Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI EM vs.EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the DXY peaked in November 2022, and also shows signs of reversing the 2-year downtrend.</li>
<li>As long as the DXY remains below $103.50-$106, we expect outperformance from EM to continue.</li>
<li>China/Hong Kong, Greece, South Africa, and Mexico stand out as attractive countries. Our top actionable Sectors include Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology. We highlight 76 attractive EM stocks.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI EM vs.EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the DXY peaked in November 2022, and also shows signs of reversing the 2-year downtrend.
As long as the DXY remains below $103.50-$106, we expect outperformance from EM to continue.
China/Hong Kong, Greece, South Africa, and Mexico stand out as attractive countries. Our top actionable Sectors include Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology. We highlight 76 attractive EM stocks.


EM Outperformance to Continue (Vs. EAFE) -- Add on a Pullback; DXY Needs to Hold Below $106

<ul>
<li>2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside</li>
<li>We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI</li>
<li>We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations</li>
</ul>


2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside
We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI
We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations


Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 11th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Tencent, Wuxi Biologics, HKEx, Kuaishou Technology.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 11th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight inflows into Tencent, Wuxi Biologics, HKEx, Kuaishou Technology.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Nov 4th): Tencent, Wuxi Biologics, HKEx, Kuaishou

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 4th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Kuaishou, Li Ning, China Shenhua, BYD Electronic.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 4th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Kuaishou, Li Ning, China Shenhua, BYD Electronic.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Kuaishou, Li Ning, China Shenhua, BYD Electronic

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

WM Motor Technology Co Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wm-motor-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29225:1" rel="noopener">WM Motor Technology Co Ltd (WMT CH)</a> (WMM) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>WM Motor is a smart EV player in China. As of the latest practicable date, it had a total of four main EV models. </li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



WM Motor Technology Co Ltd (WMT CH) (WMM) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
WM Motor is a smart EV player in China. As of the latest practicable date, it had a total of four main EV models. 
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


WM Motor Holding IPO - The Negatives - Has Ample Issues to Contend With

China

BYD Electronic International Co., Ltd. researches, develops, manufactures handset components such as handset casings and handset keypads and modules for handset manufacturers.  The Company also provides assembly services comprising assembly service and PCB assembly service to global handset manufacturers.

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BYD Electronics (285 HK)

EM Outperformance to Continue (Vs. EAFE) -- Add on a Pullback; DXY Needs to Hold Below $106

EM vs. EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the $DXY peaked in November 2022. If the DXY remains below...

Vermilion Research

Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

The $DXY broke below 5-year support at $103, signaling a major top in place. This is bullish for risk assets, and is another sign suggesting the...

Vermilion Research

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Nov 4th): Tencent, Wuxi Biologics, HKEx, Kuaishou

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Tencent, Wuxi Biologics, HKEx, Kuaishou.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Short Interest Weekly: Kuaishou, Li Ning, China Shenhua, BYD Electronic

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 4th and highlight short interest changes in Kuaishou, Li Ning, China...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

WM Motor Holding IPO - The Negatives - Has Ample Issues to Contend With

WM Motor Technology Co Ltd (WMT CH) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive...

Sumeet Singh

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