HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><strong>1. Industry viewpoints:</strong></p><ul>
<li>Last week, the bidding for the 4<sup>th</sup> volume-based purchase (VBP) was officially opened.</li>
<li>China's CTLA-4 antibody drug industry is in the early stage, but is expected to expand rapidly from 2021. </li>
<li>China's orthopedic implant device market is in a stage of rapid growth in recent years. However, the future large price reduction if included in the volume-based purchase should also be take into consideration.</li>
</ul><p><strong>2. Company news:</strong></p><p style="text-align: start;">News about the progress of new drugs, COVID-19 vaccine, strategic collaboration and acquisition from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antengene-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29705:1" rel="noopener">Antengene (6996 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cansino-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27739:1" rel="noopener">CanSino Biologics Inc (6185 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-medical-system-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18736:1" rel="noopener">China Medical System (867 HK)</a>.</p><p><strong>3. Market review:</strong></p><p style="text-align: start;">Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share increased 3.75%, while CSI 300 increased 2.46% over the same period of time.</p><p><strong>4. Risk disclosure:</strong></p><p style="text-align: start;">Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.</p>

1. Industry viewpoints:
Last week, the bidding for the 4th volume-based purchase (VBP) was officially opened.
China's CTLA-4 antibody drug industry is in the early stage, but is expected to expand rapidly from 2021. 
China's orthopedic implant device market is in a stage of rapid growth in recent years. However, the future large price reduction if included in the volume-based purchase should also be take into consideration.
2. Company news:News about the progress of new drugs, COVID-19 vaccine, strategic collaboration and acquisition from Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK), Antengene (6996 HK), CanSino Biologics Inc (6185 HK) and China Medical System (867 HK).3. Market review:Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share increased 3.75%, while CSI 300 increased 2.46% over the same period of time.4. Risk disclosure:Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

<p>Compared with innovative drugs, the R&amp;D and production barriers of vaccine products are higher, and the pace of technology and product iteration is slower than that of innovative drugs. Except for the herpes zoster vaccine, the global sales of top ten varieties in the past decade are all the upgrades of existing product lines by enterprises. On the other hand, limited by indications, methods of use and competition of similar drugs, new drugs usually need to experience a gentle sales climbing curve. Both the impact of generic drugs after the patent cliff and the competition of other new products could lead to a rapid decline in sales. Vaccine products, especially those blockbuster vaccines, usually don't have such situations, and the product cycle is more stable.</p>

Compared with innovative drugs, the R&amp;D and production barriers of vaccine products are higher, and the pace of technology and product iteration is slower than that of innovative drugs. Except for the herpes zoster vaccine, the global sales of top ten varieties in the past decade are all the upgrades of existing product lines by enterprises. On the other hand, limited by indications, methods of use and competition of similar drugs, new drugs usually need to experience a gentle sales climbing curve. Both the impact of generic drugs after the patent cliff and the competition of other new products could lead to a rapid decline in sales. Vaccine products, especially those blockbuster vaccines, usually don't have such situations, and the product cycle is more stable.

Industry Report - Insights on China Vaccine Industry

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

CanSino Biologics  / Equity Capital Markets

<p>Lilly Asia is looking to raise around US$180m via selling a 6% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cansino-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27739:1" rel="noopener">CanSino Biologics Inc (6185 HK)</a>'s  H-shares. Lilly Asia last sold its stake in Apr 2020,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cansino-biologics-placement-liquidity-permits-a-trade-but-beware-of-covid-19-hype" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CanSino Biologics Placement: Liquidity Permits a Trade but Beware of COVID-19 Hype, </a> that didn't do very well in the short-term. </p><div><p>We have previously covered the IPO as well: </p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cansino-biologics-ipo-promising-pre-clinical-results-but-vaccine-scandal-weighs-part-1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CanSino Biologics (康希诺) IPO: Promising Pre-Clinical Results but Vaccine Scandal Weighs (Part 1)</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cansino-biologics-ipo-thoughts-on-valuation-part-2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CanSino Biologics (康希诺) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation (Part 2)</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cansino-biologics-ipo-valuation-update-part-3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CanSino Biologics (康希诺) IPO: Valuation Update (Part 3)</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cansino-biologics-ipo-valuation-attractive-lilly-asia-doubling-up-part-4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CanSino Biologics (康希诺) IPO: Valuation Attractive, Lilly Asia Doubling Up (Part 4)</a></li>
</ul></div>

Lilly Asia is looking to raise around US$180m via selling a 6% stake in CanSino Biologics Inc (6185 HK)'s  H-shares. Lilly Asia last sold its stake in Apr 2020,  CanSino Biologics Placement: Liquidity Permits a Trade but Beware of COVID-19 Hype,  that didn't do very well in the short-term. We have previously covered the IPO as well: 
CanSino Biologics (康希诺) IPO: Promising Pre-Clinical Results but Vaccine Scandal Weighs (Part 1)
CanSino Biologics (康希诺) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation (Part 2)
CanSino Biologics (康希诺) IPO: Valuation Update (Part 3)
CanSino Biologics (康希诺) IPO: Valuation Attractive, Lilly Asia Doubling Up (Part 4)


