China Specialist, Auto and Industrial Specialist

Victoria Li

Equity Bottom-Up

BYD's share price hit a new high and has fully priced in the foreseeable positive effect from increasing car sales, rising market share of blade battery and to-be-launched 'Ocean' series cars.Looking forward, we see more downside risks on BYD's share performance. 1) ASP are trending down with increasing sales of DM-i models and A0-class EV Dolphin, margins might be under pressure. 2) Brand upgrading strategy didn't work so far. Monthly sales of Han EV did not go above 10,000 units and have slid down to 6,000-7,000 per month lately,  which indicates that car market hasn't accept Han's market proposition as BYD had expected. 3) First new model in 'Ocean' series, Dolphin, might not gain enough popularity among its target customers. 4) Chips shortage issue, which benefits BYD as it has self-supply chips, would be solved by the end of 2022, in our view.

BYD's share price hit a new high and has fully priced in the foreseeable positive effect from increasing car sales, rising market share of blade battery and to-be-launched 'Ocean' series cars.Looking forward, we see more downside risks on BYD's share performance. 1) ASP are trending down with increasing sales of DM-i models and A0-class EV Dolphin, margins might be under pressure. 2) Brand upgrading strategy didn't work so far. Monthly sales of Han EV did not go above 10,000 units and have slid down to 6,000-7,000 per month lately,  which indicates that car market hasn't accept Han's market proposition as BYD had expected. 3) First new model in 'Ocean' series, Dolphin, might not gain enough popularity among its target customers. 4) Chips shortage issue, which benefits BYD as it has self-supply chips, would be solved by the end of 2022, in our view.

BYD(1211.hk): Upside from Models and Battery in the Price, Unique Strength in Chips to Fade

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Mazda is continuing to implement its take on the Subaru revival playbook that once took Subaru’s stock from a GFC low around ¥250 all the way above ¥5,000 while it briefly led the automotive world in OPM.

Mazda is continuing to implement its take on the Subaru revival playbook that once took Subaru’s stock from a GFC low around ¥250 all the way above ¥5,000 while it briefly led the automotive world in OPM.

Mazda – Moving Upmarket With a RWD Is a Straight Six

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

Hong Kong SFC reported aggregate short position as of Sep 17. The aggregate short value for equities decreased by $2,689m (-3.9%) WoW but increased by $2,234m (+3.5%) over the preceding four weeks.Most shorted stocks by aggregate short value of positions are Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China, Ltd./2318 HK($3,288m, -11.6% WoW), China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd./3968 HK($2,378m, -13.4% WoW), Zhongsheng Group Holdings Limited/881 HK($1,846m, -5.8% WoW), Anta Sports Products Limited/2020 HK($1,503m, -8.7% WoW), Meituan/3690 HK($1,496m, -15.0% WoW).<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/232/084/original/Hong_Kong_Market_Short_Position_Value_%28line%29_and_1W_Changes_%28bar%29_%28%24m%292021-09-27+18_20_37.png?1632738370" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="232084"></figure></section>

Hong Kong SFC reported aggregate short position as of Sep 17. The aggregate short value for equities decreased by $2,689m (-3.9%) WoW but increased by $2,234m (+3.5%) over the preceding four weeks.Most shorted stocks by aggregate short value of positions are Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China, Ltd./2318 HK($3,288m, -11.6% WoW), China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd./3968 HK($2,378m, -13.4% WoW), Zhongsheng Group Holdings Limited/881 HK($1,846m, -5.8% WoW), Anta Sports Products Limited/2020 HK($1,503m, -8.7% WoW), Meituan/3690 HK($1,496m, -15.0% WoW).

HK Short Interest: Short Spiked for BeiGene

In our weekly HK Connect Flow series, we aim to highlight key stocks and sectors which the mainland investors traded via the southbound Hong Kong Connect, as analyzed by our proprietary data engine.Since the opening of Hong Kong Connect scheme in 2014, southbound Chinese money started to play an increasingly important role in the Hong Kong stock market. In 2020, Southbound trading accounted for 22% of the equity market ADT. We split the stocks eligible for the Hong Kong Connect trade into three groups: HSCEI component stocks, stocks with a market capitalization between USD 1 billion and USD 5 billion, and stocks with a market capitalization between USD 500 million and USD 1 billion.In this insight, we will highlight inflows into Tencent Holdings Limited (700 HK), Hong Kong Exchanges And Clearing Limited (388 HK), Cnooc Limited (883 HK) as well as outflows from Wuxi Biologics (Cayman) Inc. (2269 HK), Byd Company Limited (1211 HK), and Meituan (3690 HK).

