Lakshmi Iyer, CFA

Credit

This is a short relative value note examining an opportunity in the SGD bond market. We assign a Sell rating on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ascendas-real-estate-investment-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39:1" rel="noopener">Ascendas Real Estate Investment Trust (AREIT SP)</a> 4.75% perpetuals because we find better value in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dbs-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22:1" rel="noopener">DBS Group Holdings (DBS SP)</a>  3.98% perpetuals. The Ascendas bonds trade around 50bps tighter than the DBS perpetuals despite being rated one notch below the latter, if we assume that the Ascendas bonds will not be called. <div class="content-highlight">Fundamental credit research focused on Asian high yield, including coverage of areas which are generally overlooked such as Indian finance companies and select non-USD denominated credit.  Sector agnostic. Research process consists of rigorous bottom-up company analysis combined with spotting market dislocations to provide trade ideas.</div>

This is a short relative value note examining an opportunity in the SGD bond market. We assign a Sell rating on the Ascendas Real Estate Investment Trust (AREIT SP) 4.75% perpetuals because we find better value in the DBS Group Holdings (DBS SP)  3.98% perpetuals. The Ascendas bonds trade around 50bps tighter than the DBS perpetuals despite being rated one notch below the latter, if we assume that the Ascendas bonds will not be called. Fundamental credit research focused on Asian high yield, including coverage of areas which are generally overlooked such as Indian finance companies and select non-USD denominated credit.  Sector agnostic. Research process consists of rigorous bottom-up company analysis combined with spotting market dislocations to provide trade ideas.

Relative Value - SGD Bonds - Ascendas Vs DBS Perpetuals

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

Equity Bottom-Up

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<ul>
<li>
Temasek’s portfolio had a net value of S$313 billion as at its 31 March 2019 financial year-end. The portfolio comprises at least 25 listings on SGX, including 15 companies and 10 trusts with a combined market cap of more than S$200 billion. 
	 </li>
	<li>
The five constituents in Temasek’s portfolio with the highest 10Y annualised returns were: Mapletree Logistics Trust (+14.6%), Ascendas REIT (+10.8%), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (+8.7%), DBS Group Holdings (+6.4%) and Keppel REIT (+6.2%). They averaged a 10Y annualised total return of 9.3% 
	 </li>
	<li>Mapletree Logistics Trust was also the best performer in the 2020 YTD with a 3.2% return. The trust was amongst the S-REITs that saw the highest net institutional inflows in the YTD.</li>
</ul>
 
Temasek’s portfolio had a net value of S$313 billion as at its 31 March 2019 financial year-end. The portfolio is well diversified with financial services, Telecommunications,Media &amp; Technology accounting for majority at 25% and 20 % respectively. The portfolio, with 26% exposure to Singapore, consists of at least 25 listings on SGX, including 15 companies and 10 trusts with a combined market capitalisation of more than S$200 billion. Singtel, DBS and Mapletree Investments Pte Ltd accounted for the portfolio’s biggest names at 8%,6% and 5% respectively. For a previously published Market Update on the highlights of Temasek’s SGX-listed investments for financial year ended 31 March 2019, click <a href="https://www2.sgx.com/research-education/market-updates/20190924-highlights-temaseks-sgx-listed-investments">here</a>.

The five constituents in Temasek’s portfolio with the highest annualised returns over the last 10 years were four REITs and one stock: Mapletree Logistics Trust (+14.6%), Ascendas REIT (+10.8%), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (+8.7%), DBS Group Holdings (+6.4%) and Keppel REIT (+6.2%). The five, which have a combined market cap of more than S$70 billion, averaged a 10Y annualised total return of 9.3%.
</body></html>

<figure>
 <img src='https://api2.sgx.com/sites/default/files/2020-05/TLC_0.png' alt='Temasek Linked Stocks' />
 </figure>
 <div class='content-caption'>Temasek Linked Stocks</div>
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Mapletree Logistics Trust – which clocked the highest 10Y annualised total return – was also the best performer in the 2020 year-to-date with a 3.2% return. The trust was amongst the S-REITs that saw the highest net institutional inflows in the YTD.

S-REITs, which have a combined market value of S$90 billion, make up more than 10% of the market cap of Singapore listings. Growing investor participation in recent years has seen REITs contributing more than 20% to daily turnover in the YTD.

The table below details the 15 companies and 10 trusts in Temasek’s portfolio listed on SGX, sorted by 10Y annualised returns.