Cansino Biologics Placement - Past Deal Didn't Do Well, Losing the Vaccine Race

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Quantitative Analysis

<div>
<p>The H-Share/A-Share monitor is published every weekend for the data ending the last trading day of the previous week. It includes all H-Share/A-Share pairs where the H-Share has a 90-day average daily value-traded of US$1.0mm or more. It shows basic data per H/A spread stock by sector, with...</p>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>H/A Discount,</li>
<li>movement in H/A Discount over 5 and 20 days,</li>
<li>a 52-week Z-score for the spread,</li>
<li>A chart showing evolution of the H/A spread over the last 20 days,</li>
<li>Southbound shares held (millions of shares), Net Change in Southbound (Shanghai and Shenzhen combined) shares held by millions of shares, and contribution of Net Southbound Volume to HK-traded volume over the past five days and 20 days, </li>
<li>There is also a chart showing the average sector spread and the individual spreads within each sector over the last three years. </li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<p>A recent addition is the possible status of H/A-share companies in the monitor which are subject to the Trump Executive Order on Chinese Military Companies. They are separated into three types (Possible Direct Qualifying Entity, Possible Indirect Qualifying Entity, and 20+%-owned by Qualifying Entity). They are color-coded as below.</p>
</div>
<section>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/174/784/original/image?1606541170" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="174784"></figure>
</section>
<div>
<p>For more on the list of names, please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/trump-s-executive-order-on-chinese-military-companies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45259" rel="noopener">Trump's Executive Order on Chinese Military Companies</a>. </p>
</div>
<hr>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>This past week saw mixed movement in H/A spreads but on average they were narrower.</p>
<section class="figure">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/174/829/original/Screenshot%202020-11-28%20at%206.25.16%20PM.png?1606559131" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="174829"></figure>
<p></p>
</section>
<p>Average performance of the 39 recommendations (long 27, short 12) from last week was for a profit of 0.67% per trade.</p>
<p>There are 43 recommendations for the upcoming week.</p>
</div>
<hr>
<div>
<p>The first sector discussed is <strong>Consumer</strong>, where liquid H/A spreads narrowed on average 0.6% this past week after narrowing 2.7% the week before. Spreads are now tighter by 2.1% on average over a four-week period. Four of six liquid Hs outperformed their As.</p>
<p>Southbound accounts were large-ish net buyers on the week. There were three net buys and three net sells but the net buying ended up being all <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>, again. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-automobile-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11082:1" rel="noopener">Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK)</a> saw significant net selling. </p>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>Last week I recommended staying long the H vs A on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a> and that spread gained 1.6% for the week (after gaining 4.7% the week before when it was also recommended). This past week I put out the Weekly late on Monday (after 2pm), when BYD in Hong Kong had gained 3.7% vs the As on the day, and so recommended implementing a short BYD (1211 HK) H vs A share trade and from that point or even from the end of the day or the next, the Hs actually underperformed the As by 0.4%. </p>
<p>See below the fold for this week's recommendations.</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<section class="figure">
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<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/174/809/original/Screenshot%202020-11-28%20at%205.32.56%20PM.png?1606556000" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="174809"></figure>
</section>
<p></p>
</section>
<section class="figure"></section>
<section>
<section class="figure">For Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities, please read on.</section>
</section>


The H-Share/A-Share monitor is published every weekend for the data ending the last trading day of the previous week. It includes all H-Share/A-Share pairs where the H-Share has a 90-day average daily value-traded of US$1.0mm or more. It shows basic data per H/A spread stock by sector, with...



H/A Discount,
movement in H/A Discount over 5 and 20 days,
a 52-week Z-score for the spread,
A chart showing evolution of the H/A spread over the last 20 days,
Southbound shares held (millions of shares), Net Change in Southbound (Shanghai and Shenzhen combined) shares held by millions of shares, and contribution of Net Southbound Volume to HK-traded volume over the past five days and 20 days, 
There is also a chart showing the average sector spread and the individual spreads within each sector over the last three years. 



A recent addition is the possible status of H/A-share companies in the monitor which are subject to the Trump Executive Order on Chinese Military Companies. They are separated into three types (Possible Direct Qualifying Entity, Possible Indirect Qualifying Entity, and 20+%-owned by Qualifying Entity). They are color-coded as below.





For more on the list of names, please see Trump's Executive Order on Chinese Military Companies. 



This past week saw mixed movement in H/A spreads but on average they were narrower.




