Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<p>With one week left to go for Hang Seng Indexes (HSIL) to announce the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> constituents as part of the December 2020 index review, we take a look at the performance of the expected inclusions and exclusions and try to formulate some trades.</p><p>HSIL will make the index review announcement after the close of trading on 13 November, with all changes becoming effective after the close of trading on 4 December. There are 15 trading days between the announcement of the index review and the implementation date.</p><p>The suspension of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-financial-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Group (6688 HK)</a> means that we are back our original expectation of 9 inclusions and 9 exclusions at the upcoming review.</p><div>
<p>We see a high probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-overseas-land-invest" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:419:1" rel="noopener">China Overseas Land &amp; Investment Ltd (688 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (HK) (9618 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-health-information-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:453:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao (6862 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-feihe-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24413:1" rel="noopener">China Feihe (6186 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing (981 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-real-estate-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:479:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK)</a> being included in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>, and of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-taiping-insurance-hldgs-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:489:1" rel="noopener">China Taiping Insurance Hldgs (966 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-telecom-corp-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1015:1" rel="noopener">China Telecom Corp Ltd (H) (728 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-minsheng-banking-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8983:1" rel="noopener">China Minsheng Banking H (1988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-vanke-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18368:1" rel="noopener">China Vanke Co Ltd (H) (2202 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:433:1" rel="noopener">Fosun International (656 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-citic-bank-corp-ltd-ea6c25fd-4b20-45cb-a4a6-df7a60136f03" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:653:1" rel="noopener">China Citic Bank Corp Ltd H (998 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-shenhua-energy-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:382:1" rel="noopener">China Shenhua Energy Co H (1088 HK)</a> being deleted from the index.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase (9999 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hansoh-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23675:1" rel="noopener">Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK)</a> are very close to the buffer zone and could be included in the index, which would see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/want-want-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:355:1" rel="noopener">Want Want (151 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/picc-property-casualty-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:350:1" rel="noopener">PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK)</a> being deleted.</p>
<p>In this Insight, we take a look at the updated short interest, the recent performance on the stocks and stocks that could see positions being built up in the week to announcement.</p>
</div>

With one week left to go for Hang Seng Indexes (HSIL) to announce the changes to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) constituents as part of the December 2020 index review, we take a look at the performance of the expected inclusions and exclusions and try to formulate some trades.HSIL will make the index review announcement after the close of trading on 13 November, with all changes becoming effective after the close of trading on 4 December. There are 15 trading days between the announcement of the index review and the implementation date.The suspension of the Ant Group (6688 HK) means that we are back our original expectation of 9 inclusions and 9 exclusions at the upcoming review.
We see a high probability of China Overseas Land &amp; Investment Ltd (688 HK), JD.com (HK) (9618 HK), Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK), Haidilao (6862 HK), China Feihe (6186 HK), Semiconductor Manufacturing (981 HK) and Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK) being included in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX), and of China Taiping Insurance Hldgs (966 HK), China Telecom Corp Ltd (H) (728 HK), China Minsheng Banking H (1988 HK), China Vanke Co Ltd (H) (2202 HK), Fosun International (656 HK), China Citic Bank Corp Ltd H (998 HK) and China Shenhua Energy Co H (1088 HK) being deleted from the index.
NetEase (9999 HK) and Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK) are very close to the buffer zone and could be included in the index, which would see Want Want (151 HK) and PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK) being deleted.
In this Insight, we take a look at the updated short interest, the recent performance on the stocks and stocks that could see positions being built up in the week to announcement.


