Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/britannia-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16495:1" rel="noopener">Britannia Industries (BRIT IN)</a> released its earnings on April 27th 2021. Apart from the usual commentary, we believe the most important announcement was the "re-launch" of Milk Bikis. 
In this Insight, we interact with a couple of channels to get their perspective on the new launch along with presenting our FY22 and FY23 estimates.

Britannia Industries (BRIT IN) released its earnings on April 27th 2021. Apart from the usual commentary, we believe the most important announcement was the "re-launch" of Milk Bikis. 
In this Insight, we interact with a couple of channels to get their perspective on the new launch along with presenting our FY22 and FY23 estimates.

Britannia Industries (BRIT IN) | Taking On "G" | Estimates and Valuation

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Monde Nissin (MNC), a food manufacturer in the Philippines, aims to raise around US$1bn in its Philippines IPO.It primarily has two main businesses: Asia-Pacific Branded Food and Beverage Business, which sells instant noodles, biscuits and other products, and meat alternative business which includes Quorn and Cauldron meat alternatives brands.MNC has a high market share in the Philippines in the instant noodles and biscuits segment along with a few other categories as well. Quorn as well has a strong lead over its next largest peers in the Chicken alternative meat segment in the grocery channel. In this note, I'll talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Monde Nissin (MNC), a food manufacturer in the Philippines, aims to raise around US$1bn in its Philippines IPO.It primarily has two main businesses: Asia-Pacific Branded Food and Beverage Business, which sells instant noodles, biscuits and other products, and meat alternative business which includes Quorn and Cauldron meat alternatives brands.MNC has a high market share in the Philippines in the instant noodles and biscuits segment along with a few other categories as well. Quorn as well has a strong lead over its next largest peers in the Chicken alternative meat segment in the grocery channel. In this note, I'll talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - The Positives - High Market Share

Investment Research - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Investment Research - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Tata Consumer Products / Equity Bottom-Up

In this insight, we discuss  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-consumer-products" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:258:1" rel="noopener">Tata Consumer Products (TATACONS IN)</a> 's potential to outperform peers in the India consumer sector in terms of revenue and profit growth over the next few years. Its inclusion in India's Nifty index from March 31st would attract more investor attention and investment to the stock. The predominantly beverages (branded tea, coffee) company that competes with global multinationals is now expanding its foods business to address the highly unorganised but growing domestic packaged kitchen staples and snacks/breakfast segment. From Tata salt to Tata Starbucks, this consumer goods company already have a wide array of brands under its portfolio. Leveraging on the goodwill enjoyed by the Tata brand in India and by expanding its reach and distribution wider, Tata Consumer is fast-tracking growth in the foods segment. The potential is immense, competition (national level) is scant and the young company (in its new avatar, name and structure) can make it big if it successfully adapts few pages from the playbook of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/titan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12630:1" rel="noopener">Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN)</a>- another Tata enterprise that leveraged quality and brand to take on large unorganised consumer sectors.

In this insight, we discuss  Tata Consumer Products (TATACONS IN) 's potential to outperform peers in the India consumer sector in terms of revenue and profit growth over the next few years. Its inclusion in India's Nifty index from March 31st would attract more investor attention and investment to the stock. The predominantly beverages (branded tea, coffee) company that competes with global multinationals is now expanding its foods business to address the highly unorganised but growing domestic packaged kitchen staples and snacks/breakfast segment. From Tata salt to Tata Starbucks, this consumer goods company already have a wide array of brands under its portfolio. Leveraging on the goodwill enjoyed by the Tata brand in India and by expanding its reach and distribution wider, Tata Consumer is fast-tracking growth in the foods segment. The potential is immense, competition (national level) is scant and the young company (in its new avatar, name and structure) can make it big if it successfully adapts few pages from the playbook of Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN)- another Tata enterprise that leveraged quality and brand to take on large unorganised consumer sectors. 

