External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

Calumet Specialty Products Par / Equity Bottom-Up

Key points (machine generated)<ul><li>Calumet is expected to experience positive catalysts in the next six months despite facing challenges such as its MLP structure, operational issues, and credibility concerns.</li><li>The company has the potential to generate significant EBITDA numbers from its Specialty and MRL divisions, indicating strong growth prospects.</li><li>The Performance Brands and legacy refinery businesses are also expected to contribute to EBITDA, assuming favorable market conditions.</li></ul>This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Key points (machine generated)Calumet is expected to experience positive catalysts in the next six months despite facing challenges such as its MLP structure, operational issues, and credibility concerns.The company has the potential to generate significant EBITDA numbers from its Specialty and MRL divisions, indicating strong growth prospects.The Performance Brands and legacy refinery businesses are also expected to contribute to EBITDA, assuming favorable market conditions.This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Calumet Specialty Prods  -Lp (CLMT) - Tuesday, Oct 24, 2023

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Despite the US biofuels industry facing challenges in 2024, including oversupplied renewable credit markets, lower-than- expected voluntary demand, election uncertainty, and a drop in profits, the industry made progress in many areas, including the advancement of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) projects and hubs.</li><li>We highlight five biofuel trends that will continue to have an impact in 2025.</li><li>In 2024, the lack of guidance from the US Treasury Department on the 45Z clean fuel tax credit continued to be a key source of concern among biofuels producers, SAF project developers, and farmers.</li></ul>

Despite the US biofuels industry facing challenges in 2024, including oversupplied renewable credit markets, lower-than- expected voluntary demand, election uncertainty, and a drop in profits, the industry made progress in many areas, including the advancement of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) projects and hubs.We highlight five biofuel trends that will continue to have an impact in 2025.In 2024, the lack of guidance from the US Treasury Department on the 45Z clean fuel tax credit continued to be a key source of concern among biofuels producers, SAF project developers, and farmers.

US Biofuels Outlook - Five Trends to Watch in 2025

<ul><li>WTR attended the North American SAF Conference in St. Paul, Minnesota, which included close to 500 participants from government agencies, industry associations, and companies along the entire SAF supply chain, as well as financial and legal service providers.</li><li>For background, see WTR’s report, Biofuels Focus: Is Alcohol-to-Jet Fuel SAF Clearing for Take-Off In the US?.</li><li>SAF capacity proposed in the US is already massive. </li></ul>

WTR attended the North American SAF Conference in St. Paul, Minnesota, which included close to 500 participants from government agencies, industry associations, and companies along the entire SAF supply chain, as well as financial and legal service providers.For background, see WTR’s report, Biofuels Focus: Is Alcohol-to-Jet Fuel SAF Clearing for Take-Off In the US?.SAF capacity proposed in the US is already massive. 

Key Takeaways: The North American Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Conference

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We still believe it's possible we've seen the lows for this pause/pullback on the SPX, and we see low probability of meaningful correction if SPX is above 4300-4325 (1.5-year support).</li>
<li>As initially discussed in our 8/29/23 Compass, we wouldn't be surprised to see another month+ (i.e., through the end of September, and possibly longer) of consolidation between 4325 and 4600.</li>
<li>Downgrading Industrials (XLI) to market weight due to 1.5+ year RS uptrend violation. Buys highlighted in Uranium and Energy (refiners and coal).</li>
</ul>


We still believe it's possible we've seen the lows for this pause/pullback on the SPX, and we see low probability of meaningful correction if SPX is above 4300-4325 (1.5-year support).
As initially discussed in our 8/29/23 Compass, we wouldn't be surprised to see another month+ (i.e., through the end of September, and possibly longer) of consolidation between 4325 and 4600.
Downgrading Industrials (XLI) to market weight due to 1.5+ year RS uptrend violation. Buys highlighted in Uranium and Energy (refiners and coal).


Downgrading Industrials to Market Weight; Major Supports Holding; Buys in Uranium and Refiners

United States

Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. produces specialty hydrocarbon products for domestic and international customers.  The Company processes crude oil into a variety of customized lubricating oils, solvents, and waxes.  Calumet also processes crude oil into a variety of fuel and fuel-related products, including unleaded gasoline, diesel fuel, and jet fuel.

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Calumet Specialty Products Par (CLMT US)

Calumet Specialty Prods -Lp (CLMT) - Tuesday, Oct 24, 2023

Calumet is expected to experience positive catalysts in the next six months despite facing challenges such as its MLP structure, operational...

Value Investors Club

US Biofuels Outlook - Five Trends to Watch in 2025

In 2024, the lack of guidance from the US Treasury Department on the 45Z clean fuel tax credit continued to be a key source of concern among...

Water Tower Research

Key Takeaways: The North American Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Conference

The Commercial Aviation Alternative Fuels Initiative (CAAFI) said at least 200 entities have approached the association with SAF projects.

Water Tower Research

Downgrading Industrials to Market Weight; Major Supports Holding; Buys in Uranium and Refiners

Downgrading Industrials/Manufacturing $XLI to market weight. Still see low probability of a meaningful correction if the $SPX is above 4300-4325....

Vermilion Research

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