HSCEI Dec20 Index Rebalance Preview: One Week to Announcement

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Quantitative Analysis

<div>
<p>The H-Share/A-Share monitor is published every weekend for the data ending the last trading day of the previous week. It includes all H-Share/A-Share pairs where the H-Share has a 90-day average daily value-traded of US$1.0mm or more. It shows basic data per H/A spread stock by sector, with...</p>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>H/A Discount,</li>
<li>movement in H/A Discount over 5 and 20 days,</li>
<li>a 52-week Z-score for the spread,</li>
<li>A chart showing evolution of the H/A spread over the last 20 days,</li>
<li>Southbound shares held (millions of shares), Net Change in Southbound (Shanghai and Shenzhen combined) shares held by millions of shares, and contribution of Net Southbound Volume to HK-traded volume over the past five days and 20 days, </li>
<li>There is also a chart showing the average sector spread and the individual spreads within each sector over the last three years. </li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<p>The first sector is <strong>Consumer</strong>, where H/A spreads widened on average 3.5% for the week. Individual stock movement in the sector was striking. All five liquid spreads widened, but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsingtao-brewery-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1296:1" rel="noopener">Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK)</a> widened because the H-shares were down, and the other four widened because of extraordinary gains in the A-Shares. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Southbound investors through the Shenzhen-HK and Shanghai-HK Connect were net purchasers on the week, especially in the auto-related H-shares. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisense-home-appliances-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20107:1" rel="noopener">Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> remain at the overbought end of the 52-week range. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-automobile-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11082:1" rel="noopener">Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK)</a> are at or near 52-week wides, and Tsingtao is pretty close. </p>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>Last week's recommendation was to continue to unwind the Hisense H/A spread, which widened 6% on the week. I also noted Great Wall and Guangzhou were worth a buy on a spread basis and they widened 2.9% on average. They were worth holding onto as spreads.</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/168/642/original/Screenshot%202020-11-01%20at%2012.23.49%20PM.png?1604204650" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="168642"></figure>
<p></p>
</section>
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<p>For Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities, please read on.</p>


The H-Share/A-Share monitor is published every weekend for the data ending the last trading day of the previous week. It includes all H-Share/A-Share pairs where the H-Share has a 90-day average daily value-traded of US$1.0mm or more. It shows basic data per H/A spread stock by sector, with...



H/A Discount,
movement in H/A Discount over 5 and 20 days,
a 52-week Z-score for the spread,
A chart showing evolution of the H/A spread over the last 20 days,
Southbound shares held (millions of shares), Net Change in Southbound (Shanghai and Shenzhen combined) shares held by millions of shares, and contribution of Net Southbound Volume to HK-traded volume over the past five days and 20 days, 
There is also a chart showing the average sector spread and the individual spreads within each sector over the last three years. 



The first sector is Consumer, where H/A spreads widened on average 3.5% for the week. Individual stock movement in the sector was striking. All five liquid spreads widened, but Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) and Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK) widened because the H-shares were down, and the other four widened because of extraordinary gains in the A-Shares. 


Southbound investors through the Shenzhen-HK and Shanghai-HK Connect were net purchasers on the week, especially in the auto-related H-shares. 


Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK) and BYD (1211 HK) remain at the overbought end of the 52-week range. Great Wall Motor (2333 HK), Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK) are at or near 52-week wides, and Tsingtao is pretty close. 




Last week's recommendation was to continue to unwind the Hisense H/A spread, which widened 6% on the week. I also noted Great Wall and Guangzhou were worth a buy on a spread basis and they widened 2.9% on average. They were worth holding onto as spreads.









For Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities, please read on.

