Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We still believe it's possible we've seen the lows for this pause/pullback on the SPX, and we see low probability of meaningful correction if SPX is above 4300-4325 (1.5-year support).</li>
<li>As initially discussed in our 8/29/23 Compass, we wouldn't be surprised to see another month+ (i.e., through the end of September, and possibly longer) of consolidation between 4325 and 4600.</li>
<li>Downgrading Industrials (XLI) to market weight due to 1.5+ year RS uptrend violation. Buys highlighted in Uranium and Energy (refiners and coal).</li>
</ul>


We still believe it's possible we've seen the lows for this pause/pullback on the SPX, and we see low probability of meaningful correction if SPX is above 4300-4325 (1.5-year support).
As initially discussed in our 8/29/23 Compass, we wouldn't be surprised to see another month+ (i.e., through the end of September, and possibly longer) of consolidation between 4325 and 4600.
Downgrading Industrials (XLI) to market weight due to 1.5+ year RS uptrend violation. Buys highlighted in Uranium and Energy (refiners and coal).


Downgrading Industrials to Market Weight; Major Supports Holding; Buys in Uranium and Refiners

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Inflation Reduction Act is by far the largest legislation to positively influence climate change and emissions control.</li>
<li>IRA is packed with subsidies, and loans totaling up to USD 369 billion over the next ten years on renewables, EVs, hydrogen hubs, carbon capture &amp; storage, among others.</li>
<li>By 2035, IRA will drive reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by up to 48% relative to 2005 emissions levels.</li>
</ul>


Inflation Reduction Act is by far the largest legislation to positively influence climate change and emissions control.
IRA is packed with subsidies, and loans totaling up to USD 369 billion over the next ten years on renewables, EVs, hydrogen hubs, carbon capture &amp; storage, among others.
By 2035, IRA will drive reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by up to 48% relative to 2005 emissions levels.


Many Aren’t Aware of the Inflation Reduction Act; and That’s Good News for Investors

First Trust Dj Internet Ind / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week (8/22/23) we discussed our expectations for an oversold bounce due to an overwhelming number of indexes/Sectors/industries testing multi-month supports, combined with Treasury yields and the DXY testing resistance.</li>
<li>The bounce has begun with the SPP ending higher last week for the first time in a month, and it is possible we have seen the lows for this pause/pullback.</li>
<li>A meaningful correction cannot happen if the SPX is above 4300-4325, but we would not be surprised to see another month or more of consolidation between 4300 and 4600.</li>
</ul>


Last week (8/22/23) we discussed our expectations for an oversold bounce due to an overwhelming number of indexes/Sectors/industries testing multi-month supports, combined with Treasury yields and the DXY testing resistance.
The bounce has begun with the SPP ending higher last week for the first time in a month, and it is possible we have seen the lows for this pause/pullback.
A meaningful correction cannot happen if the SPX is above 4300-4325, but we would not be surprised to see another month or more of consolidation between 4300 and 4600.


Oversold Bounce Underway Amid Consolidation Phase; Buys in IT Consulting, Uranium, Technology

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week (Aug. 18) we discussed the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY testing respective resistance (4.3%-4.35% and $103.50-$103.70).</li>
<li>As long as no decisive breakouts in the 10-year yield or DXY, we were buyers on the pullback to $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>Outside of our overweight countries (Japan, India, Taiwan, Greece), defensive Sectors continue to lag. We highlight buys in Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials/Energy, and Financials.</li>
</ul>


Last week (Aug. 18) we discussed the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY testing respective resistance (4.3%-4.35% and $103.50-$103.70).
As long as no decisive breakouts in the 10-year yield or DXY, we were buyers on the pullback to $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
Outside of our overweight countries (Japan, India, Taiwan, Greece), defensive Sectors continue to lag. We highlight buys in Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials/Energy, and Financials.


Key Supports Holding Strong; 10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buys in Non-Defensives

<ul>
<li>Global equities under pressure; we discussed in our August 3,2023 <em>Int'l Compass</em> how it could be the start of a ~15% pullback in $ACWI, which would put it at $84-$85.</li>
<li>We also discussed how it is possible that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the major $93 support level (which it tested today).</li>
<li>If the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY remain below their respective resistance levels, we remain buyers on this pullback to $93 on ACWI-US.</li>
</ul>


Global equities under pressure; we discussed in our August 3,2023 Int'l Compass how it could be the start of a ~15% pullback in $ACWI, which would put it at $84-$85.
We also discussed how it is possible that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the major $93 support level (which it tested today).
If the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY remain below their respective resistance levels, we remain buyers on this pullback to $93 on ACWI-US.


10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

Canada

Cameco Corporation explores, develops, mines, refines, converts, and fabricates uranium. The Company offers uranium for sale as fuel for generating electricity in nuclear power reactors. Cameco operates worldwide.

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Cameco Corp (CCO CN)

Downgrading Industrials to Market Weight; Major Supports Holding; Buys in Uranium and Refiners

Downgrading Industrials/Manufacturing $XLI to market weight. Still see low probability of a meaningful correction if the $SPX is above 4300-4325....

Vermilion Research

Many Aren’t Aware of the Inflation Reduction Act; and That’s Good News for Investors

Two in three Americans know little about IRA. The Inflation Reduction Act (“IRA”) took years in the making and will have material implications...

Mint Finance

Oversold Bounce Underway Amid Consolidation Phase; Buys in IT Consulting, Uranium, Technology

Our 8/22 expectations for oversold bounce coming to fruition as major multi-month supports hold $SPX $DJI $XLK $ACWI, & Treasury yields $TNX $TYX...

Vermilion Research

Key Supports Holding Strong; 10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buys in Non-Defensives

We remain constructive on global equities as long as $ACWI remains above $93 (1+ year base support). 10-year Treasury yield $TNX holding below 4.3...

Vermilion Research

10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

Test of Key Supports: $93 on $ACWI, $47.50 on $ACWX, $70 on $EFA, 4200 on EURO $STOXX 50. As long as 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX and $DXY remain...

Vermilion Research

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