Research from ACF Equity Research, ACF Equity Research

ACF Equity Research

Research from ACF Equity Research

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Regenerative medicine remains an extremely exciting area of healthcare with vast investment potential.</li><li>In spite of the usual setbacks in valuation and strategy, the sub-sector has pivoted and the market remains innovative and attracts investment capital.</li><li>Rather than replace entire tissues, which is a complex activity, we believe the immediate future for stem cells is more likely to be in the successful stimulation of the bodies on repair mechanisms.</li></ul>

Regenerative medicine remains an extremely exciting area of healthcare with vast investment potential.In spite of the usual setbacks in valuation and strategy, the sub-sector has pivoted and the market remains innovative and attracts investment capital.Rather than replace entire tissues, which is a complex activity, we believe the immediate future for stem cells is more likely to be in the successful stimulation of the bodies on repair mechanisms.

Abbvie Inc - Regenerative Healthcare - Stem Cells & ALS Thematic 10062024

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/peptidream-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13514:1" rel="noopener">Peptidream Inc (4587 JP)</a> has obtained first-in-human imaging studies approval for its first in-house peptide radiopharmaceutical therapeutic program, PD-32766 targeting patients with clear cell renal cell carcinoma.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novartis-ag-8261b5d2-53ba-409e-8628-86d59cd6f853" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27907:1" rel="noopener">Novartis (NOVN SW)</a> has expanded peptide discovery collaboration with Peptidream. The expanded partnership could bring up to $2.7B in milestone payments plus royalties to Peptidream.</li>
<li>In 2023, Peptidream reported revenue of ¥29B, up 7% YoY, with radiopharmaceutical revenue growing 40% YoY to ¥16B. For 2024, the company guided for revenue of ¥35B, up 22% YoY.  </li>
</ul>



Peptidream Inc (4587 JP) has obtained first-in-human imaging studies approval for its first in-house peptide radiopharmaceutical therapeutic program, PD-32766 targeting patients with clear cell renal cell carcinoma.

Novartis (NOVN SW) has expanded peptide discovery collaboration with Peptidream. The expanded partnership could bring up to $2.7B in milestone payments plus royalties to Peptidream.
In 2023, Peptidream reported revenue of ¥29B, up 7% YoY, with radiopharmaceutical revenue growing 40% YoY to ¥16B. For 2024, the company guided for revenue of ¥35B, up 22% YoY.  


Peptidream (4587 JP): Steadily Riding the Next Wave of Drug Discovery

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Karuna Therapeutics Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In December 2023, American multinational pharmaceutical company Bristol Myers Squibb has agreed to acquire Karuna Therapeutics for $330 per share in cash, implying a total equity value of $14B.</li>
<li>The special meeting of Karuna’s shareholders to be held on March 12, 2023, to consider and vote on various proposals necessary to approve upcoming M&amp;A deal.</li>
<li>I expect the bidding battle among big pharma to acquire Karuna Therapeutics and its valuable pipeline of transformative medicines to treat schizophrenia and psychosis in Alzheimer’s disease.</li>
</ul>


In December 2023, American multinational pharmaceutical company Bristol Myers Squibb has agreed to acquire Karuna Therapeutics for $330 per share in cash, implying a total equity value of $14B.
The special meeting of Karuna’s shareholders to be held on March 12, 2023, to consider and vote on various proposals necessary to approve upcoming M&amp;A deal.
I expect the bidding battle among big pharma to acquire Karuna Therapeutics and its valuable pipeline of transformative medicines to treat schizophrenia and psychosis in Alzheimer’s disease.


Karuna Therapeutics: Is The Bidding Battle Underway?

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bristol-myers-squibb-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1133:1" rel="noopener">Bristol Myers Squibb Co (BMY US)</a> is acquiring <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/karuna-therapeutics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28720:1" rel="noopener">Karuna Therapeutics Inc (KRTX US)</a> for $330/share in cash for equity value of ~$14B. The transaction is expected to close in 1H24. </li>
<li>Karuna’s lead asset, KarXT has FDA action date of September 26, 2024 for the treatment of schizophrenia in adults. KarXT has peak annual sales potential of $6–7B.</li>
<li>Considering strong clinical efficacy and favorable risk profile of KarXT, the deal seems to be fairly valued. Current market price of Karuna shares of $318.41 represents absolute spread of ~3.6%.</li>
</ul>



Bristol Myers Squibb Co (BMY US) is acquiring Karuna Therapeutics Inc (KRTX US) for $330/share in cash for equity value of ~$14B. The transaction is expected to close in 1H24. 
Karuna’s lead asset, KarXT has FDA action date of September 26, 2024 for the treatment of schizophrenia in adults. KarXT has peak annual sales potential of $6–7B.
Considering strong clinical efficacy and favorable risk profile of KarXT, the deal seems to be fairly valued. Current market price of Karuna shares of $318.41 represents absolute spread of ~3.6%.