In our weekly HK Connect Flow series, we aim to highlight key stocks and sectors which the mainland investors traded via the southbound Hong Kong Connect, as analyzed by our proprietary data engine.Since the opening of Hong Kong Connect scheme in 2014, southbound Chinese money started to play an increasingly important role in the Hong Kong stock market. In 2020, Southbound trading accounted for 22% of the equity market ADT. We split the stocks eligible for the Hong Kong Connect trade into three groups: HSCEI component stocks, stocks with a market capitalization between USD 1 billion and USD 5 billion, and stocks with a market capitalization between USD 500 million and USD 1 billion.In this insight, we will highlight inflows into Tencent Holdings Limited (700 HK), Hong Kong Exchanges And Clearing Limited (388 HK), Cnooc Limited (883 HK) as well as outflows from Wuxi Biologics (Cayman) Inc. (2269 HK), Byd Company Limited (1211 HK), and Meituan (3690 HK).

Hong Kong Connect Flows: Tencent, HKEx, CNOOC

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

In this weeks recap, we look at:<ul>
<li>the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santos-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:711:1" rel="noopener">Santos Ltd (STO AU)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oil-search-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:773:1" rel="noopener">Oil Search Ltd (OSH AU)</a> merger and the impact on the S&amp;P/ASX 100 and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> </li>
<li>the spread on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel Corp (KEP SP)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-press-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9952:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP)</a> deal and potential index flows</li>
<li>the listing of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-heavy-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33808:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Heavy Industries (329180 KS)</a> and the potential Fast Entry into the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> </li>
<li>the potential changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> at the December rebalance</li>
<li>the potential changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> at the December rebalance</li>
<li>the potential changes to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the December and March rebalances</li>
</ul>There are no major index events in the coming week - there were enough in the last week!There were substantial inflows to onshore China ETFs in the last week, while there was finally an outflow (albeit a small one) from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kraneshares-csi-china-internet-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28208:1" rel="noopener">KraneShares CSI China Internet Fund (KWEB US)</a>.

In this weeks recap, we look at:
the Santos Ltd (STO AU) / Oil Search Ltd (OSH AU) merger and the impact on the S&amp;P/ASX 100 and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) 
the spread on the Keppel Corp (KEP SP) / Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP) deal and potential index flows
the listing of Hyundai Heavy Industries (329180 KS) and the potential Fast Entry into the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) 
the potential changes to the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the December rebalance
the potential changes to the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the December rebalance
the potential changes to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the December and March rebalances
There are no major index events in the coming week - there were enough in the last week!There were substantial inflows to onshore China ETFs in the last week, while there was finally an outflow (albeit a small one) from KraneShares CSI China Internet Fund (KWEB US). 

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STO/OSH, KEP/SPH, HHI, SET50, HSTECH, HSCI

China

BYD Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells automobiles. The Company also researches, develops, manufactures and sells batteries, which are applied on mobile phones, cordless phones, power tools and other kinds of portable electronic devices.

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BYD (1211 HK)

BYD(1211.hk): Upside from Models and Battery in the Price, Unique Strength in Chips to Fade

BYD's share price hit a new high and has fully priced in the foreseeable positive effect from increasing car sales, rising market share of blade...

Victoria Li

Mazda – Moving Upmarket With a RWD Is a Straight Six

Mazda is continuing to implement its take on the Subaru revival playbook that took Subaru’s stock from a GFC low around ¥250 all the way above...

Mio Kato

HK Short Interest: Short Spiked for BeiGene

We highlight in the latest SFC short aggregate report that the top five stocks by WoW increases in short value are Kuaishou, JD Health, BeiGene,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows: Tencent, HKEx, CNOOC

We will highlight weekly southbound connect inflows into Tencent (700 HK), HKEx (388 HK), Cnooc (883 HK) as well as outflows from Wuxi Biologics...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STO/OSH, KEP/SPH, HHI, SET50, HSTECH, HSCI

This recap highlights Insights covering the index rebalance space in Asia as well as announcements that could result in index changes. We also look...

Brian Freitas

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