Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

DDMP REIT (DDMPR), a subsidiary of DoubleDragon Properties Corp (DDP), aims to raise up to US$275m in its Philippines listing.<div>DDMPR will be the second REIT listing in the Philippines. DDMPR’s investment strategy is to invest in income-generating real estate located in either Metro Manila or key provinces in the Philippines. It aims to acquire primarily Grade A commercial properties, but may acquire other related real estate as well.</div><div>It will have an initial portfolio of three commercial buildings, with six office towers, located in DD Meridian Park. It also owns the land for two other under construction assets, which have been leased to DDP. Together the assets will have a gross leasable area (GLA) of 172,252sqm. As of Sep 2020, the portfolio had an occupancy of 99.5% and weighted average lease expiry for the office leases of 4.2years.</div><div>Its assets are relatively new, with all having been completed over 2017-19. The assets have long term leases and step-up rental escalation, which should provide rental stability. However, the assets aren’t located in prime CBD and the particular area appears to have a fair amount of incoming office supply over the next few years. </div><div>
We looked at the background of the REIT in our earlier note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ddpm-reit-pre-ipo-brand-new-assets-but-not-with-the-best-of-outlooks" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DDMP REIT Pre-IPO - Brand new assets but not with the best of outlooks</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ddmp-reit-pre-ipo-peer-review" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DDMP REIT Pre-IPO - Peer Review.</a>
In this note, we will comment on valuation and run the deal through our ECM framework.
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DDMP REIT (DDMPR), a subsidiary of DoubleDragon Properties Corp (DDP), aims to raise up to US$275m in its Philippines listing.DDMPR will be the second REIT listing in the Philippines. DDMPR’s investment strategy is to invest in income-generating real estate located in either Metro Manila or key provinces in the Philippines. It aims to acquire primarily Grade A commercial properties, but may acquire other related real estate as well.It will have an initial portfolio of three commercial buildings, with six office towers, located in DD Meridian Park. It also owns the land for two other under construction assets, which have been leased to DDP. Together the assets will have a gross leasable area (GLA) of 172,252sqm. As of Sep 2020, the portfolio had an occupancy of 99.5% and weighted average lease expiry for the office leases of 4.2years.Its assets are relatively new, with all having been completed over 2017-19. The assets have long term leases and step-up rental escalation, which should provide rental stability. However, the assets aren’t located in prime CBD and the particular area appears to have a fair amount of incoming office supply over the next few years. 
We looked at the background of the REIT in our earlier note, DDMP REIT Pre-IPO - Brand new assets but not with the best of outlooks and DDMP REIT Pre-IPO - Peer Review.
In this note, we will comment on valuation and run the deal through our ECM framework.


DDMP REIT IPO - Would Go in Towards the Low-End

DDMP REIT (DDMPR), a subsidiary of DoubleDragon Properties Corp (DDP), aims to raise up to US$300 in its Philippines listing.DDMPR will be the second REIT listing in the Philippines. DDMPR’s investment strategy is to invest in income-generating real estate located in either Metro Manila or key provinces in the Philippines. It aims to acquire primarily Grade A commercial properties, but may acquire other related real estate as well.It will have an initial portfolio of three commercial buildings, with six office towers, located in DD Meridian Park. It also owns the land for two other under construction assets, which have been leased to DDP. Together the assets will have a gross leasable area (GLA) of 172,252sqm. As of Sep 2020, the portfolio had an occupancy of 99.5% and weighted average lease expiry for the office leases of 4.2years.Its assets are relatively new, with all having been completed over 2017-19. The assets have long term leases and step-up rental escalation, which should provide rental stability. However, the assets aren’t located in prime CBD and the particular area appears to have a fair amount of incoming office supply over the next few years. We looked at the background of the REIT in our earlier note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ddpm-reit-pre-ipo-brand-new-assets-but-not-with-the-best-of-outlooks" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DDMP REIT Pre-IPO - Brand new assets but not with the best of outlooks</a>. In this note, we’ll undertake a peer comparison with recently listed AREIT.

DDMP REIT (DDMPR), a subsidiary of DoubleDragon Properties Corp (DDP), aims to raise up to US$300 in its Philippines listing.DDMPR will be the second REIT listing in the Philippines. DDMPR’s investment strategy is to invest in income-generating real estate located in either Metro Manila or key provinces in the Philippines. It aims to acquire primarily Grade A commercial properties, but may acquire other related real estate as well.It will have an initial portfolio of three commercial buildings, with six office towers, located in DD Meridian Park. It also owns the land for two other under construction assets, which have been leased to DDP. Together the assets will have a gross leasable area (GLA) of 172,252sqm. As of Sep 2020, the portfolio had an occupancy of 99.5% and weighted average lease expiry for the office leases of 4.2years.Its assets are relatively new, with all having been completed over 2017-19. The assets have long term leases and step-up rental escalation, which should provide rental stability. However, the assets aren’t located in prime CBD and the particular area appears to have a fair amount of incoming office supply over the next few years. We looked at the background of the REIT in our earlier note, DDMP REIT Pre-IPO - Brand new assets but not with the best of outlooks. In this note, we’ll undertake a peer comparison with recently listed AREIT.