Quiddity Weekly H/​​A: Share Spread Monitor 30 Oct 2020

<p>This insight re-introduces a weekly monitor for H-Share/A-Share spreads.</p>
<p>The monitor will be published every weekend for the data ending the previous week. It includes all stocks where the H-Share has a 90-day average daily value-traded of US$1.0mm or more. It shows basic data per H/A spread stock by sector, with...</p>
<ul>
<li>H/A Discount,</li>
<li>movement in H/A Discount over 5 and 20 days,</li>
<li>a 52-week Z-score for the spread,</li>
<li>A chart showing evolution of the H/A spread over the last 20 days,</li>
<li>Southbound shares held (millions of shares), Net Change in Southbound (Shanghai and Shenzhen combined) shares held by millions of shares, and contribution of Net Southbound Volume to HK-traded volume over the past five days and 20 days, </li>
<li>There is also a chart showing the narrowest and widest spread and the average spread over the last three years. </li>
</ul>
<p>In the example for the H/A spreads in the <strong>Materials</strong> sector below, spreads were generally flat over the past five days and were wider by 1.5% over the past 20 days. Southbound were net buyers on average on the H side of each pair over both 5 days and 20 days. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-gold-mining-co-ltd-61153493-5437-47ee-a8d3-aec41fb7f1da" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27455:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. (1787 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ganfeng-lithium-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26795:1" rel="noopener">Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK)</a> are spreads at the relatively narrow end of their 52-week ranges, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-iron-steel-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:204:1" rel="noopener">Maanshan Iron &amp; Steel H (323 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bbmg-corp-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2821:1" rel="noopener">BBMG Corp H (2009 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinopec-shanghai-petrochemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17576:1" rel="noopener">Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical (338 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-conch-cement-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:159:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Conch Cement Co Ltd H (914 HK)</a> are at the wider end of their 52-week ranges. The average spread in the sector widened somewhat dramatically in the month of August as seen on the chart, but stabilized at the beginning of September.</p>
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<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/165/714/original/Screenshot%202020-10-18%20at%202.00.22%20AM.png?1602957633" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="165714"></figure>
<p></p>
</section>
</section>
<p>Commentary is offered for the major movers and influences along with market observations on the sector rotation movement and particularly significant changes.</p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>Recommendations are in highlights like this.</p>
</div>
<section class="figure">
<p>More below the fold.  </p>
<hr>
<p><em>By the way, there are two versions of the Spread Evolution mini charts. Input is welcomed in the Discussion section as to which one is preferred (bars or lines).</em></p>
</section>

This insight re-introduces a weekly monitor for H-Share/A-Share spreads.
The monitor will be published every weekend for the data ending the previous week. It includes all stocks where the H-Share has a 90-day average daily value-traded of US$1.0mm or more. It shows basic data per H/A spread stock by sector, with...

H/A Discount,
movement in H/A Discount over 5 and 20 days,
a 52-week Z-score for the spread,
A chart showing evolution of the H/A spread over the last 20 days,
Southbound shares held (millions of shares), Net Change in Southbound (Shanghai and Shenzhen combined) shares held by millions of shares, and contribution of Net Southbound Volume to HK-traded volume over the past five days and 20 days, 
There is also a chart showing the narrowest and widest spread and the average spread over the last three years. 

In the example for the H/A spreads in the Materials sector below, spreads were generally flat over the past five days and were wider by 1.5% over the past 20 days. Southbound were net buyers on average on the H side of each pair over both 5 days and 20 days. Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. (1787 HK) and Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) are spreads at the relatively narrow end of their 52-week ranges, while Maanshan Iron &amp; Steel H (323 HK), BBMG Corp H (2009 HK), Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical (338 HK), and Anhui Conch Cement Co Ltd H (914 HK) are at the wider end of their 52-week ranges. The average spread in the sector widened somewhat dramatically in the month of August as seen on the chart, but stabilized at the beginning of September.






Commentary is offered for the major movers and influences along with market observations on the sector rotation movement and particularly significant changes.

Recommendations are in highlights like this.


More below the fold.  

By the way, there are two versions of the Spread Evolution mini charts. Input is welcomed in the Discussion section as to which one is preferred (bars or lines).


Quiddity Weekly H/A: Share Spread Monitor 16 Oct 2020

China Specialist, Auto and Industrial Specialist

Victoria Li

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><strong>In the past few months, China's Startup EV brands have been ramping up quickly.  BYD showed marketshare gains in September thanks to newly launched Model Han. However, Tesla might put new pressure on their up trend very soon. </strong></p><p><strong>Local produced Model Y might be launched in November at the earliest, which might put huge pressure on NIO (NIO.US) and Li Auto's (LI.US) sales in short term. </strong></p><p><strong>Model 3 sales price has been cut again and getting close to its Chinese competitor models. BYD Han might be under pressure. However, Xpeng (XPEV.US), who's P7 is directly competing with Model 3, has shown  capability of overcoming Model's price cut pressure. </strong></p><p><strong>We believe XPEV is better positioned to overcome new threats from Tesla in near term.</strong></p><p><strong> </strong></p>

In the past few months, China's Startup EV brands have been ramping up quickly.  BYD showed marketshare gains in September thanks to newly launched Model Han. However, Tesla might put new pressure on their up trend very soon. Local produced Model Y might be launched in November at the earliest, which might put huge pressure on NIO (NIO.US) and Li Auto's (LI.US) sales in short term. Model 3 sales price has been cut again and getting close to its Chinese competitor models. BYD Han might be under pressure. However, Xpeng (XPEV.US), who's P7 is directly competing with Model 3, has shown  capability of overcoming Model's price cut pressure. We believe XPEV is better positioned to overcome new threats from Tesla in near term. 