<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>
			Name
			</td>
			<td>
			SGX Code
			</td>
			<td>
			Market Cap (S$ billion)
			</td>
			<td>
			Annualised Total Return 10Y (%)
			</td>
			<td>
			Annualised Total Return 5Y (%)
			</td>
			<td>
			Total Return YTD (%)
			</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td>
			MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST
			</td>
			<td>
			M44U
			</td>
			<td>
			6.7
			</td>
			<td>
			14.6
			</td>
			<td>
			14.5
			</td>
			<td>
			3.2
			</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td>
			ASCENDAS REIT
			</td>
			<td>
			A17U
			</td>
			<td>
			10.5
			</td>
			<td>
			10.8
			</td>
			<td>
			9.9
			</td>
			<td>
			-1.1
			</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td>
			CAPITALAND COMM TRUST
			</td>
			<td>
			C61U
			</td>
			<td>
			6.0
			</td>
			<td>
			8.7
			</td>
			<td>
			4.4
			</td>
			<td>
			-19.6
			</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td>
			DBS GROUP HOLDINGS
			</td>
			<td>
			D05
			</td>
			<td>
			49.0
			</td>
			<td>
			6.4
			</td>
			<td>
			2.2
			</td>
			<td>
			-25.8
			</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td>
			KEPPEL REIT
			</td>
			<td>
			K71U
			</td>
			<td>
			3.6
			</td>
			<td>
			6.2
			</td>
			<td>
			2.4
			</td>
			<td>
			-13.0
			</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td>
			SATS LTD
			</td>
			<td>
			S58
			</td>
			<td>
			3.4
			</td>
			<td>
			5.8
			</td>
			<td>
			2.9
			</td>
			<td>
			-39.3
			</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td>
			SINGAPORE EXCHANGE
			</td>
			<td>
			S68
			</td>
			<td>
			10.4
			</td>
			<td>
			5.8
			</td>
			<td>
			6.9
			</td>
			<td>
			11.0
			</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td>
			ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST
			</td>
			<td>
			A68U
			</td>
			<td>
			2.7
			</td>
			<td>
			4.6
			</td>
			<td>
			-0.2
			</td>
			<td>
			-33.8
			</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td>
			ST ENGINEERING
			</td>
			<td>
			S63
			</td>
			<td>
			10.2
			</td>
			<td>
			4.6
			</td>
			<td>
			2.1
			</td>
			<td>
			-16.5
			</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td>
			CAPITALAND MALL TRUST
			</td>
			<td>
			C38U
			</td>
			<td>
			6.7
			</td>
			<td>
			4.5
			</td>
			<td>
			1.4
			</td>
			<td>
			-25.1
			</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td>
			SINGTEL LTD
			</td>
			<td>
			Z74
			</td>
			<td>
			45.5
			</td>
			<td>
			4.4
			</td>
			<td>
			-4.1
			</td>
			<td>
			-16.9
			</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td>
			STARHUB LTD
			</td>
			<td>
			CC3
			</td>
			<td>
			2.5
			</td>
			<td>
			1.2
			</td>
			<td>
			-14.2
			</td>
			<td>
			2.1
			</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td>
			KEPPEL CORPORATION
			</td>
			<td>
			BN4
			</td>
			<td>
			10.9
			</td>
			<td>
			0.4
			</td>
			<td>
			-4.3
			</td>
			<td>
			-11.8
			</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td>
			CAPITALAND LTD
			</td>
			<td>
			C31
			</td>
			<td>
			15.2
			</td>
			<td>
			0.1
			</td>
			<td>
			-1.7
			</td>
			<td>
			-20.8
			</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td>
			SINGAPORE POST
			</td>
			<td>
			S08
			</td>
			<td>
			1.6
			</td>
			<td>
			-0.2
			</td>
			<td>
			-15.0
			</td>
			<td>
			-23.1
			</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td>
			SIA ENGINEERING
			</td>
			<td>
			S59
			</td>
			<td>
			2.1
			</td>
			<td>
			-2.1
			</td>
			<td>
			-11.6
			</td>
			<td>
			-34.4
			</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td>
			OLAM INTL
			</td>
			<td>
			O32
			</td>
			<td>
			4.8
			</td>
			<td>
			-3.0
			</td>
			<td>
			-3.1
			</td>
			<td>
			-18.2
			</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td>
			SINGAPORE AIRLINES
			</td>
			<td>
			C6L
			</td>
			<td>
			7.3
			</td>
			<td>
			-5.4
			</td>
			<td>
			-10.2
			</td>
			<td>
			-32.6
			</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td>
			SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES
			</td>
			<td>
			U96
			</td>
			<td>
			2.8
			</td>
			<td>
			-6.7
			</td>
			<td>
			-16.8
			</td>
			<td>
			-31.0
			</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td>
			SEMBCORP MARINE
			</td>
			<td>
			S51
			</td>
			<td>
			1.5
			</td>
			<td>
			-13.9
			</td>
			<td>
			-23.4
			</td>
			<td>
			-43.9
			</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td>
			MAPLETREE COMM TRUST
			</td>
			<td>
			N2IU
			</td>
			<td>
			6.2
			</td>
			<td>
			NA
			</td>
			<td>
			10.0
			</td>
			<td>
			-20.3
			</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td>
			MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
			</td>
			<td>
			ME8U
			</td>
			<td>
			5.5
			</td>
			<td>
			NA
			</td>
			<td>
			16.0
			</td>
			<td>
			-1.5
			</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td>
			MAPLETREE N ASIA COMM TRUST
			</td>
			<td>
			RW0U
			</td>
			<td>
			3.0
			</td>
			<td>
			NA
			</td>
			<td>
			3.2
			</td>
			<td>
			-21.5
			</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td>
			NETLINK NBN TRUST
			</td>
			<td>
			CJLU
			</td>
			<td>
			3.8
			</td>
			<td>
			NA
			</td>
			<td>
			NA
			</td>
			<td>
			3.7
			</td>
		</tr>
<tr>
<td>
			HUTCHISON PORT HLDGS TRUST
			</td>
			<td>
			NS8U
			</td>
			<td>
			1.6
			</td>
			<td>
			NA
			</td>
			<td>
			-21.1
			</td>
			<td>
			-22.5
			</td>
		</tr>
</tbody></table>
 Source: Bloomberg &amp; SGX (data as of 29 Apr 2020)
</body></html>





Temasek’s portfolio had a net value of S$313 billion as at its 31 March 2019 financial year-end. The portfolio comprises at least 25 listings on SGX, including 15 companies and 10 trusts with a combined market cap of more than S$200 billion. 
	 
