External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We summarize the Jun 2023 leading indicators as below, including number of leads, customer flows, and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.</li>
<li>Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15- 18 stores for each brand) in 15 major cities in China.</li>
<li>We are of the view that Tesla is still resilient, while NIO’s key metrics in Jun were below our expectation.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


We summarize the Jun 2023 leading indicators as below, including number of leads, customer flows, and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.
Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15- 18 stores for each brand) in 15 major cities in China.
We are of the view that Tesla is still resilient, while NIO’s key metrics in Jun were below our expectation.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Jun leading indicators: NIO weaker than expected

<ul><li>Nine new-energy vehicle (NEV) brands including BYD, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Aito, Neta and Leap reported their May 2023 sales volumes on 1 Jun 2023.</li><li>Sales volume of the nine brands combined rose 88% YoY (ranged from -26% to +146%) and 13% MoM (ranged from -8% to 38%) in May 2023.</li><li>Li Auto’s May sales more than doubled NIO and Xpeng combined.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nine new-energy vehicle (NEV) brands including BYD, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Aito, Neta and Leap reported their May 2023 sales volumes on 1 Jun 2023.Sales volume of the nine brands combined rose 88% YoY (ranged from -26% to +146%) and 13% MoM (ranged from -8% to 38%) in May 2023.Li Auto’s May sales more than doubled NIO and Xpeng combined.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – May NEV likely to hit second highest in history

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>BYD’s 1Q23 NP was 13% lower than our forecast, despite a strong GPM of 17.9%.</li><li>We believe its product mix, costs from previous investments and price war could limit its NP per vehicle in 2Q23E or even 2H23E.</li><li>Possible upside surprise from export and its premium brand Yangwang takes some time. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BYD’s 1Q23 NP was 13% lower than our forecast, despite a strong GPM of 17.9%.We believe its product mix, costs from previous investments and price war could limit its NP per vehicle in 2Q23E or even 2H23E.Possible upside surprise from export and its premium brand Yangwang takes some time. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BYD Company (1211 HK) – 1Q23 earnings as a mixed bag

<ul><li>BYD’s high earnings quality in FY22 could provide room for FY23E profitability, especially as battery prices decline faster than expected.</li><li>On the other hand, we think its earnings growth potential could be limited for the next 2-3 years given its market share now, which could make its current valuation fair.</li><li>Solid earnings in FY22 with heavy investments in R&amp;D and PP&amp;E. BYD’s FY22 net profit of RMB 16.6bn was in line with its previous profit alert.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BYD’s high earnings quality in FY22 could provide room for FY23E profitability, especially as battery prices decline faster than expected.On the other hand, we think its earnings growth potential could be limited for the next 2-3 years given its market share now, which could make its current valuation fair.Solid earnings in FY22 with heavy investments in R&amp;D and PP&amp;E. BYD’s FY22 net profit of RMB 16.6bn was in line with its previous profit alert.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BYD Company (1211 HK) – Fair valuation despite FY22 high earnings quality

<ul><li>China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume rose 11% YoY in Feb 2023, 4% lower than our prior forecast.</li><li>Wholesale volume also rose 11% YoY last month, 13% higher than our prior projection, again largely due to inventory restocking and higher export volume.</li><li>PV exports surged 86% YoY to about 271,000 units in Feb 2023. Automakers in China added about 131,000 units of inventories into their dealers in Feb 2023 based on our calculations, which has led to 2.2 months of inventories based on our projected retail sales volume for Mar and Apr 2023. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume rose 11% YoY in Feb 2023, 4% lower than our prior forecast.Wholesale volume also rose 11% YoY last month, 13% higher than our prior projection, again largely due to inventory restocking and higher export volume.PV exports surged 86% YoY to about 271,000 units in Feb 2023. Automakers in China added about 131,000 units of inventories into their dealers in Feb 2023 based on our calculations, which has led to 2.2 months of inventories based on our projected retail sales volume for Mar and Apr 2023. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – A trough in the short term?

China

BYD Company Limited manufactures automotive products. The Company produces ordinary passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and other products. BYD also operates battery making, rail transportation construction, and other businesses.

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BYD (002594 CH)

China Auto Sector – Jun leading indicators: NIO weaker than expected

We summarize the Jun 2023 leading indicators as below, including number of leads, customer flows, and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li...

CMB International

China Auto Sector – May NEV likely to hit second highest in history

Nine new-energy vehicle (NEV) brands including BYD, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Aito, Neta and Leap reported their May 2023 sales volumes on...

CMB International

BYD Company (1211 HK) – 1Q23 earnings as a mixed bag

We believe its product mix, costs from previous investments and price war could limit its NP per vehicle in 2Q23E or even 2H23E.

CMB International

BYD Company (1211 HK) – Fair valuation despite FY22 high earnings quality

BYD’s high earnings quality in FY22 could provide room for FY23E profitability, especially as battery prices decline faster than expected.

CMB International

China Auto Sector – A trough in the short term?

Wholesale volume also rose 11% YoY last month, 13% higher than our prior projection, again largely due to inventory restocking and higher export...

CMB International

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