Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The semiconductor revenue decline took a short break in October.</li>
<li>Spot market prices for DRAM and NAND flash have slowed their decrease.</li>
<li>These are signs that the current market collapse is slowing, although we haven't hit bottom yet.</li>
</ul>


The semiconductor revenue decline took a short break in October.
Spot market prices for DRAM and NAND flash have slowed their decrease.
These are signs that the current market collapse is slowing, although we haven't hit bottom yet.


<ul>
<li>The semiconductor market is now 45% above its normal revenue trend.</li>
<li>This situation is driven mostly by today's COVID-related demand changes.</li>
<li>Eventually the market will return to its normal growth, with revenues dropping by over 30%.</li>
</ul>


The semiconductor market is now 45% above its normal revenue trend.
This situation is driven mostly by today's COVID-related demand changes.
Eventually the market will return to its normal growth, with revenues dropping by over 30%.


Semiconductor Revenues Remain Well Above Trend

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<ul>
<li>SMIC had reported a very exciting outlook in 1Q22, and both of revenue and GM are rising up to US$1,817~1,848.7mn and 36~38% respectively, which is growing at 15~17% QoQ.</li>
<li>SMIC plans to expand capacity in Shenzhen, Tianjin and Beijing in 2022 because of the unprecedently foundry demands. The Capex plan is ~US$5bn in 2022, which's lager than UMC’s US$3bn.</li>
<li>China is still 3-4 generations behind TSMC, which is a big gap to catch up with.</li>
</ul>


SMIC had reported a very exciting outlook in 1Q22, and both of revenue and GM are rising up to US$1,817~1,848.7mn and 36~38% respectively, which is growing at 15~17% QoQ.
SMIC plans to expand capacity in Shenzhen, Tianjin and Beijing in 2022 because of the unprecedently foundry demands. The Capex plan is ~US$5bn in 2022, which's lager than UMC’s US$3bn.
China is still 3-4 generations behind TSMC, which is a big gap to catch up with.


SMIC (0981.HK): Raising CapEx to $5bn in 2022. Exciting News, or Fierce Competition Ahead?

<ul>
<li>In our estimate, WinSemi’s 4Q21 revenue/GM is NT$70bn/38.9% and 1Q22 revenue/GM is NT$68bn/38% respectively . Usually, the first quarter of the year is a low season. </li>
<li>For WinSemi capacity management, the company will expand once they find the utilization being reaching to 85%, or above. </li>
<li>For the inventory issues that some people might be arguing with, WinSemi did not see any sign to worry about so far. </li>
</ul>


In our estimate, WinSemi’s 4Q21 revenue/GM is NT$70bn/38.9% and 1Q22 revenue/GM is NT$68bn/38% respectively . Usually, the first quarter of the year is a low season. 
For WinSemi capacity management, the company will expand once they find the utilization being reaching to 85%, or above. 
For the inventory issues that some people might be arguing with, WinSemi did not see any sign to worry about so far. 


WinSemi (3105.TT): Usually, the First Quarter of the Year Is a Low Season.

<ul>
<li>October semiconductor revenues have been released setting a new record</li>
<li>The semiconductor market, whose revenues have been following a trend since 1996, are currently well above that trend</li>
<li>The ingredients for a collapse are not developing.  The current trend seems destined to continue for at least another couple of quarters, but probably longer.</li>
</ul>


October semiconductor revenues have been released setting a new record
The semiconductor market, whose revenues have been following a trend since 1996, are currently well above that trend
The ingredients for a collapse are not developing.  The current trend seems destined to continue for at least another couple of quarters, but probably longer.


October Semi Revenues Released: Even Farther Above Trend

United States

Broadcom Corporation provides integrated silicon solutions that enable broadband digital data transmission of voice, data, and video content to the home and within the business enterprise.  The Company designs, develops, and supplies integrated circuits for cable set-top boxes, cable modems, high-speed networking, direct satellite and digital broadcast, and digital subscriber line.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Broadcom Corp Cl A (BRCM US)

Is The Semiconductor Collapse Slowing?

One week before most chip companies report revenues, the semiconductor market seems to be slowing its decline. Although the market hasn't yet hit...

Jim Handy

Semiconductor Revenues Remain Well Above Trend

Semiconductors are 45% above their long-term revenue trend. This is poised to continue for the near term, but a big change will occur further out.

Jim Handy

SMIC (0981.HK): Raising CapEx to $5bn in 2022. Exciting News, or Fierce Competition Ahead?

SMIC plans to expand capacity in Shenzhen, Tianjin and Beijing in 2022 because the unprecedently foundry demands. The Capex plan is ~US$5bn in...

Patrick Liao

WinSemi (3105.TT): Usually, the First Quarter of the Year Is a Low Season.

In our estimate, WinSemi’s 4Q21 revenue/GM is NT$70bn/38.9% and 1Q22 revenue/GM is NT$65bn/36% respectively . Usually, the first quarter of the...

Patrick Liao

October Semi Revenues Released: Even Farther Above Trend

October semiconductor revenues set a record once again, making the 2021 semiconductor market one to remember. A collapse appears unlikely in the...

Jim Handy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)