European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Italian savings shares (azioni di risparmio) are non-voting stocks offering higher dividend yields. They prioritize income over governance influence, appealing to investors who prefer steady returns over company decision-making power.</li>
<li>Ordinary shares command higher prices due to voting rights and control, while preference shares are valued lower. In Italy, control is highly valued, thus a significant premium for ordinary shares.</li>
<li>Following mandatory conversions, the two remaining  tradable situations are Danieli (whose mandatory October 2020 conversion seems postponed) and Telecom Italia, trading at a premium awaiting dividends in arrears.</li>
</ul>


Italian savings shares (azioni di risparmio) are non-voting stocks offering higher dividend yields. They prioritize income over governance influence, appealing to investors who prefer steady returns over company decision-making power.
Ordinary shares command higher prices due to voting rights and control, while preference shares are valued lower. In Italy, control is highly valued, thus a significant premium for ordinary shares.
Following mandatory conversions, the two remaining  tradable situations are Danieli (whose mandatory October 2020 conversion seems postponed) and Telecom Italia, trading at a premium awaiting dividends in arrears.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

<ul>
<li>Having lagged competitors on share price basis since Holcim/Lafarge merger, on 29 January, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/holcim-ltd-7f60ceaa-51af-4f85-ac5f-114595eb04f3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27916:1" rel="noopener">Holcim (HOLN SW)</a> announced plans to spin-off and list its North American business in the US.</li>
<li>Infrastructure and housing are reponsible for U.S. comparables to trade on 14.7x median EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA, in sharp contrast to 5.4x median EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA of European comparables. </li>
<li>Even if valuing the RoW business at the lower median European multiples, the spin-off should be value accretive. My fair value estimate of CHF 84.47/share represents 25.7% upside.</li>
</ul>


Having lagged competitors on share price basis since Holcim/Lafarge merger, on 29 January, Holcim (HOLN SW) announced plans to spin-off and list its North American business in the US.
Infrastructure and housing are reponsible for U.S. comparables to trade on 14.7x median EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA, in sharp contrast to 5.4x median EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA of European comparables. 
Even if valuing the RoW business at the lower median European multiples, the spin-off should be value accretive. My fair value estimate of CHF 84.47/share represents 25.7% upside.


Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the SE600 and EURSTX Indices for the September 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>I currently expect 6 ADDs and 6 DELETEs for the SE600 index in the September 2023 rebalance but these rankings could change prior to the base date.</li>
<li>After the September 2023 rebalance, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/simcorp-a-s" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22483:1" rel="noopener">SimCorp A/S (SIM DC)</a> could get deleted from the SE600 index and trigger an intra-review index change.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the SE600 and EURSTX Indices for the September 2023 Rebalance.
I currently expect 6 ADDs and 6 DELETEs for the SE600 index in the September 2023 rebalance but these rankings could change prior to the base date.
After the September 2023 rebalance, SimCorp A/S (SIM DC) could get deleted from the SE600 index and trigger an intra-review index change.


Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Sep 23: 6 ADDs/DELs As Things Stand; More Possible

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As discussed in our previous Int'l Compass (June 29, 2023), we are bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110</li>
<li>Bullish developments have continued: DXY breaking below $101-$101.50, RS bottoming for small-caps, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. (ACWX-US) 1+ year breakout above $50, Italy's FTSE MIB breaking above multi-year resistance at 28,100.</li>
<li>This is only further evidence supporting our bullish outlook. We are getting the breakout above 4400-4415 on the EURO STOXX 50 that we've been expecting. Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials</li>
</ul>


As discussed in our previous Int'l Compass (June 29, 2023), we are bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110
Bullish developments have continued: DXY breaking below $101-$101.50, RS bottoming for small-caps, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. (ACWX-US) 1+ year breakout above $50, Italy's FTSE MIB breaking above multi-year resistance at 28,100.
This is only further evidence supporting our bullish outlook. We are getting the breakout above 4400-4415 on the EURO STOXX 50 that we've been expecting. Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials


Bullish Developments Continue; MSCI ACWI Ex-US 1-Yr Breakout; Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials

Italy

Buzzi Unicem S.p.A., through subsidiaries, produces and markets building materials.  The Company produces cement and ready-mix concrete in Italy and the United States.

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Buzzi Unicem (BZU IM)

Italian Savings Shares

Italian savings shares are non-voting stocks offering higher dividend yields. They prioritize income over governance influence, appealing to...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Value from US Spin-Off

Holcim plans to spin-off and list its North American business in the US, which should be value accretive and could result in a 25.7% upside.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Sep 23: 6 ADDs/DELs As Things Stand; More Possible

Purely from a momentum angle, the top 10 potential ADDs could outperform the top 10 potential DELs until the announcement which is expected after...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Bullish Developments Continue; MSCI ACWI Ex-US 1-Yr Breakout; Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials

We remain bullish on global equities as long as $ACWI remains above $93, targeting $110; Bullish developments continue: $DXY below $101.50, small...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Italian Savings Shares

Italian savings shares are non-voting stocks offering higher dividend yields. They prioritize income over governance influence, appealing to...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Value from US Spin-Off

​Holcim plans to spin-off and list its North American business in the US, which should be value accretive and could result in a 25.7% upside.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Sep 23: 6 ADDs/DELs As Things Stand; More Possible

Purely from a momentum angle, the top 10 potential ADDs could outperform the top 10 potential DELs until the announcement which is expected after...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Bullish Developments Continue; MSCI ACWI Ex-US 1-Yr Breakout; Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials

We remain bullish on global equities as long as $ACWI remains above $93, targeting $110; Bullish developments continue: $DXY below $101.50, small...

Vermilion Research

Holcim plans to spin-off and list its North American business in the US, which should be value accretive and could result in a 25.7% upside.