Tata Consumer (TATACONS IN): Index Inclusion Adds Further Flavour. Tasty Mix.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Last evening, the Index Maintenance Sub-Committee (IMSC) of NSE Indices announced the results of the March index review for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a>. The rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 30 March and passive funds will need to trade at the close (VWAP over the last 30 minutes of trading) on the day.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-consumer-products" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:258:1" rel="noopener">Tata Consumer Products (TATACONS IN)</a> has been included in the index and replaces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gail-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15263:1" rel="noopener">Gail India Ltd (GAIL IN)</a>. This is in line with what we expected and makes <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-consumer-products" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:258:1" rel="noopener">Tata Consumer Products (TATACONS IN)</a> the fifth Tata group company to be included in the index.NSE indices have also announced a number of changes to other indices. There are 7 changes to the NIFTY Next 50 (which together with the NIFTY 50 makes up the NIFTY 100) with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apollo-hospitals-enterprise" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:880:1" rel="noopener">Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (APHS IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gail-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15263:1" rel="noopener">Gail India Ltd (GAIL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jubilant-foodworks-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:986:1" rel="noopener">Jubilant Foodworks (JUBI IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mrf-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2930:1" rel="noopener">Mrf Ltd (MRF IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yes-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:767:1" rel="noopener">Yes Bank (YES IN)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-baroda" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:545:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Baroda (BOB IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/container-corp-of-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17912:1" rel="noopener">Container Corp of India (CCRI IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/general-ins-corp-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25944:1" rel="noopener">General Insurance Corp Of India (GICRE IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-zinc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8688:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oracle-financial-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7775:1" rel="noopener">Oracle Financial Services (OFSS IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/power-finance-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13579:1" rel="noopener">Power Finance (POWF IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-consumer-products" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:258:1" rel="noopener">Tata Consumer Products (TATACONS IN)</a>.Changes have also been made to the index methodology. The main change from the perspective of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> is that the index reviews will be effective after the close on the second last working day of the review month. The existing methodology specifies that the index review will be effective after the close on the F&amp;O expiry day (last Thursday) of the review month.<div class="content-highlight">This Insight has been marked as Bullish since TATACONS could outperform its peers in the near term.</div>

Last evening, the Index Maintenance Sub-Committee (IMSC) of NSE Indices announced the results of the March index review for the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX). The rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 30 March and passive funds will need to trade at the close (VWAP over the last 30 minutes of trading) on the day.Tata Consumer Products (TATACONS IN) has been included in the index and replaces Gail India Ltd (GAIL IN). This is in line with what we expected and makes Tata Consumer Products (TATACONS IN) the fifth Tata group company to be included in the index.NSE indices have also announced a number of changes to other indices. There are 7 changes to the NIFTY Next 50 (which together with the NIFTY 50 makes up the NIFTY 100) with Adani Enterprises (ADE IN), Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (APHS IN), Gail India Ltd (GAIL IN), Jubilant Foodworks (JUBI IN), Mrf Ltd (MRF IN), Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) and Yes Bank (YES IN) replacing Bank Of Baroda (BOB IN), Container Corp of India (CCRI IN), General Insurance Corp Of India (GICRE IN), Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN), Oracle Financial Services (OFSS IN), Power Finance (POWF IN) and Tata Consumer Products (TATACONS IN).Changes have also been made to the index methodology. The main change from the perspective of the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) is that the index reviews will be effective after the close on the second last working day of the review month. The existing methodology specifies that the index review will be effective after the close on the F&amp;O expiry day (last Thursday) of the review month.This Insight has been marked as Bullish since TATACONS could outperform its peers in the near term.

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance: TATACONS In, GAIL Out; Methodology Changes Too

Across time horizons short positions or an underweight holding of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/britannia-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16495:1" rel="noopener">Britannia Industries (BRIT IN)</a> has continued to pay off. BRIT's core issues have been highlighted in our earlier insights <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-biscuit-economy-key-takeaways-from-britannia-parle-distributor-interactions" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:31997" rel="noopener">The Biscuit Economy - Key Takeaways from Britannia &amp; Parle Distributor Interactions</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/britannia-brit-in-risk-of-underperformance-looms" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:32662" rel="noopener">Britannia (BRIT IN) | Risk of Underperformance Looms</a>.
Our recent channel interactions with distributors suggest that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/britannia-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16495:1" rel="noopener">Britannia Industries (BRIT IN)</a> continues to remain a story of EPS rather than one of revenue.  As structural pain points in the industry continue to persist, revenue growth is likely to remain challenging in the near future. A short/underweight position on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/britannia-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16495:1" rel="noopener">Britannia Industries (BRIT IN) </a>is expected to continue paying off.

Across time horizons short positions or an underweight holding of Britannia Industries (BRIT IN) has continued to pay off. BRIT's core issues have been highlighted in our earlier insights The Biscuit Economy - Key Takeaways from Britannia &amp; Parle Distributor Interactions and Britannia (BRIT IN) | Risk of Underperformance Looms.
Our recent channel interactions with distributors suggest that Britannia Industries (BRIT IN) continues to remain a story of EPS rather than one of revenue.  As structural pain points in the industry continue to persist, revenue growth is likely to remain challenging in the near future. A short/underweight position on Britannia Industries (BRIT IN) is expected to continue paying off.

Britannia (BRIT IN) | Short / Underweight Position Is Likely to Continue Paying Off

India

Britannia Industries Limited manufactures bakery products such as biscuits, bread, cakes and rusks.  The Company also manufactures and exports soybean products, cashew kernels, marine products, and general merchandise items.

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Britannia Industries (BRIT IN)