Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p>We are finding some interesting synergy between a stronger USD/TRY bleeding into EM FX that would align with our bearish EEM relative triangle and physical resistance at the 53 trendline barrier.</p><p>This is an undercurrent not apparent in the DXY or USD weakness in Asia (risk-on).</p><p>USD/BRL macro bullish flat may need more time but is setting up for a macro USD breakout higher. USD/ZAR bull triangle also taking shape.</p><p>EEM relative chart due to break lower vs SPX and must see varying degrees of USD strength that will stems from BRL and ZAR sensitivity.</p>

We are finding some interesting synergy between a stronger USD/TRY bleeding into EM FX that would align with our bearish EEM relative triangle and physical resistance at the 53 trendline barrier.This is an undercurrent not apparent in the DXY or USD weakness in Asia (risk-on).USD/BRL macro bullish flat may need more time but is setting up for a macro USD breakout higher. USD/ZAR bull triangle also taking shape.EEM relative chart due to break lower vs SPX and must see varying degrees of USD strength that will stems from BRL and ZAR sensitivity.

Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

<p>As the US dollar has come off the peak, EM currencies have benefited, including Asian currencies. The Thai baht is among the currencies that have performed well lately as it has been supported by easing of curbs on falling coronavirus cases, signs of tourism picking up, raising of the debt ceiling to create space for further fiscal stimulus, and the central bank turning less dovish. While there is ample room for the baht to make up its lag with the rest of EM, the currency's recovery is likely to be gradual and marked by volatility.</p><p>Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.</p>

As the US dollar has come off the peak, EM currencies have benefited, including Asian currencies. The Thai baht is among the currencies that have performed well lately as it has been supported by easing of curbs on falling coronavirus cases, signs of tourism picking up, raising of the debt ceiling to create space for further fiscal stimulus, and the central bank turning less dovish. While there is ample room for the baht to make up its lag with the rest of EM, the currency's recovery is likely to be gradual and marked by volatility.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Is the Thai Baht Finally Turning?

<p>In this week’s Alpha Bites, we recommend receiving the 5-year rate vs paying the 10-year rate in Brazil; more specifically, DI Jan 27 vs DI Jan 31. The rates curve in Brazil has been flattening on a combination of aggressive monetary tightening by the central bank and lowering of the risk premium on a better-than-expected fiscal performance. Given the risks ahead, primarily the likely increase in political uncertainty and the related fiscal slippage heading into next year's presidential election, the curve in Brazil offers an attractive entry point for a 5s10s steepener to express a bearish view.</p>

In this week’s Alpha Bites, we recommend receiving the 5-year rate vs paying the 10-year rate in Brazil; more specifically, DI Jan 27 vs DI Jan 31. The rates curve in Brazil has been flattening on a combination of aggressive monetary tightening by the central bank and lowering of the risk premium on a better-than-expected fiscal performance. Given the risks ahead, primarily the likely increase in political uncertainty and the related fiscal slippage heading into next year's presidential election, the curve in Brazil offers an attractive entry point for a 5s10s steepener to express a bearish view.

Alpha Bites: A DV01-Neutral 5s10s Steepener in Brazil

<p>The rates curve in Brazil has been flattening on a combination of aggressive monetary tightening by the central bank and lowering of the risk premium on a better-than-expected fiscal performance. Given the risks ahead, primarily the rise in political uncertainty heading into next year's presidential election and the likely fiscal slippage, a curve steepener in Brazil offers an attractive entry point to express a bearish view. A low-risk approach to express the same view is via a butterfly.</p><p>Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.</p>

The rates curve in Brazil has been flattening on a combination of aggressive monetary tightening by the central bank and lowering of the risk premium on a better-than-expected fiscal performance. Given the risks ahead, primarily the rise in political uncertainty heading into next year's presidential election and the likely fiscal slippage, a curve steepener in Brazil offers an attractive entry point to express a bearish view. A low-risk approach to express the same view is via a butterfly.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Rates 10y Dashboard: Does the Curve Flattening in Brazil Offer an Opportunity?