	
The five constituents in Temasek’s portfolio with the highest 10Y annualised returns were: Mapletree Logistics Trust (+14.6%), Ascendas REIT (+10.8%), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (+8.7%), DBS Group Holdings (+6.4%) and Keppel REIT (+6.2%). They averaged a 10Y annualised total return of 9.3% 
	 
	Mapletree Logistics Trust was also the best performer in the 2020 YTD with a 3.2% return. The trust was amongst the S-REITs that saw the highest net institutional inflows in the YTD.

 
Temasek’s portfolio had a net value of S$313 billion as at its 31 March 2019 financial year-end. The portfolio is well diversified with financial services, Telecommunications,Media &amp; Technology accounting for majority at 25% and 20 % respectively. The portfolio, with 26% exposure to Singapore, consists of at least 25 listings on SGX, including 15 companies and 10 trusts with a combined market capitalisation of more than S$200 billion. Singtel, DBS and Mapletree Investments Pte Ltd accounted for the portfolio’s biggest names at 8%,6% and 5% respectively. For a previously published Market Update on the highlights of Temasek’s SGX-listed investments for financial year ended 31 March 2019, click here.

The five constituents in Temasek’s portfolio with the highest annualised returns over the last 10 years were four REITs and one stock: Mapletree Logistics Trust (+14.6%), Ascendas REIT (+10.8%), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (+8.7%), DBS Group Holdings (+6.4%) and Keppel REIT (+6.2%). The five, which have a combined market cap of more than S$70 billion, averaged a 10Y annualised total return of 9.3%.



      
    
    Temasek Linked Stocks


Mapletree Logistics Trust – which clocked the highest 10Y annualised total return – was also the best performer in the 2020 year-to-date with a 3.2% return. The trust was amongst the S-REITs that saw the highest net institutional inflows in the YTD.

S-REITs, which have a combined market value of S$90 billion, make up more than 10% of the market cap of Singapore listings. Growing investor participation in recent years has seen REITs contributing more than 20% to daily turnover in the YTD.

The table below details the 15 companies and 10 trusts in Temasek’s portfolio listed on SGX, sorted by 10Y annualised returns.




			Name
			
			
			SGX Code
			
			
			Market Cap (S$ billion)
			
			
			Annualised Total Return 10Y (%)
			
			
			Annualised Total Return 5Y (%)
			
			
			Total Return YTD (%)
			
		


			MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST
			
			
			M44U
			
			
			6.7
			
			
			14.6
			
			
			14.5
			
			
			3.2
			
		


			ASCENDAS REIT
			
			
			A17U
			
			
			10.5
			
			
			10.8
			
			
			9.9
			
			
			-1.1
			
		


			CAPITALAND COMM TRUST
			
			
			C61U
			
			
			6.0
			
			
			8.7
			
			
			4.4
			
			
			-19.6
			
		


			DBS GROUP HOLDINGS
			
			
			D05
			
			
			49.0
			
			
			6.4
			
			
			2.2
			
			
			-25.8
			
		


			KEPPEL REIT
			
			
			K71U
			
			
			3.6
			
			
			6.2
			
			
			2.4
			
			
			-13.0
			
		


			SATS LTD
			
			
			S58
			
			
			3.4
			
			
			5.8
			
			
			2.9
			
			
			-39.3
			
		


			SINGAPORE EXCHANGE
			
			
			S68
			
			
			10.4
			
			
			5.8
			
			
			6.9
			
			
			11.0
			
		


			ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST
			
			
			A68U
			
			
			2.7
			
			
			4.6
			
			
			-0.2
			
			
			-33.8
			
		


			ST ENGINEERING
			
			
			S63
			
			
			10.2
			
			
			4.6
			
			
			2.1
			
			
			-16.5
			
		


			CAPITALAND MALL TRUST
			
			
			C38U
			
			
			6.7
			
			
			4.5
			
			
			1.4
			
			
			-25.1
			
		


			SINGTEL LTD
			
			
			Z74
			
			
			45.5
			
			
			4.4
			
			
			-4.1
			
			
			-16.9
			
		


			STARHUB LTD
			
			
			CC3
			
			
			2.5
			
			
			1.2
			
			
			-14.2
			
			
			2.1
			
		


			KEPPEL CORPORATION
			
			
			BN4
			
			
			10.9
			
			
			0.4
			
			
			-4.3
			
			
			-11.8
			
		


			CAPITALAND LTD
			
			
			C31
			
			
			15.2
			
			
			0.1
			
			
			-1.7
			
			
			-20.8
			
		


			SINGAPORE POST
			
			
			S08
			
			
			1.6
			
			
			-0.2
			
			
			-15.0
			
			
			-23.1
			
		


			SIA ENGINEERING
			
			
			S59
			
			
			2.1
			
			
			-2.1
			
			
			-11.6
			
			
			-34.4
			
		


			OLAM INTL
			
			
			O32
			
			
			4.8
			
			
			-3.0
			
			
			-3.1
			
			
			-18.2
			
		


			SINGAPORE AIRLINES
			
			
			C6L
			
			
			7.3
			
			
			-5.4
			
			
			-10.2
			
			
			-32.6
			
		


			SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES
			
			
			U96
			
			
			2.8
			
			
			-6.7
			
			
			-16.8
			
			
			-31.0
			
		


			SEMBCORP MARINE
			
			
			S51
			
			
			1.5
			
			
			-13.9
			
			
			-23.4
			
			
			-43.9
			
		


			MAPLETREE COMM TRUST
			
			
			N2IU
			
			
			6.2
			
			
			NA
			
			
			10.0
			
			
			-20.3
			
		


			MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
			
			
			ME8U
			
			
			5.5
			
			
			NA
			
			
			16.0
			
			
			-1.5
			
		


			MAPLETREE N ASIA COMM TRUST
			
			
			RW0U
			
			
			3.0
			
			
			NA
			
			
			3.2
			
			
			-21.5
			
		


			NETLINK NBN TRUST
			
			
			CJLU
			
			
			3.8
			
			
			NA
			
			
			NA
			
			
			3.7
			
		


			HUTCHISON PORT HLDGS TRUST
			
			
			NS8U
			
			
			1.6
			
			
			NA
			
			
			-21.1
			
			
			-22.5
			
		

 Source: Bloomberg &amp; SGX (data as of 29 Apr 2020)



Best-Performing Temasek-Linked Stocks in Past Decade

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Mapletree Industrial Trust / Equity Bottom-Up

<div>
In my previous few insights, I've looked at the office, retail and industrial sectors in Singapore and provided my views on what did and didn't look attractive. 
In this insight, I'll look at how the trade has been shaping up so far and touch upon <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mapletree-industrial-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40:1" rel="noopener">Mapletree Industrial Trust (MINT SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10934:1" rel="noopener">ESR-REIT (EREIT SP)</a> results.
</div><div>Links to my previous REITs insights:</div><div><ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-reits-what-s-been-cooking-this-year" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Singapore REITs - What’s Been Cooking This Year,</a> I spoke about how the REITs have performed this year and touched upon some of the factors that have been driving them. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/trade-ideas-for-sgreits-retail-reits-share-price-has-been-more-resilient-than-it-should-be" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Trade Ideas for SGREITs - Retail REITs Share Price Has Been More Resilient than It Should Be,</a> I spoke about the factors that have been impacting retail REITs. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/trade-ideas-sg-office-reits-this-time-it-s-different" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Trade Ideas SG Office REITs - This Time It’s Different</a> I spoke about how the office REITs might fare better.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/trade-ideas-sg-industrial-reits-bigger-names-have-been-holding-up-a-little-too-well" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Trade Ideas SG Industrial REITs - Bigger Names Have Been Holding up a Little Too Well </a> I spoke about the industrial REITs</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-reits-get-out-of-jail-free-card-for-the-tenants" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Singapore REITs - Get Out of Jail Free Card, for the Tenants</a> I spoke about how the recent changes announced by the government would benefit the smaller tenants more than the landlords.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/trade-ideas-sg-eu-us-focus-reits-the-orphaned-lot-is-starting-to-look-interesting" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Trade Ideas SG EU/​US Focus REITs - The Orphaned Lot Is Starting to Look Interesting</a> I spoke about how the EU/US focussed REITs are trading wider than their SG and US listed peers</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/trade-ideas-for-sgreits-update-on-office-vs-retail-trade-up-8-so-far" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Trade Ideas for SGREITs - Update on Office Vs Retail Trade, up 8% so Far</a> I spoke about the recent updates impacting the REITs and implications of Suntec Results</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/trade-ideas-for-sgreits-more-updates-on-office-vs-retail-trade-from-kreit-and-mct-results" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Trade Ideas for SGREITs - More Updates on Office Vs Retail Trade from KREIT and MCT Results</a> I spoke about KREIT and MCT results</li>
</ul></div>


In my previous few insights, I've looked at the office, retail and industrial sectors in Singapore and provided my views on what did and didn't look attractive. 
In this insight, I'll look at how the trade has been shaping up so far and touch upon Mapletree Industrial Trust (MINT SP) and ESR-REIT (EREIT SP) results.
Links to my previous REITs insights:

Singapore REITs - What’s Been Cooking This Year, I spoke about how the REITs have performed this year and touched upon some of the factors that have been driving them. 

Trade Ideas for SGREITs - Retail REITs Share Price Has Been More Resilient than It Should Be, I spoke about the factors that have been impacting retail REITs. 

Trade Ideas SG Office REITs - This Time It’s Different I spoke about how the office REITs might fare better.

Trade Ideas SG Industrial REITs - Bigger Names Have Been Holding up a Little Too Well  I spoke about the industrial REITs

Singapore REITs - Get Out of Jail Free Card, for the Tenants I spoke about how the recent changes announced by the government would benefit the smaller tenants more than the landlords.

Trade Ideas SG EU/​US Focus REITs - The Orphaned Lot Is Starting to Look Interesting I spoke about how the EU/US focussed REITs are trading wider than their SG and US listed peers

Trade Ideas for SGREITs - Update on Office Vs Retail Trade, up 8% so Far I spoke about the recent updates impacting the REITs and implications of Suntec Results

Trade Ideas for SGREITs - More Updates on Office Vs Retail Trade from KREIT and MCT Results I spoke about KREIT and MCT results


Trade Ideas SGREITs - Office Vs Retail Vs Industrial, up 16% so Far

CapitaLand Ascendas REIT / Equity Bottom-Up





Keppel DC REIT, Mapletree Logistics Trust &amp; Parkway Life REIT have generated gains in the 2020 YTD, leading the overall S-REIT Sector which has averaged a 22% decline over the period, with an average 38% decline to 23 March, and an average 28% gain from 23 March to 27 April.  
	 
	
Keppel DC REIT, Mapletree Logistics Trust &amp; Parkway Life REIT are also amongst the 22 S-REITs that report more than a third of their revenue to Singapore. Of the 22 S-REITs, 14 have been listed for the past 10 years with average annualised total returns of 7%.   
	 