Average performance of the 39 recommendations (long 27, short 12) from last week was for a profit of 0.67% per trade.
There are 43 recommendations for the upcoming week.



The first sector discussed is Consumer, where liquid H/A spreads narrowed on average 0.6% this past week after narrowing 2.7% the week before. Spreads are now tighter by 2.1% on average over a four-week period. Four of six liquid Hs outperformed their As.
Southbound accounts were large-ish net buyers on the week. There were three net buys and three net sells but the net buying ended up being all BYD (1211 HK), again. Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK) saw significant net selling. 




Last week I recommended staying long the H vs A on Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) and that spread gained 1.6% for the week (after gaining 4.7% the week before when it was also recommended). This past week I put out the Weekly late on Monday (after 2pm), when BYD in Hong Kong had gained 3.7% vs the As on the day, and so recommended implementing a short BYD (1211 HK) H vs A share trade and from that point or even from the end of the day or the next, the Hs actually underperformed the As by 0.4%. 
See below the fold for this week's recommendations.











For Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities, please read on.


Quiddity Weekly H/​​A: Share Spread Monitor as of 27 Nov 2020

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<p>Member of the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) are included in the Southbound Stock Connect program if their market cap exceeds HK$5bn. However, Secondary Listings and Biotech stocks that listed under Chapter 18A of the Listing Rules were excluded from the Stock Connect program.</p><p>This headline "*H.K. TO INCLUDE SECONDARY-LISTED COS IN STOCK CONNECT: SING TAO" could drive stocks that are HSCI members but not a part of Stock Connect higher. If Chapter 18A listed Biotech stocks are added to Stock Connect, they could run even more.</p><p>In this Insight, we take a look at stocks that are a part of the HSCI or are expected to join the HSCI in the next review and could be eligible to be included in the Stock Connect program.</p>

Member of the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) are included in the Southbound Stock Connect program if their market cap exceeds HK$5bn. However, Secondary Listings and Biotech stocks that listed under Chapter 18A of the Listing Rules were excluded from the Stock Connect program.This headline "*H.K. TO INCLUDE SECONDARY-LISTED COS IN STOCK CONNECT: SING TAO" could drive stocks that are HSCI members but not a part of Stock Connect higher. If Chapter 18A listed Biotech stocks are added to Stock Connect, they could run even more.In this Insight, we take a look at stocks that are a part of the HSCI or are expected to join the HSCI in the next review and could be eligible to be included in the Stock Connect program.

Stock Connect - Secondary Listings and Biotech Stocks to Become Eligible?

China

CanSino Biologics Inc. develops and manufactures biological vaccine products. The Company discovers quadrivalence meningococcal conjugate, pneumococcal polysaccharide, and adenovirus vector-based tuberculosis vaccines for human use. CanSino Biologics serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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CanSino Biologics (6185 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.5)

This article analyzed the results of the 4th volume-based purchase, the CTLA-4 antibody drug industry, the orthopedic implant device market, news...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Industry Report - Insights on China Vaccine Industry

The article analyzed China vaccine industry in terms of market potential, key vaccine varieties such as PCV13, influenza vaccine, HPV vaccine,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Cansino Biologics Placement - Past Deal Didn't Do Well, Losing the Vaccine Race

Lilly Asia is looking to raise around US$180m via selling a 6% stake in CanSino Biologics Inc (6185 HK)'s H-shares. Lilly Asia last sold its stake...

Sumeet Singh

Stock Connect - Secondary Listings and Biotech Stocks to Become Eligible?

A rule change that admits Secondary listings and Chapter 18A listed Biotech stocks to the Southbound Stock Connect could see Alibaba, JD and...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.5)

This article analyzed the results of the 4th volume-based purchase, the CTLA-4 antibody drug industry, the orthopedic implant device market, news...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Industry Report - Insights on China Vaccine Industry

The article analyzed China vaccine industry in terms of market potential, key vaccine varieties such as PCV13, influenza vaccine, HPV vaccine,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Cansino Biologics Placement - Past Deal Didn't Do Well, Losing the Vaccine Race

Lilly Asia is looking to raise around US$180m via selling a 6% stake in CanSino Biologics Inc (6185 HK)'s H-shares. Lilly Asia last sold its stake...

Sumeet Singh

Quiddity Weekly H/​​A: Share Spread Monitor as of 27 Nov 2020

The weekly H/A Share Monitor and Trade Recommendations. Spreads narrower on the week. Last week's 39 trade recommendations gained 0.67% on average....

Travis Lundy

Stock Connect - Secondary Listings and Biotech Stocks to Become Eligible?

A rule change that admits Secondary listings and Chapter 18A listed Biotech stocks to the Southbound Stock Connect could see Alibaba, JD and...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Weekly H/A: Share Spread Monitor as of 27 Nov 2020