceaa-51af-4f85-ac5f-114595eb04f3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27916:1" rel="noopener">Holcim (HOLN SW)</a> announced plans to spin-off and list its North American business in the US.</li>
<li>Infrastructure and housing are reponsible for U.S. comparables to trade on 14.7x median EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA, in sharp contrast to 5.4x median EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA of European comparables. </li>
<li>Even if valuing the RoW business at the lower median European multiples, the spin-off should be value accretive. My fair value estimate of CHF 84.47/share represents 25.7% upside.</li>
</ul>


Having lagged competitors on share price basis since Holcim/Lafarge merger, on 29 January, Holcim (HOLN SW) announced plans to spin-off and list its North American business in the US.
Infrastructure and housing are reponsible for U.S. comparables to trade on 14.7x median EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA, in sharp contrast to 5.4x median EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA of European comparables. 
Even if valuing the RoW business at the lower median European multiples, the spin-off should be value accretive. My fair value estimate of CHF 84.47/share represents 25.7% upside.


Guasty Winds Investment Ideas, Guasty Winds

Guasty Winds

Guasty Winds Investment Ideas

I am a full-time private investor, ex-L/S. I document my investment portfolio decisions and share my work here.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Carlisle’s earnings came in a little soft in the quarter, driven mostly by a greater magnitude of de-stock than first anticipated and some weather-related delays.</li>
<li>In addition, the company lowered guidance for the year for CCM with a hit to both margins and volumes.</li>
<li>I was already below guidance on margins for this year but I was too high on sales, and the deleverage has caused margins to come in &lt;30% for 2023.</li>
</ul>


Carlisle’s earnings came in a little soft in the quarter, driven mostly by a greater magnitude of de-stock than first anticipated and some weather-related delays.
In addition, the company lowered guidance for the year for CCM with a hit to both margins and volumes.
I was already below guidance on margins for this year but I was too high on sales, and the deleverage has caused margins to come in &lt;30% for 2023.


United States

Carlisle Companies Incorporated manufactures and distributes construction materials, transportation products, and general industry products.  The Company manufactures a variety of products for the roofing, real estate, construction, trucking, food-service, aircraft manufacturing, lawn and garden, and other industries.

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Carlisle Cos (CSL US)

S&P 500 / S&P 1500: Deriving Forecasts & First Prediction for September

S&P Index Committee's discretion reduces predictability of index changes. Identifying patterns and types of changes, narrows down the addition...

Dimitris Ioannidis

S&P 500 September Forecasts: Saved by the Dell?

Dell Technologies is the biggest candidate for inclusion in the S&P 500 with forecasted demand of ~$7bn and ~4 days of volume. Uncertainty arises...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Jun 24: Ranks to Be Finalized Tomorrow; 2 Changes Possible

The S&P500 review will be announced on Friday. The reference price used will be Thursday's opening price. We expect up to two changes, but would...

Travis Lundy

Value from US Spin-Off

Holcim plans to spin-off and list its North American business in the US, which should be value accretive and could result in a 25.7% upside.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Carlisle (CSL-US) 1Q23 Update

Carlisle’s earnings came in a little soft in the quarter, driven mostly by a greater magnitude of de-stock than first anticipated and some weather...

Guasty Winds

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

S&P 500 / S&P 1500: Deriving Forecasts & First Prediction for September

S&P ​Index Committee's discretion reduces predictability of index changes. Identifying patterns and types of changes, narrows down the addition...

Dimitris Ioannidis

S&P 500 September Forecasts: Saved by the Dell?

​Dell Technologies is the biggest candidate for inclusion in the S&P 500 with forecasted demand of ~$7bn and ~4 days of volume. Uncertainty arises...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Jun 24: Ranks to Be Finalized Tomorrow; 2 Changes Possible

The S&P500 review will be announced on Friday. The reference price used will be Thursday's opening price. We expect up to two changes, but would...

Travis Lundy

Value from US Spin-Off

​Holcim plans to spin-off and list its North American business in the US, which should be value accretive and could result in a 25.7% upside.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Carlisle (CSL-US) 1Q23 Update

Carlisle’s earnings came in a little soft in the quarter, driven mostly by a greater magnitude of de-stock than first anticipated and some weather...

Guasty Winds

S&P Index Committee's discretion reduces predictability of index changes. Identifying patterns and types of changes, narrows down the addition...

Dell Technologies is the biggest candidate for inclusion in the S&P 500 with forecasted demand of ~$7bn and ~4 days of volume. Uncertainty arises...

Holcim plans to spin-off and list its North American business in the US, which should be value accretive and could result in a 25.7% upside.