	
In line with its capital recycling strategy and in order to realise profits that can be redeployed to capture new opportunities, Keppel T&amp;T has entered into a Sale and Purchase Agreement with a placement agent for the sale of 38 million units in Keppel DC REIT at S$2.42 per Sale Unit. 


 

With a combined market value of S$90 billion, S-REITs make up 11% of the market capitalisation of all stocks in Singapore. Growing investor participation in recent years has seen REITs contributing 29% of daily turnover in the 2020 year to 27 April.

The majority of the S-REIT market capitalisation and S$425 million in average daily turnover in the 2020 year to 27 April is made up of the 22 REITs or Stapled Trusts that report at least one-third of their revenue to Singapore.



      
    
    Revenue Exposure

There has been less distinction in the 2020 year-to-date total returns, with the 22 S-REITs that report more than a third of their revenue to Singapore seeing similar swings as the S-REITs that report less than a third to none of their revenue to Singapore. As illustrated below, the two genres of S-REITs saw similar declines in the 2020 year through to 23 March, and similar partial recoveries from 23 March to 27 April.


      
    
    Reits Revenue


For a more detailed breakdown of the S-REIT Sector, investors can refer to the SREIT &amp; Property Trusts Chartbook - April 2020 here.  

Trio of REITs that have Lodged Gains in 2020 YTD

The 22 S-REITs that report more than a third of their revenue to Singapore included the three strongest S-REITs in the 2020 year through to 27 April that bucked the global trend of declines.

Keppel DC REIT generated a 22.2% total return in the 2020 year through to 27 April, with Mapletree Logistics Trust (“MLT”) gaining 4.2% and Parkway Life REIT (“PLIFE REIT”) gaining 0.9%. Both Keppel DC REIT and MLT were amongst the three S-REITs that saw the highest net institutional inflows over the 17 weeks.

Keppel T&amp;T Realising Profits in Keppel DC REIT

In its 1QFY20 Key Business and Operational Update (click here), Keppel DC REIT reported its 1QFY20 (ended 31 Mar)  gross revenue rose 25.5% from 1QFY19.

Prior to the 28 April session, Keppel Corporation announced that Keppel Telecommunications &amp; Transportation (“Keppel T&amp;T”), through its indirect wholly-owned subsidiary, Keppel DC Investment Holdings had on 27 April 2020 entered into a sale and purchase agreement with Credit Suisse (Singapore) Limited as the placement agent for the sale of 38 million units in Keppel DC REIT.

These sales units represent approximately 2.33% of the total issued units in Keppel DC REIT, with a consideration of S$2.42 per sale unit. In line with the Group’s capital recycling strategy, the sale allows Keppel T&amp;T to realise profits that can be redeployed to capture new opportunities. As maintained in the announcement (click here) Keppel T&amp;T continues to be the single largest unitholder of Keppel DC REIT with a unitholding of 20.58%

Mapletree Logisitics Trust Performance Underpinned by Stable Operations &amp; Accretive Acquisition

On 23 April, MLT reported its FY19/20 (ended 31 Mar) DPU rose 2.5% from FY18/19 to 8.142 cents. The Managers of MLT maintained that currently most of its tenants across its eight markets are operational: In MLT’s top three core markets, for Hong Kong SAR ;and Japan, all tenants remain fully operational, while for Singapore about 5% of its tenant base is impacted.  The Managers added that there are strict government measures in certain markets, its tenants’ operations have remained largely intact:


Overall, tenants from the retail, hospitality and travel industries, which account for about 10% of MLT’s revenue, are the hardest hit by COVID-19; while
	Tenants who serve essential daily needs, such as food and beverage products, consumer staples and healthcare, continue to see healthy levels of activity, especially for the ecommerce operators. These sectors account for over 30% of MLT’s revenue.

For more details click here.

PLife REIT Reported Stable Performance Amidst COVID-19 Outbreak in 1Q20 

On 22 April, PLife REIT reported its DPU in 1QFY20 (ended 31 Mar) grew by 1.4% to 3.32 Singapore cents, from 3.28 Singapore cents in 1QFY19. Gross revenue rose 5.2% year-on-year (“Y-O-Y”) to S$29.9 million in 1Q 2020. Growth was largely attributed to additional revenue contribution from the three Japan properties acquired in 4QFY19, upward revision of the minimum guaranteed rent for Singapore hospitals by 1.61% as well as the appreciation of Japanese Yen (“JPY”). The Group also noted it is setting aside S$1.7 million to provide targeted assistance and support measures for affected tenants as needed. As part of PLife REIT’s ongoing efforts to strengthen its balance sheet through proactive debt management, the Group successfully secured a six-year up to S$82.0 million committed loan facility during the quarter. For more details click here. 
 

Singapore Focused S-REITs Average 10 year Annualised Total Returns of 7.4%

The 22 REITs that report more than a third of their revenue to Singapore are tabled below. While the 22 trusts have averaged a 20.8% decline in the 2020 year-to-date, the 14 trusts that have been listed for the full duration of 10 years have averaged annualised total returns of 7.4% for those 10 years. The 22 stocks have also been recipient of S$161 million in net institutional inflow in the 2020 year to 27 April, while overall, S-REITs have seen a combined  S$26 million in net institutional outflow over the period.




