IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> has entered into a SID with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> at A$28.25 per share, a 49.3% premium to the undisturbed price (5 August).</li>
<li>The offer price is attractive. The key conditions are shareholder and regulatory (Brazil and Vietnam) approvals. The scheme meeting is in late March/early April 2023. </li>
<li>The key risk is the rise in copper prices. At last close and for the end-April payment, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 1.6% and 4.8%, respectively.</li>
</ul>



OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) has entered into a SID with BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) at A$28.25 per share, a 49.3% premium to the undisturbed price (5 August).
The offer price is attractive. The key conditions are shareholder and regulatory (Brazil and Vietnam) approvals. The scheme meeting is in late March/early April 2023. 
The key risk is the rise in copper prices. At last close and for the end-April payment, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 1.6% and 4.8%, respectively.


OZ Minerals (OZL AU)’s SID with BHP at A$28.25

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> has received a revised non-binding indicative offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> at A$28.25 per share, a 13.0% premium to the previously rejected offer.</li>
<li>The Board has granted four weeks of due diligence and intends to recommend a binding offer at A$28.25 per share, in the absence of a superior proposal.</li>
<li>While the offer is below the rumoured Board's target of a A$30 offer, it is still attractive. At the last close, the gross spread to the offer is 3.3%.</li>
</ul>



OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) has received a revised non-binding indicative offer from BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) at A$28.25 per share, a 13.0% premium to the previously rejected offer.
The Board has granted four weeks of due diligence and intends to recommend a binding offer at A$28.25 per share, in the absence of a superior proposal.
While the offer is below the rumoured Board's target of a A$30 offer, it is still attractive. At the last close, the gross spread to the offer is 3.3%.


OZ Minerals (OZL AU)’s A$28.25 Non-Binding Offer from BHP

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-17/oz-minerals-said-to-hold-out-for-a-10-billion-in-potential-sale?leadSource=uverify%20wall" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg reported</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> has been considering raising its bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a>. OZ is pushing BHP to increase its offer to A$30. </li>
<li>The OZ Board has a strong justification for a higher offer as BHP’s acquisition of OZ would tick the boxes of future-facing commodities and potential operational synergies.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> recently increased its bid to minority shareholders of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/turquoise-hill-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25405:1" rel="noopener">Turquoise Hill Resources (TRQ CN)</a>. This increases the probability that BHP will return with a sweetened offer.</li>
</ul>



Bloomberg reported that BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) has been considering raising its bid for OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU). OZ is pushing BHP to increase its offer to A$30. 
The OZ Board has a strong justification for a higher offer as BHP’s acquisition of OZ would tick the boxes of future-facing commodities and potential operational synergies.

Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) recently increased its bid to minority shareholders of Turquoise Hill Resources (TRQ CN). This increases the probability that BHP will return with a sweetened offer.


OZ Minerals Could Get an Improved Offer from BHP

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction.</li>
<li>We still believe a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows -- or even an undercut.</li>
<li>With that said, we continue to see attractive and actionable setups, primarily within cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, and Financials).</li>
</ul>


We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction.
We still believe a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows -- or even an undercut.
With that said, we continue to see attractive and actionable setups, primarily within cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, and Financials).


Encouraging Signs, But Concerns Still Outweigh; Buying Materials, Energy, Industrials, Health Care

<ul>
<li>Market dynamics remain largely constructive and we are now seeing meaningful improvement within emerging markets (EEM-US) as the Hang Seng index displays bullish price and relative strength (RS) reversals.</li>
<li>Brent and WTI crude oil are hitting 8-year highs, base metals are bullishly inflecting, and critical supports are holding on the broad global indexes.</li>
<li>Sticking with the theme from last week when we recommended Energy and Financials, two more Sectors that stand to benefit from rising rates include Materials and Industrials/Manufacturing -- add exposure.</li>
</ul>


Market dynamics remain largely constructive and we are now seeing meaningful improvement within emerging markets (EEM-US) as the Hang Seng index displays bullish price and relative strength (RS) reversals.
Brent and WTI crude oil are hitting 8-year highs, base metals are bullishly inflecting, and critical supports are holding on the broad global indexes.
Sticking with the theme from last week when we recommended Energy and Financials, two more Sectors that stand to benefit from rising rates include Materials and Industrials/Manufacturing -- add exposure.


Sticking With Value; Buying Materials & Industrials

Canada

Capstone Copper Corp. operates as a mining company. The Company focuses on exploration and production of copper and silver metals. Capstone Copper offers its services in Canada, the United States, Mexico, and Chile.

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Capstone Copper (CS CN)

OZ Minerals (OZL AU)’s SID with BHP at A$28.25

This is a done deal barring a dramatic increase in copper prices. At the last close and for the end-April payment, the annualised spread is 4.8%.

Arun George

OZ Minerals (OZL AU)’s A$28.25 Non-Binding Offer from BHP

While the offer is below the rumoured Board's target of a A$30 offer, it is still attractive. At the last close, the gross spread to the offer is...

Arun George

OZ Minerals Could Get an Improved Offer from BHP

Bloomberg reported that BHP has been considering raising its bid. The OZ Board has a strong justification for a higher offer. The shares are...

Arun George

Encouraging Signs, But Concerns Still Outweigh; Buying Materials, Energy, Industrials, Health Care

We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction. Still, cyclical value remains...

Vermilion Research

Sticking With Value; Buying Materials & Industrials

Sticking with the theme from last week when we recommended Energy and Financials, two more Sectors that stand to benefit from rising rates include...

Vermilion Research

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