Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>"It is so much cheaper to do simulations than real experiments, so much more flexible in testing...we can even do things which cannot be done in any lab… So it’s inevitable this trend will continue for some time." - Richard Hamming, <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Art-Doing-Science-Engineering-Learning/dp/1732265178" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Art of Doing Science and Engineering</a>.</li>
<li>Richard Hamming said this to the President of Bell Labs in the 1950s. And I think this insight rings more accurate than ever. Simulations of reality are much more flexible and cheaper than observing and interacting with reality.</li>
<li>I will assert that LLMs and “AI” are effectively the logical conclusion of this trend. A large language model is trained on the largest amount of data possible, often the entire crawlable Internet<a href="https://kili-technology.com/large-language-models-llms/9-open-sourced-datasets-for-training-large-language-models" target="_blank" rel="noopener">, all the books ever written, and so much more</a>.</li>
</ul>


"It is so much cheaper to do simulations than real experiments, so much more flexible in testing...we can even do things which cannot be done in any lab… So it’s inevitable this trend will continue for some time." - Richard Hamming, The Art of Doing Science and Engineering.
Richard Hamming said this to the President of Bell Labs in the 1950s. And I think this insight rings more accurate than ever. Simulations of reality are much more flexible and cheaper than observing and interacting with reality.
I will assert that LLMs and “AI” are effectively the logical conclusion of this trend. A large language model is trained on the largest amount of data possible, often the entire crawlable Internet, all the books ever written, and so much more.


Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>The WiFi technology was dominated by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-corp-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:999:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom Corp Cl A (BRCM US)</a>, but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a> has to break into the PC and smartphone markets in 2024F.</li>
<li>There are speculations that Apple might use MediaTek's WiFi 7 solution in 2024F or consider MediaTek as a potential chip provider.</li>
<li>MediaTek will be using 6nm technology for WiFi 7, replacing the current 28nm technology used for WiFi 6.</li>
</ul>


The WiFi technology was dominated by Broadcom Corp Cl A (BRCM US), but Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) has to break into the PC and smartphone markets in 2024F.
There are speculations that Apple might use MediaTek's WiFi 7 solution in 2024F or consider MediaTek as a potential chip provider.
MediaTek will be using 6nm technology for WiFi 7, replacing the current 28nm technology used for WiFi 6.


MediaTek (2454.TT): The WiFi 7 Chip Competition Is Likely to Become Fierce in 2024.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There are signs of a recovery in the chip sector</li>
<li>Memory spot prices are up, and revenues have risen for six consecutive months</li>
<li>Growth is higher than average, indicating the start of another super-cycle</li>
</ul>


There are signs of a recovery in the chip sector
Memory spot prices are up, and revenues have risen for six consecutive months
Growth is higher than average, indicating the start of another super-cycle


<ul><li>A quick discussion of the companies that have reported so far, and my thoughts on the semiconductor stock space</li><li>Pretty much the entire index is going to receive inflows at the expense of the top 8 names.</li><li>Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, Apple, and Tesla will all be cut from the index weight and redistributed into smaller names on <a href="https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/237279/index-investors-beware-the-nasdaq-is-rebalancing-next-week.aspx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">July 24, 2023</a>.</li></ul>

A quick discussion of the companies that have reported so far, and my thoughts on the semiconductor stock spacePretty much the entire index is going to receive inflows at the expense of the top 8 names.Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, Apple, and Tesla will all be cut from the index weight and redistributed into smaller names on July 24, 2023.

Nasdaq Rebalance, Nanya, Camtek, Nordic Semi, Aehr Test, and Positioning

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Nvidia became the world’s most valuable company on 18 June, with market cap topping US$3.34trn, though it has retreated by approx.16% from the peak.</li><li>AI demand remains strong, and Nvidia still dominates the AI chip market with over 90% market share, per GlobalData.</li><li>However, Nvidia’s QoQ revenue growth has slowed (2QFY24-1QFY25: 88%/34%/22%/18%) in the past few quarters given a high base (quarterly sales almost quadrupled to US$26bn in 1QFY25 from US$7bn in 1QFY24). </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Nvidia became the world’s most valuable company on 18 June, with market cap topping US$3.34trn, though it has retreated by approx.16% from the peak.AI demand remains strong, and Nvidia still dominates the AI chip market with over 90% market share, per GlobalData.However, Nvidia’s QoQ revenue growth has slowed (2QFY24-1QFY25: 88%/34%/22%/18%) in the past few quarters given a high base (quarterly sales almost quadrupled to US$26bn in 1QFY25 from US$7bn in 1QFY24). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Semiconductors - Thematic Investing and Megatrends: AI Exposure Update

United States

Broadcom Corporation provides integrated silicon solutions that enable broadband digital data transmission of voice, data, and video content to the home and within the business enterprise.  The Company designs, develops, and supplies integrated circuits for cable set-top boxes, cable modems, high-speed networking, direct satellite and digital broadcast, and digital subscriber line.

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Broadcom Corp Cl A (BRCM US)

Jensen's World: Compressing Reality

Nvidia is pursuing a strategy of broadening its software distribution on one of the largest installed bases in the world.

Fabricated Knowledge

MediaTek (2454.TT): The WiFi 7 Chip Competition Is Likely to Become Fierce in 2024.

Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) has to break into the PC and smartphone markets in 2024F. In 2024, MediaTek aims to potentially supplying WiFi 7 chips to...

Patrick Liao

Are Semiconductors Finally Recovering?

The chip sector is beginning to recover with rising memory prices and six consecutive months of above-average revenue growth, suggesting the onset...

Jim Handy

Nasdaq Rebalance, Nanya, Camtek, Nordic Semi, Aehr Test, and Positioning

A quick discussion of the companies that have reported so far, and my thoughts on the semiconductor stock space Pretty much the entire index is...

Fabricated Knowledge

Semiconductors - Thematic Investing and Megatrends: AI Exposure Update

Nvidia became the world’s most valuable company on 18 June, with market cap topping US$3.34trn, though it has retreated by approx.16% from the peak.

CMB International

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Jensen's World: Compressing Reality

Nvidia is pursuing a strategy of broadening its software distribution on one of the largest installed bases in the world.

Fabricated Knowledge

MediaTek (2454.TT): The WiFi 7 Chip Competition Is Likely to Become Fierce in 2024.

Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) has to break into the PC and smartphone markets in 2024F. ​In 2024, MediaTek aims to potentially supplying WiFi 7 chips to...

Patrick Liao

Are Semiconductors Finally Recovering?

​The chip sector is beginning to recover with rising memory prices and six consecutive months of above-average revenue growth, suggesting the onset...

Jim Handy

Nasdaq Rebalance, Nanya, Camtek, Nordic Semi, Aehr Test, and Positioning

A quick discussion of the companies that have reported so far, and my thoughts on the semiconductor stock space Pretty much the entire index is...

Fabricated Knowledge

Semiconductors - Thematic Investing and Megatrends: AI Exposure Update

Nvidia became the world’s most valuable company on 18 June, with market cap topping US$3.34trn, though it has retreated by approx.16% from the peak.

CMB International

Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) has to break into the PC and smartphone markets in 2024F. In 2024, MediaTek aims to potentially supplying WiFi 7 chips to...

The chip sector is beginning to recover with rising memory prices and six consecutive months of above-average revenue growth, suggesting the onset...