			REIT &amp; Stapled Trust with 1/3 revenue in Singapore
			
			
			Code
			
			
			Mkt Cap S$M
			
			
			Net Insti Inflow YTD (S$M)
			
			
			Total Return YTD %
			
			
			Total Return 31 Dec 19 - 23 Mar 20
			
			
			Total Return 23 Mar 20 - 27 Apr 20
			
			
			10 Year Annualised Total Return 

			%
			
		


			KEPPEL DC REIT
			
			
			AJBU
			
			
			4,115
			
			
			67
			
			
			22.2
			
			
			-4.0
			
			
			27.3
			
			
			N/A
			
		


			MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST
			
			
			M44U
			
			
			6,840
			
			
			68
			
			
			4.2
			
			
			-28.2
			
			
			45.2
			
			
			14.5
			
		


			PARKWAYLIFE REAL ESTATE
			
			
			C2PU
			
			
			2,009
			
			
			0
			
			
			0.9
			
			
			-16.4
			
			
			20.7
			
			
			15.2
			
		


			ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV TRT
			
			
			A17U
			
			
			10,203
			
			
			227
			
			
			-4.0
			
			
			-22.1
			
			
			23.1
			
			
			10.5
			
		


			MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
			
			
			ME8U
			
			
			5,370
			
			
			63
			
			
			-5.0
			
			
			-25.6
			
			
			27.7
			
			
			N/A
			
		


			KEPPEL REIT
			
			
			K71U
			
			
			3,650
			
			
			30
			
			
			-11.9
			
			
			-33.9
			
			
			33.3
			
			
			6.1
			
		


			AIMS APAC REIT
			
			
			O5RU
			
			
			820
			
			
			6
			
			
			-17.5
			
			
			-33.8
			
			
			24.7
			
			
			9.9
			
		


			FRASERS COMMERCIAL TRUST
			
			
			ND8U
			
			
			1,189
			
			
			12
			
			
			-20.5
			
			
			-41.3
			
			
			35.4
			
			
			13.1
			
		


			MAPLETREE COMMERCIAL TRUST
			
			
			N2IU
			
			
			5,987
			
			
			-41
			
			
			-23.7
			
			
			-31.7
			
			
			11.7
			
			
			N/A
			
		


			CAPITALAND COMMERCIAL TRUST
			
			
			C61U
			
			
			5,716
			
			
			30
			
			
			-24.2
			
			
			-29.4
			
			
			7.2
			
			
			8.2
			
		


			CACHE LOGISTICS TRUST
			
			
			K2LU
			
			
			558
			
			
			-4
			
			
			-26.6
			
			
			-48.7
			
			
			43.1
			
			
			1.7
			
		


			SPH REIT
			
			
			SK6U
			
			
			2,151
			
			
			-18
			
			
			-26.8
			
			
			-33.2
			
			
			9.5
			
			
			N/A
			
		


			SOILBUILD BUSINESS SPACE REIT
			
			
			SV3U
			
			
			461
			
			
			3
			
			
			-26.9
			
			
			-53.0
			
			
			55.6
			
			
			N/A
			
		


			FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST
			
			
			J69U
			
			
			2,239
			
			
			-2
			
			
			-28.1
			
			
			-34.6
			
			
			9.9
			
			
			9.7
			
		


			CAPITALAND MALL TRUST
			
			
			C38U
			
			
			6,347
			
			
			-94
			
			
			-29.2
			
			
			-33.7
			
			
			6.8
			
			
			4.1
			
		


			SUNTEC REIT
			
			
			T82U
			
			
			3,605
			
			
			-42
			
			
			-29.5
			
			
			-38.9
			
			
			15.3
			
			
			5.3
			
		


			SABANA SHARIAH COMP IND REIT
			
			
			M1GU
			
			
			332
			
			
			1
			
			
			-30.4
			
			
			-48.1
			
			
			34.0
			
			
			N/A
			
		


			OUE COMMERCIAL REIT
			
			
			TS0U
			
			
			2,076
			
			
			-14
			
			
			-30.4
			
			
			-46.7
			
			
			30.5
			
			
			N/A
			
		


			FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST*
			
			
			Q5T
			
			
			953
			
			
			-14
			
			
			-32.8
			
			
			-47.9
			
			
			28.9
			
			
			N/A
			
		


			STARHILL GLOBAL REIT
			
			
			P40U
			
			
			1,028
			
			
			-20
			
			
			-34.1
			
			
			-45.4
			
			
			20.5
			
			
			3.5
			
		


			ESR-REIT
			
			
			J91U
			
			
			1,104
			
			
			-21
			
			
			-39.6
			
			
			-54.0
			
			
			31.3
			
			
			3.0
			
		


			CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS*
			
			
			J85
			
			
			1,092
			
			
			-75
			
			
			-42.7
			
			
			-56.4
			
			
			31.4
			
			
			-0.9
			
		


			Average
			
			
			 
			
			
			 
			
			
			 
			
			
			-20.8
			
			
			-36.7
			
			
			26.1
			
			
			7.4
			
		

Source: SGX StockFacts, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters (Data as of 27 April 2020). Note this is based on revenue segmented to Singapore in the last FY.

 
The broader S-REIT performances are tabled below, with the table sort by the S-REITs with the highest average daily turnover in the 2020 year to 27 April.  