DDMP REIT (DDMPR), a subsidiary of DoubleDragon Properties Corp (DDP), aims to raise up to US$300 in its Philippines listing.
DDMPR will be the second REIT listing in the Philippines. DDMPR’s investment strategy is to invest in income-generating real estate located in either Metro Manila or key provinces in the Philippines. It aims to acquire primarily Grade A commercial properties, but may acquire other related real estate as well.
It will have an initial portfolio of three commercial buildings, with six office towers, located in DD Meridian Park. It also owns the land for two other under construction assets, which have been leased to DDP. Together the assets will have a gross leasable area (GLA) of 172,252sqm. As of Sep 2020, the portfolio had an occupancy of 99.5% and weighted average lease expiry for the office leases of 4.2years.
Its assets are relatively new, with all having been completed over 2017-19. The assets have long term leases and step-up rental escalation, which should provide rental stability. 
However, the assets aren’t located in prime CBD and the particular area appears to have a fair amount of incoming office supply over the next few years.

DDMP REIT (DDMPR), a subsidiary of DoubleDragon Properties Corp (DDP), aims to raise up to US$300 in its Philippines listing.
DDMPR will be the second REIT listing in the Philippines. DDMPR’s investment strategy is to invest in income-generating real estate located in either Metro Manila or key provinces in the Philippines. It aims to acquire primarily Grade A commercial properties, but may acquire other related real estate as well.
It will have an initial portfolio of three commercial buildings, with six office towers, located in DD Meridian Park. It also owns the land for two other under construction assets, which have been leased to DDP. Together the assets will have a gross leasable area (GLA) of 172,252sqm. As of Sep 2020, the portfolio had an occupancy of 99.5% and weighted average lease expiry for the office leases of 4.2years.
Its assets are relatively new, with all having been completed over 2017-19. The assets have long term leases and step-up rental escalation, which should provide rental stability. 
However, the assets aren’t located in prime CBD and the particular area appears to have a fair amount of incoming office supply over the next few years.

DDMP REIT Pre-IPO - Brand New Assets but Not with the Best of Outlooks

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Negative Jaws:  Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. (OCBC.SP) [OCBC] reported 4Q20 net profit of SGD 1.1 bn, a SGD 102 mn (9.9%) increase on a linked quarter basis. Were it not for the 0.7% tax rate as opposed to the 12.2% tax rate during 3Q20, OCBC’s bottom-line performance would have come in at SGD 994 mn  - down SGD 34 mn (3.3%). In addition, OCBC continues to suffer from negative operating jaws, with revenues declining 2.6% and costs increasing 2.3%;*Credit Improving In Reality: We have become more optimistic. By our calculation, we find that net new NPL growth continued to be negative on an annualized basis at SGD 78 mn or 8.0% annualized (versus 2.3% annualized).  We also find that reserves are now where they need to be, which is a far cry from where currently DBS Group Holdings (DBS.SP) is; and*Insurance Weakness: Great Eastern Holdings (GE.SP) [Great Eastern] reported 2H20 bottom-line results of SGD 688.5 mn, improving SGD 348.6 mn (102.5%) HOH. However, when we exclude 2H20’s net gains on sale of SGD 3.8 bn, core operating results were far from impressive at a loss of SGD 3.1 bn versus operating income SGD 217.3 mn in 1H20.

*Negative Jaws:  Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. (OCBC.SP) [OCBC] reported 4Q20 net profit of SGD 1.1 bn, a SGD 102 mn (9.9%) increase on a linked quarter basis. Were it not for the 0.7% tax rate as opposed to the 12.2% tax rate during 3Q20, OCBC’s bottom-line performance would have come in at SGD 994 mn  - down SGD 34 mn (3.3%). In addition, OCBC continues to suffer from negative operating jaws, with revenues declining 2.6% and costs increasing 2.3%;*Credit Improving In Reality: We have become more optimistic. By our calculation, we find that net new NPL growth continued to be negative on an annualized basis at SGD 78 mn or 8.0% annualized (versus 2.3% annualized).  We also find that reserves are now where they need to be, which is a far cry from where currently DBS Group Holdings (DBS.SP) is; and*Insurance Weakness: Great Eastern Holdings (GE.SP) [Great Eastern] reported 2H20 bottom-line results of SGD 688.5 mn, improving SGD 348.6 mn (102.5%) HOH. However, when we exclude 2H20’s net gains on sale of SGD 3.8 bn, core operating results were far from impressive at a loss of SGD 3.1 bn versus operating income SGD 217.3 mn in 1H20. 

Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. – Mixed Bag, But AQ Improving

*Negative Operating Remain Troubling: DBS Group Holdings (DBS.SP) [DBS] reported 4Q20 results of SGD 1.0 bn, declining SGD 285 mn (22.0%) on a linked quarter basis. Results remain troubling across the board, as this is the second consecutive quarter that DBS reported negative operating jaws whilst the decline in loss provisions reversed course on weaker credit;*Credit Risk Challenges Management: We remain unconvinced that the moratorium exits are anything more than additional reliance on government schemes and relief programs, as this improvement would appear to be in contravention to the stress being experienced regionally. By our calculation, we find that net new NPLs continue to increase – up SGD 631 mn or increasing 41.7% on an annualized basis – more than doubling the figures of SGD 272 mn or 18.9% on an annualized basis for 3Q20. We feel that reserves should be shored up in the neighborhood of SGD 2.8bn – amounting now to three plus full quarters of results, comparing very unfavorably to the SGD 1.3 bn calculated (one quarter of results) just a quarter earlier and suggest that Lakshmi Vilas Bank’s (LVB) risk is not under the control; and *India Deal Poses Significant Challenges: : By our calculation and based on LVB’s FY 2Q21 results, the company would appear to be insolvent to the tune of INR 39 bn – nearly 56% greater than the DBS Bank India capital infusion. LVB loses money on an operating basis prior to loss provisions, as revenues (no clarity on what is recurring) of INR 15.4 bn are less than operating expenses of INR 16.0 bn – or by 3.7% at FY 2Q21; et al.  DBS expects DBS India to return to profitability and that the LVB deal will be ROE accretive over the next 12-24 months. We’d like some of what management is smoking.

*Negative Operating Remain Troubling: DBS Group Holdings (DBS.SP) [DBS] reported 4Q20 results of SGD 1.0 bn, declining SGD 285 mn (22.0%) on a linked quarter basis. Results remain troubling across the board, as this is the second consecutive quarter that DBS reported negative operating jaws whilst the decline in loss provisions reversed course on weaker credit;*Credit Risk Challenges Management: We remain unconvinced that the moratorium exits are anything more than additional reliance on government schemes and relief programs, as this improvement would appear to be in contravention to the stress being experienced regionally. By our calculation, we find that net new NPLs continue to increase – up SGD 631 mn or increasing 41.7% on an annualized basis – more than doubling the figures of SGD 272 mn or 18.9% on an annualized basis for 3Q20. We feel that reserves should be shored up in the neighborhood of SGD 2.8bn – amounting now to three plus full quarters of results, comparing very unfavorably to the SGD 1.3 bn calculated (one quarter of results) just a quarter earlier and suggest that Lakshmi Vilas Bank’s (LVB) risk is not under the control; and *India Deal Poses Significant Challenges: : By our calculation and based on LVB’s FY 2Q21 results, the company would appear to be insolvent to the tune of INR 39 bn – nearly 56% greater than the DBS Bank India capital infusion. LVB loses money on an operating basis prior to loss provisions, as revenues (no clarity on what is recurring) of INR 15.4 bn are less than operating expenses of INR 16.0 bn – or by 3.7% at FY 2Q21; et al.  DBS expects DBS India to return to profitability and that the LVB deal will be ROE accretive over the next 12-24 months. We’d like some of what management is smoking. 

DBS Group Holdings – COVID & India Not A Good Combo

Singapore

CapitaLand Ascendas REIT is an industrial real estate investment trust. The Trust invests in business and science park properties, integrated development, amenities, and retail (IDAR) properties, high-specifications industrial properties and data centers, light industrial and flatted factories, and logistics and distribution centers.

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CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (CLAR SP)

DDMP REIT IPO - Would Go in Towards the Low-End

DDMP REIT (DDMPR), a subsidiary of DoubleDragon Properties Corp (DDP), aims to raise up to US$275m in its Philippines listing.

Sumeet Singh

DDMP REIT Pre-IPO - Peer Review

DDMP REIT (DDMPR), a subsidiary of DoubleDragon Properties Corp (DDP), aims to raise up to US$300 in its Philippines listing. DDMPR will be the...

Sumeet Singh

DDMP REIT Pre-IPO - Brand New Assets but Not with the Best of Outlooks

DDMP REIT (DDMPR), a subsidiary of DoubleDragon Properties Corp (DDP), aims to raise up to US$300 in its Philippines listing.

Sumeet Singh

Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. – Mixed Bag, But AQ Improving

OVERSEA CHINESE BANKING CORP: Were it not for the 0.7% tax rate as opposed to the 12.2% tax rate during 3Q20, OCBC’s bottom-line would've declined...

Thomas J. Monaco

DBS Group Holdings – COVID & India Not A Good Combo

DBS GROUP HOLDINGS: DBS reported a 4Q20 results decline of 22.0% linked quarter. Results remain troubling across the board. India deal poses...

Thomas J. Monaco

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