External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The USD retains a soft undertone after closing out Friday on the low after a poor week.</li><li>Sentiment on the USD is clearly changing as market conviction that the Fed tightening cycle is ended grows and investors start to focus on when the Fed will start to relax its policy settings.</li><li>That is entirely a matter of conjecture at this point. Scotia forecasts rate cuts starting in H2 while market pricing suggests some focus on the risk of an earlier cut (75% risk of a 25bps cut in May is reflected in OIS currently). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD retains a soft undertone after closing out Friday on the low after a poor week.Sentiment on the USD is clearly changing as market conviction that the Fed tightening cycle is ended grows and investors start to focus on when the Fed will start to relax its policy settings.That is entirely a matter of conjecture at this point. Scotia forecasts rate cuts starting in H2 while market pricing suggests some focus on the risk of an earlier cut (75% risk of a 25bps cut in May is reflected in OIS currently). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>The USD is ending the week on the defensive, losing ground versus all its major currency peers.</li><li>Stocks are trading higher in Europe, after some hefty losses in Asian markets, while US equity futures are trading with modest gains.</li><li>Bonds are broadly higher, however. US Treasurys are underperforming mildly, with 10Y yields down 3bps. Gilts are outperforming (10Y yields down 7-8bps) behind weak UK data. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is ending the week on the defensive, losing ground versus all its major currency peers.Stocks are trading higher in Europe, after some hefty losses in Asian markets, while US equity futures are trading with modest gains.Bonds are broadly higher, however. US Treasurys are underperforming mildly, with 10Y yields down 3bps. Gilts are outperforming (10Y yields down 7-8bps) behind weak UK data. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Softer as US Yields Decline

<ul><li>The USD retains a soft undertone but the DXY is essentially consolidating near yesterday’s closing low for the index as investors await developments.</li><li>Lower US CPI data has done a solid for EM FX while high beta FX is generally firmer on the session, reflecting a sea of green on the equity screens.</li><li>Asian markets rose strongly on the added impetus of a significant liquidity add by the PBoC through its medium-term lending facility. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD retains a soft undertone but the DXY is essentially consolidating near yesterday’s closing low for the index as investors await developments.Lower US CPI data has done a solid for EM FX while high beta FX is generally firmer on the session, reflecting a sea of green on the equity screens.Asian markets rose strongly on the added impetus of a significant liquidity add by the PBoC through its medium-term lending facility. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Steadies Ahead of Retail Sales

<ul><li>Last week’s broad rise in the USD is showing some signs of rolling over as markets position for the key economic releases due from the US in the next couple of days.</li><li>Today’s October CPI is expected to show a 0.1% rise in headline prices and a deceleration in the year-on-year rate to 3.3%, down from 3.7% in September.</li><li>Core prices are expected to rise 0.3% for a 4.1% gain in the October year—unchanged from September’s read. Retail Sales tomorrow are expected to reflect soft headline consumer activity in October (-0.3% m/m). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Last week’s broad rise in the USD is showing some signs of rolling over as markets position for the key economic releases due from the US in the next couple of days.Today’s October CPI is expected to show a 0.1% rise in headline prices and a deceleration in the year-on-year rate to 3.3%, down from 3.7% in September.Core prices are expected to rise 0.3% for a 4.1% gain in the October year—unchanged from September’s read. Retail Sales tomorrow are expected to reflect soft headline consumer activity in October (-0.3% m/m). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>We have revised our forecasts for the major currencies.</li><li>The weakness in the US dollar (USD) that we expected to develop over the second half of the year has not materialized.</li><li>Instead, a grind higher in the USD from the middle of the year was fueled by positive economic data and rising long-term yields amid simmering expectations that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) tightening cycle could extend further. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We have revised our forecasts for the major currencies.The weakness in the US dollar (USD) that we expected to develop over the second half of the year has not materialized.Instead, a grind higher in the USD from the middle of the year was fueled by positive economic data and rising long-term yields amid simmering expectations that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) tightening cycle could extend further. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Canada

The Canadian dollar is the official currency of Canada. 

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CAD (USDCAD CURNCY)

FX Daily - USD Retains a Soft Undertone

Sentiment on the USD is clearly changing as market conviction that the Fed tightening cycle is ended grows and investors start to focus on when the...

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Softer as US Yields Decline

The USD is ending the week on the defensive, losing ground versus all its major currency peers. Stocks are trading higher in Europe, after some...

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Steadies Ahead of Retail Sales

The USD retains a soft undertone but the DXY is essentially consolidating near yesterday’s closing low for the index as investors await developments.

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Mixed Ahead of CPI

Last week’s broad rise in the USD is showing some signs of rolling over as markets position for the key economic releases due from the US in the...

Scotiabank

Foreign Exchange Outlook - November 2023

We have revised our forecasts for the major currencies. The weakness in the US dollar (USD) that we expected to develop over the second half of the...

Scotiabank

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