			All S-REITs (incl. REITs, Stapled Trusts* and Business Trusts**)
			
			
			Code
			
			
			Mkt Cap S$M
			
			
			Net Insti Inflow YTD (S$M)
			
			
			Total Return YTD %
			
			
			Total Return 31 Dec 19 - 23 Mar 20 %
			
			
			Total Return 23 Mar 20 - 27 Apr 20

			%
			
			
			10 Year Annualised Total Return 

			%
			
		


			ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV TRT
			
			
			A17U
			
			
			10,203
			
			
			227
			
			
			-4.0
			
			
			-22.1
			
			
			23.1
			
			
			10
			
		


			CAPITALAND MALL TRUST
			
			
			C38U
			
			
			6,347
			
			
			-94
			
			
			-29.2
			
			
			-33.7
			
			
			6.8
			
			
			4
			
		


			MAPLETREE COMMERCIAL TRUST
			
			
			N2IU
			
			
			5,987
			
			
			-41
			
			
			-23.7
			
			
			-31.7
			
			
			11.7
			
			
			N/A
			
		


			MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST
			
			
			M44U
			
			
			6,840
			
			
			68
			
			
			4.2
			
			
			-28.2
			
			
			45.2
			
			
			15
			
		


			CAPITALAND COMMERCIAL TRUST
			
			
			C61U
			
			
			5,716
			
			
			30
			
			
			-24.2
			
			
			-29.4
			
			
			7.2
			
			
			8
			
		


			MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
			
			
			ME8U
			
			
			5,370
			
			
			63
			
			
			-5.0
			
			
			-25.6
			
			
			27.7
			
			
			N/A
			
		


			SUNTEC REIT
			
			
			T82U
			
			
			3,605
			
			
			-42
			
			
			-29.5
			
			
			-38.9
			
			
			15.3
			
			
			5
			
		


			KEPPEL DC REIT
			
			
			AJBU
			
			
			4,115
			
			
			67
			
			
			22.2
			
			
			-4.0
			
			
			27.3
			
			
			N/A
			
		


			MAPLETREE NORTH ASIA COM TRUST
			
			
			RW0U
			
			
			2,827
			
			
			-9
			
			
			-22.8
			
			
			-38.7
			
			
			25.9
			
			
			N/A
			
		


			FRASERS LOGISTICS &amp; INDUSTRIAL
			
			
			BUOU
			
			
			2,228
			
			
			28
			
			
			-20.6
			
			
			-46.4
			
			
			48.1
			
			
			N/A
			
		


			KEPPEL REIT
			
			
			K71U
			
			
			3,650
			
			
			30
			
			
			-11.9
			
			
			-33.9
			
			
			33.3
			
			
			6
			
		


			ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST*
			
			
			HMN
			
			
			2,565
			
			
			-35
			
			
			-35.6
			
			
			-46.8
			
			
			21.2
			
			
			4
			
		


			FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST
			
			
			J69U
			
			
			2,239
			
			
			-2
			
			
			-28.1
			
			
			-34.6
			
			
			9.9
			
			
			10
			
		


			ESR-REIT
			
			
			J91U
			
			
			1,104
			
			
			-21
			
			
			-39.6
			
			
			-54.0
			
			
			31.3
			
			
			3
			
		


			CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS*
			
			
			J85
			
			
			1,092
			
			
			-75
			
			
			-42.7
			
			
			-56.4
			
			
			31.4
			
			
			-1
			
		


			MANULIFE US REIT
			
			
			BTOU
			
			
			1,561
			
			
			-3
			
			
			-25.0
			
			
			-39.0
			
			
			22.8
			
			
			N/A
			
		


			CAPITALAND RETAIL CHINA TRUST
			
			
			AU8U
			
			
			1,626
			
			
			-38
			
			
			-15.4
			
			
			-37.4
			
			
			35.0
			
			
			8
			
		


			CROMWELL EUROPEAN REIT
			
			
			CNNU
			
			
			1,472
			
			
			1
			
			
			-26.7
			
			
			-42.1
			
			
			26.8
			
			
			N/A
			
		


			LENDLEASE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL
			
			
			JYEU
			
			
			643
			
			
			-50
			
			
			-40.0
			
			
			-41.6
			
			
			2.8
			
			
			N/A
			
		


			FRASERS COMMERCIAL TRUST
			
			
			ND8U
			
			
			1,189
			
			
			12
			
			
			-20.5
			
			
			-41.3
			
			
			35.4
			
			
			13
			
		


			SPH REIT
			
			
			SK6U
			
			
			2,151
			
			
			-18
			
			
			-26.8
			
			
			-33.2
			
			
			9.5
			
			
			N/A
			
		


			SASSEUR REIT
			
			
			CRPU
			
			
			851
			
			
			-22
			
			
			-18.1
			
			
			-35.4
			
			
			26.8
			
			
			N/A
			
		


			PARKWAYLIFE REIT
			
			
			C2PU
			
			
			2,009
			
			
			0
			
			
			0.9
			
			
			-16.4
			
			
			20.7
			
			
			15
			
		


			ASCENDAS INDIA TRUST**
			
			
			CY6U
			
			
			1,398
			
			
			6
			
			
			-21.0
			
			
			-35.3
			
			
			22.0
			
			
			9
			
		


			KEPPEL PACIFIC OAK US REIT
			
			
			CMOU
			
			
			764
			
			
			-13
			
			
			-21.1
			
			
			-38.7
			
			
			28.7
			
			
			N/A
			
		


			AIMS APAC REIT
			
			
			O5RU
			
			
			820
			
			
			6
			
			
			-17.5
			
			
			-33.8
			
			
			24.7
			
			
			10
			
		


			PRIME US REIT
			
			
			OXMU
			
			
			1,015
			
			
			-3
			
			
			-22.7
			
			
			-38.7
			
			
			26.2
			
			
			N/A
			
		


			FIRST REAL ESTATE INVT TRUST
			
			
			AW9U
			
			
			624
			
			
			-18
			
			
			-19.9
			
			
			-41.0
			
			
			35.7
			
			
			9
			
		


			FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST*
			
			
			Q5T
			
			
			953
			
			
			-14
			
			
			-32.8
			
			
			-47.9
			
			
			28.9
			
			
			N/A
			
		


			STARHILL GLOBAL REIT
			
			
			P40U
			
			
			1,028
			
			
			-20
			
			
			-34.1
			
			
			-45.4
			
			
			20.5
			
			
			4
			
		


			IREIT GLOBAL
			
			
			UD1U
			
			
			415
			
			
			-4
			
			
			-17.2
			
			
			-47.2
			
			
			56.6
			
			
			N/A
			
		


			OUE COMMERCIAL REIT
			
			
			TS0U
			
			
			2,076
			
			
			-14
			
			
			-30.4
			
			
			-46.7
			
			
			30.5
			
			
			N/A
			
		


			CACHE LOGISTICS TRUST
			
			
			K2LU
			
			
			558
			
			
			-4
			
			
			-26.6
			
			
			-48.7
			
			
			43.1
			
			
			2
			
		


			EAGLE HOSPITALITY TRUST*
			
			
			LIW
			
			
			170
			
			
			-9
			
			
			-73.5
			
			
			-72.7
			
			
			-2.6
			
			
			N/A
			
		


			LIPPO MALLS INDONESIA RETAIL
			
			
			D5IU
			
			
			416
			
			
			-9
			
			
			-35.4
			
			
			-51.7
			
			
			34.0
			
			
			-2
			
		


			EC WORLD REIT
			
			
			BWCU
			
			
			522
			
			
			-12
			
			
			-10.6
			
			
			-39.5
			
			
			47.7
			
			
			N/A
			
		


			ELITE COMMERCIAL REIT
			
			
			MXNU
			
			
			389
			
			
			3
			
			
			0.0
			
			
			0.0
			
			
			28.7
			
			
			N/A
			
		


			SOILBUILD BUSINESS SPACE REIT
			
			
			SV3U
			
			
			461
			
			
			3
			
			
			-26.9
			
			
			-53.0
			
			
			55.6
			
			
			N/A
			
		


			FRASERS HOSPITALITY TRUST*
			
			
			ACV
			
			
			907
			
			
			-5
			
			
			-33.1
			
			
			-50.7
			
			
			35.7
			
			
			N/A
			
		


			SABANA SHARIAH COMP IND REIT
			
			
			M1GU
			
			
			332
			
			
			1
			
			
			-30.4
			
			
			-48.1
			
			
			34.0
			
			
			N/A
			
		


			UNITED HAMPSHIRE US REIT
			
			
			ODBU
			
			
			437
			
			
			-2
			
			
			0.0
			
			
			0.0
			
			
			29.5
			
			
			N/A
			
		


			ARA US HOSPITALITY TRUST*
			
			
			XZL
			
			
			342
			
			
			5
			
			
			-45.7
			
			
			-58.0
			
			
			29.4
			
			
			N/A
			
		


			DASIN RETAIL TRUST**
			
			
			CEDU
			
			
			519
			
			
			1
			
			
			-1.7
			
			
			-2.4
			
			
			0.6
			
			
			N/A
			
		


			BHG RETAIL REIT
			
			
			BMGU
			
			
			311
			
			
			0
			
			
			-8.2
			
			
			-33.8
			
			
			38.6
			
			
			N/A
			
		


			Average
			
			
			 
			
			
			 
			
			
			 
			
			
			-22.1
			
			
			-37.4
			
			
			27.1
			
			
			6.9
			
		

 Source: SGX StockFacts, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters (Data as of 27 April 2020)



Keppel DC REIT, MLT & PLife REIT Lodge Gains in 2020 YTD

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Singapore Air today released a long <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/SIA%20Rights%20Issue%20-%20Presentation%20Slides%20200420.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=607355" target="_blank" rel="noopener">presentation</a> regarding the condition of the company, and the industry within the context of the sharp decline in traffic due to measures taken to reduce the spread of the global covid-19 pandemic. It is well worth a read for both current shareholders and those who would look at becoming shareholders or participating in the Rights Shares or Rights MCB Entitlements trading once they go ex- on 7 May 2020. Because it is such a large event - a 3:2 rights offering increases shares outstanding by 150% - and there are many moving parts (shares, rights going ex, rights trading, some rights for shares and some rights for non-shares), it behooves one to understand the index treatment and timing. So we dig in, and discuss below.

Singapore Air today released a long presentation regarding the condition of the company, and the industry within the context of the sharp decline in traffic due to measures taken to reduce the spread of the global covid-19 pandemic. It is well worth a read for both current shareholders and those who would look at becoming shareholders or participating in the Rights Shares or Rights MCB Entitlements trading once they go ex- on 7 May 2020. Because it is such a large event - a 3:2 rights offering increases shares outstanding by 150% - and there are many moving parts (shares, rights going ex, rights trading, some rights for shares and some rights for non-shares), it behooves one to understand the index treatment and timing. So we dig in, and discuss below.

Singapore Air Rights - The Index Treatment

Singapore

CapitaLand Ascendas REIT is an industrial real estate investment trust. The Trust invests in business and science park properties, integrated development, amenities, and retail (IDAR) properties, high-specifications industrial properties and data centers, light industrial and flatted factories, and logistics and distribution centers.

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CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (CLAR SP)

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Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Air Rights - The Index Treatment

Singapore Air today released a long presentation regarding the condition of the company, and the industry within the context of the sharp decline...

Travis Lundy

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