Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

While our base case is not one of significant dollar strengthening, we need to be cognizant of the risk. As such, we evaluate which currencies are the most vulnerable if we get a repeat of the Q1 dollar appreciation and EM FX sell-off on the back of higher US Treasury yields.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

While our base case is not one of significant dollar strengthening, we need to be cognizant of the risk. As such, we evaluate which currencies are the most vulnerable if we get a repeat of the Q1 dollar appreciation and EM FX sell-off on the back of higher US Treasury yields.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Which Currencies Are Most Vulnerable to Dollar Strengthening?

With the market speculating on whether or not there will be hints on tapering when the FOMC decision is announced later today, we decided to update our comparative analysis of the impact on EM currencies during the current reflationary episode with that during the Taper Tantrum of 2013.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

With the market speculating on whether or not there will be hints on tapering when the FOMC decision is announced later today, we decided to update our comparative analysis of the impact on EM currencies during the current reflationary episode with that during the Taper Tantrum of 2013.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: An Update on Taper Tantrum Vs Current Reflationary Scare – Part 1

EM FX volatility has dropped to its lowest level since the start of pandemic, which is likely leading to a positive scenario for currencies. In this note, we highlight the currencies most likely to benefit in such an environment.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

EM FX volatility has dropped to its lowest level since the start of pandemic, which is likely leading to a positive scenario for currencies. In this note, we highlight the currencies most likely to benefit in such an environment.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Declining EM FX Volatility Foreshadows a Positive Environment

In this note, we identify the currencies that have outperformed and underperformed as EM currencies have overall appreciated with the dollar depreciating since the end of March. We also place our outstanding trade recommendations in the context of the relative performances of EM currencies.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

In this note, we identify the currencies that have outperformed and underperformed as EM currencies have overall appreciated with the dollar depreciating since the end of March. We also place our outstanding trade recommendations in the context of the relative performances of EM currencies.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Updating the Winners and Losers in the EM Turnaround

The Mexican peso rallied following the midterm election on Sunday, while the Peruvian sol sold off following the presidential runoff. While the elections reaffirmed our bullish view for the Mexican peso, despite our constructive view on the Peruvian sol we stay on the sidelines given the recount-related uncertainty ahead.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

The Mexican peso rallied following the midterm election on Sunday, while the Peruvian sol sold off following the presidential runoff. While the elections reaffirmed our bullish view for the Mexican peso, despite our constructive view on the Peruvian sol we stay on the sidelines given the recount-related uncertainty ahead.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Opposite Reactions of Mexican Peso and Peruvian Sol to Sunday’s Elections

Brazil

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FX Dashboard: Which Currencies Are Most Vulnerable to Dollar Strengthening?

We evaluate which currencies are the most vulnerable under the risk scenario of a repeat of the Q1 dollar appreciation and EM FX sell-off on the...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: An Update on Taper Tantrum Vs Current Reflationary Scare – Part 1

Ahead of the FOMC decision today, we decided to update our comparative analysis of the impact on EM currencies during the current reflationary...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Declining EM FX Volatility Foreshadows a Positive Environment

With EM FX volatility dropping to its lowest level since the start of pandemic, we highlight the currencies most likely to benefit in the likely...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Updating the Winners and Losers in the EM Turnaround

We identify the currencies that have outperformed and underperformed with the dollar depreciating since the end of March and place our outstanding...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Opposite Reactions of Mexican Peso and Peruvian Sol to Sunday’s Elections

The Sunday elections in Mexico reaffirmed our bullish view for the peso, but in the case of Peru, despite our constructive view on the sol we stay...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)