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Macroeconomics

<p>In early July, our sentiment indicators flagged a pending downturn in Brazilian equities as we saw the emergence of political risk in a wave of anti-Bolsonaro protests and new corruption scandals, along with Lula's re-emergence as the favored candidate for '22 (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tmi-snapshots-brazil-macro-sentiment-peaking-pboc-easing-not-a-buy-signal-yet-crypto-sentiment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:54390" rel="noopener">TMI Snapshots:  Brazil Macro Sentiment Peaking, PBOC Easing Not a Buy Signal Yet, Crypto Sentiment.)</a> In addition, we flagged Brazil's hydro crisis as key potential driver of inflationary shock, with spot electricity pricing set to double.</p><p>Although Brazil remains fragile, we are seeing early signs of a bottoming process as sentiment momentum has turned less negative following the Q3 selloff, and is no longer accelerating to the downside after 3 months of relentless deterioration from June to September:</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/233/606/original/BRAZIL_SENTIMENT_OCTOBER.png?1633429628" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="233606"></figure><div class="content-caption">Brazil Sentiment Momentum (90D, STDEV Units) vs. EWZ</div> Correlation between our Brazil Macro Sentiment indicator and the iShares MSCI Brazil (EWZ) has been 92% in the T6M, 48% T12M and 47% T24M.  Brazil underperformed sharply in Q3, down -21% in USD terms vs. MSCI EM's -9%, with BRL down -9%.  Following this outlier move, it appears that EM fund positioning has turned neutral to slightly OW Brazil (along with only 2 other OWs in EM - Russia and India - as per EPFR.)</section><section class="figure"></section><div class="content-highlight"><section class="figure">TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tools text-mine the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </section></div>

In early July, our sentiment indicators flagged a pending downturn in Brazilian equities as we saw the emergence of political risk in a wave of anti-Bolsonaro protests and new corruption scandals, along with Lula's re-emergence as the favored candidate for '22 (see TMI Snapshots:  Brazil Macro Sentiment Peaking, PBOC Easing Not a Buy Signal Yet, Crypto Sentiment.) In addition, we flagged Brazil's hydro crisis as key potential driver of inflationary shock, with spot electricity pricing set to double.Although Brazil remains fragile, we are seeing early signs of a bottoming process as sentiment momentum has turned less negative following the Q3 selloff, and is no longer accelerating to the downside after 3 months of relentless deterioration from June to September:Brazil Sentiment Momentum (90D, STDEV Units) vs. EWZ Correlation between our Brazil Macro Sentiment indicator and the iShares MSCI Brazil (EWZ) has been 92% in the T6M, 48% T12M and 47% T24M.  Brazil underperformed sharply in Q3, down -21% in USD terms vs. MSCI EM's -9%, with BRL down -9%.  Following this outlier move, it appears that EM fund positioning has turned neutral to slightly OW Brazil (along with only 2 other OWs in EM - Russia and India - as per EPFR.)TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tools text-mine the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot:  Early Signs of Bottoming in Brazil Macro Sentiment

Brazil

The Brazilian real is the official currency of the Federative Republic of Brazil.  

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BRL (USDBRL CURNCY)

TRY Bleed into EEM

We are finding some interesting synergy between a stronger USD/TRY bleeding into EM FX that would align with our bearish EEM relative triangle and...

Thomas Schroeder

FX Dashboard: Is the Thai Baht Finally Turning?

The Thai baht has performed well lately on the easing of curbs and tourism picking up. While there is ample room to make up its previous lag, the...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Alpha Bites: A DV01-Neutral 5s10s Steepener in Brazil

The curve flattening in Brazil offers an attractive entry point to express a bearish view given the likely increase in political uncertainty...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Rates 10y Dashboard: Does the Curve Flattening in Brazil Offer an Opportunity?

With political uncertainty and fiscal slippage likely to rise heading into next year's presidential election, a curve steepener in Brazil offers an...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

TMI Snapshot: Early Signs of Bottoming in Brazil Macro Sentiment

Our Brazil macro sentiment indicators are showing early signs of bottoming as we see improvement in the hydro crisis, "peak unrest" and other...

Elan Gore

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