Karuna Therapeutics (KRTX US): BMS Acquisition Offers Decent Short-Term Trading Opportunity

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>On 15 January, Orion Corp announced that its subsidiary PAN Orion Corp will purchase a 25.7% stake in Legochem Biosciences for 549 billion won. </li>
<li>LegoChem Bio specializes in antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) technology. Legochem Bio signed a total of 13 technology transfer contracts amounting to 8.7 trillion won in the past 9 years. </li>
<li>Most investors in Orion Corp would rather have the company focus on its core confectionery/snack business, rather than expand into high risk/high reward biotech business.</li>
</ul>


On 15 January, Orion Corp announced that its subsidiary PAN Orion Corp will purchase a 25.7% stake in Legochem Biosciences for 549 billion won. 
LegoChem Bio specializes in antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) technology. Legochem Bio signed a total of 13 technology transfer contracts amounting to 8.7 trillion won in the past 9 years. 
Most investors in Orion Corp would rather have the company focus on its core confectionery/snack business, rather than expand into high risk/high reward biotech business.


Orion Corp: Concerns About Diversification into LegoChem Bioscience

United States

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company is a global biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops, licenses, manufactures, markets, and sells pharmaceutical and nutritional products. Bristol Myers Squibb focuses on products and experimental therapies address cancer, heart disease, HIV and AIDS, diabetes, rheumatoid arthritis, hepatitis, organ transplant rejection, and psychiatric disorders.

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Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY UN)

Abbvie Inc - Regenerative Healthcare - Stem Cells & ALS Thematic 10062024

Regenerative medicine remains an extremely exciting area of healthcare with vast investment potential. In spite of the usual setbacks in valuation...

ACF Equity Research

Peptidream (4587 JP): Steadily Riding the Next Wave of Drug Discovery

Peptidream got nod for first human trial for radiopharma targeting renal cell carcinoma. Expanded peptide discovery collaboration with Novartis...

Tina Banerjee

Karuna Therapeutics: Is The Bidding Battle Underway?

I see a strong wave of M&A activity in neuropsychiatry space and think the risk/reward of owning KRTX shares is favorable despite the substantial...

Andrei Zakharov

Karuna Therapeutics (KRTX US): BMS Acquisition Offers Decent Short-Term Trading Opportunity

BMS is acquiring Karuna Therapeutics for $330/share in cash, with the deal expected to close in 1H24. Current market price of Karuna shares...

Tina Banerjee

Orion Corp: Concerns About Diversification into LegoChem Bioscience

Orion Corp's investment in LegoChem Bio raises concerns about diversification into risky biotech business. Investors would rather have Orion Corp...

Douglas Kim

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Abbvie Inc - Regenerative Healthcare - Stem Cells & ALS Thematic 10062024

Regenerative medicine remains an extremely exciting area of healthcare with vast investment potential. In spite of the usual setbacks in valuation...

ACF Equity Research

Peptidream (4587 JP): Steadily Riding the Next Wave of Drug Discovery

Peptidream got nod for first human trial for radiopharma targeting renal cell carcinoma. Expanded peptide discovery collaboration with Novartis...

Tina Banerjee

Karuna Therapeutics: Is The Bidding Battle Underway?

I see a strong wave of M&A activity in neuropsychiatry space and think the risk/reward of owning KRTX shares is favorable despite the substantial...

Andrei Zakharov

Karuna Therapeutics (KRTX US): BMS Acquisition Offers Decent Short-Term Trading Opportunity

​BMS is acquiring Karuna Therapeutics for $330/share in cash, with the deal expected to close in 1H24. Current market price of Karuna shares...

Tina Banerjee

Orion Corp: Concerns About Diversification into LegoChem Bioscience

Orion Corp's investment in LegoChem Bio raises concerns about diversification into risky biotech business. Investors would rather have Orion Corp...

Douglas Kim

BMS is acquiring Karuna Therapeutics for $330/share in cash, with the deal expected to close in 1H24. Current market price of Karuna shares...