China EV:  New Threats from Tesla Coming, Prefer XPEV

<p><strong>Due to the National Holiday, China's September car sales data is not yeat available. However, CAAM estimates that China's passenger vehicle sales in September increased by 7.6% yoy, indicating the sector recovery remains solidly on track.</strong></p><p><strong>Meanwhile,  September sales data announcements from local leaders, including Geely, BYD, Great Wall and Changan Auto, confirmed that auto demand keeps warming up. In September, Geely </strong><strong>(175.HK)auto sales increased by 11% yoy, within which its Lynk&amp;Co sales grew by 38% yoy. Great Wall (2333.HK) reported an 18% yoy sales growth. Changan Auto (000625.CH) reported a 28.6% yoy sales growth. BYD's (1211.HK) sales growth remained weak at 3.6% yoy.</strong></p><p><strong>Reiterate BUY on Geely.</strong></p>

Due to the National Holiday, China's September car sales data is not yeat available. However, CAAM estimates that China's passenger vehicle sales in September increased by 7.6% yoy, indicating the sector recovery remains solidly on track.Meanwhile,  September sales data announcements from local leaders, including Geely, BYD, Great Wall and Changan Auto, confirmed that auto demand keeps warming up. In September, Geely (175.HK)auto sales increased by 11% yoy, within which its Lynk&amp;Co sales grew by 38% yoy. Great Wall (2333.HK) reported an 18% yoy sales growth. Changan Auto (000625.CH) reported a 28.6% yoy sales growth. BYD's (1211.HK) sales growth remained weak at 3.6% yoy.Reiterate BUY on Geely.

China

BYD Company Limited manufactures automotive products. The Company produces ordinary passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and other products. BYD also operates battery making, rail transportation construction, and other businesses.

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BYD (002594 CH)

HSCEI Dec20 Index Rebalance Preview: One Week to Announcement

With 6 trading days to go to the announcement of the HSCEI December index review, we take a look at the performance of the expected inclusions/...

Brian Freitas

China EV: New Threats from Tesla Coming, Prefer XPEV

China's Startup EV brands have been ramping up quickly. BYD showed marketshare gains in September thanks to newly launched Model Han. However,...

Victoria Li

China Auto: Sales Recovery on Track

Positive price momentum for China auto sector. Local leaders' car sales in September increased strongly, indicating sector demand recvoery remains...

Victoria Li

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HSCEI Dec20 Index Rebalance Preview: One Week to Announcement

With 6 trading days to go to the announcement of the HSCEI December index review, we take a look at the performance of the expected inclusions/...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Weekly H/​​A: Share Spread Monitor 30 Oct 2020

The H-Share/​A-Share monitor is published every weekend for the previous week showing the 1wk and 4wk moves in H/A spreads and southbound activity....

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Weekly H/A: Share Spread Monitor 16 Oct 2020

Weekly Monitor for H-Share/A-Share spreads showing spread/discount performance, spread Z-scores, southbound buying and selling and net activity...

Travis Lundy

China EV: New Threats from Tesla Coming, Prefer XPEV

China's Startup EV brands have been ramping up quickly. BYD showed marketshare gains in September thanks to newly launched Model Han. However,...

Victoria Li

China Auto: Sales Recovery on Track

Positive price momentum for China auto sector. Local leaders' car sales in September increased strongly, indicating sector demand recvoery remains...

Victoria Li

Quiddity Weekly H/A: Share Spread Monitor 30 Oct 2020

The H-Share/A-Share monitor is published every weekend for the previous week showing the 1wk and 4wk moves in H/A spreads and southbound activity....